In today’s post, I would like to discuss the Senate Election as it currently stands. A lot has changed in the last couple of weeks, turning the tide, especially in the Democratic Party’s favor. Many seats once considered safe are now flipping in favor of the Democratic Party. Here is the general consensus.
Here are all the contested seats in the 2020 election cycle. Note that Senators hold six-year terms and of all the contested states, only one senator is being elected or reelected (except Georgia, where a special election is being held).
Of all the uncontested seats, 35 are safe Democrat and 30 are safe Republican. For reference, here is the current Senate of the 116th Congress (note that the green color denotes independent senators aligned with the Democratic Party):
As seen, the Republicans currently have a majority of the Senate seats, and the Vice President, head of the Senate (but has no voting power), is Republican Mike Pence. The Vice President’s role in the Senate is to break 50-50 ties.
Let’s color in all the seats rated safe for the incumbent parties first.
There may be some states that you think should be in the “safe” category but I haven’t colored in yet. I will explain why they are not safe later. All of these states are rated as safe for the incumbent party, and it is highly unlikely that these states will be flipping in this election.
We will now color in all the likely Democratic states.
Minnesota, with the recent Black Lives Protest movement and the state’s leftward trend, now puts it into the likely category. Colorado, though the incumbent is Republican, is highly likely to go Democratic this year. Cory Gardner’s staunch conservative stance coupled with the state trending blue makes him unlikely to serve another term. The current senator for New Hampshire is a Democrat, so it is also likely that she will keep her position.
Now for the likely Republican states:
Kentucky, despite Mitch McConnell’s unpopularity, is simply just not likely to flip. The state’s conservative nature simply does not favor the Democratic Party. It is a similar story for South Carolina; the state is not likely to flip. Alaska is also a likely Republican state, despite the fact that it has had a Democratic senator in history. Texas is not ready to flip yet – although it is getting close, I think it still requires one or two more cycles for there to be hope for a Democratic senator. Alabama is also unlikely to change as well.
Here are all the lean Democratic states:
Because of Michigan and Arizona’s leftward trends coupled with the fact that they are lean Democrat states for the presidential election, it makes sense that they would elect Democratic senators as well. Due to Maine incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins’s unpopularity (she is the least popular of all senators), there is quite a high likelihood of Maine replacing her, too.
North Carolina is the final lean Democratic state. Because the state is getting more and more liberal, along with the fact that the Democratic candidates are very strong there, it could very well elect a Democrat senator. Although I did classify it as lean Republican for the presidential election, it is definitely very possible that the state goes blue this year.
This puts the Democratic party at fifty seats. If Joe Biden wins the presidency, the Democrats will gain a majority in the event of a 50-50 tie, as the vice president is responsible for breaking ties in the Senate.
Now for all the lean Republican states:
The only two states in this category are Kansas and Georgia. The incumbent senator for Kansas is dropping out, and it seems likely that Kris Kobach will be the nominee as the senator. He was previously the gubernatorial nominee in the 2018 midterm elections but lost to a Democrat. Due to this, it also seems possible that he may lose the senatorial race as well.
For Georgia, because Democratic primaries had four times the turnout as the 2016 primary, it makes the state increasingly competitive and could possibly flip this year.
That leaves us with two states: Montana and Iowa. Montana was originally predicted to be a Republican seat, but because Steve Bullock, Montana’s popular Democratic governor entered the Senate race in that state, it shifted the dynamics of the race drastically, making it possible for Democrats to now win the seat. If the Democrats win this seat, they will get 51 Senate seats, giving them the majority.
Iowa, due to it giving Donald Trump a 10 percent margin in the 2016 presidential election, makes it likely to retain its incumbent Republican senator.
That leaves us with the following map, which shows the Democrats just getting a slim majority over the Republicans. However, remember that we are still four months away from the November general election, so a lot could change between now and then.
Make sure to subscribe to this blog as I will be posting more analyses of the Senate race closer to November. Comment below as to whether you think my predictions are accurate.