Predictions Archives

How Might the 2022 Midterms Play Out?

The 2022 midterms are just under 10 months away. As they get closer, we are starting to get a better picture of how these elections might play out, especially as congressional redistricting is starting to be finalized by most states. We are starting to see clues of how some of the most consequential elections of this midterm election cycle might play out for both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Final 2020 Pre-Election Electoral College Prediction

This is it: tomorrow is the big day. In just one day, we will finally see the big showdown between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. This is the last Newshacker Blog Electoral College prediction, and, spoiler alert: Joe Biden continues to be the expected winner in this projection. Already, 94 million people have voted already based on data from the U.S. Elections Project, and Joe Biden has an approximately 90 percent chance of victory on FiveThirtyEight.

Final 2020 Pre-Election US Senate Prediction

Welcome to the final installment of the Newshacker Blog U.S. Senate election prediction. This will be the final prediction from this blog for the Senate elections from now through to Election Day. 91 million Americans have already voted early, based on data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project, and with this year expected to be a Democratic wave year, the Democrats ride high with a 73 percent chance of gaining a trifecta in government.

Final 2020 Pre-Election Gubernatorial Race Predictions

Welcome to the final installment of Newshacker Blog‘s governorship race prediction of the 2020 election cycle. Though not much has changed since the last governorship prediction in early September, I do want to make one last recap of where the governor races around the nation stand prior to Election Day on Nov. 3.

Democrats Have a 73% Chance of Winning the Senate (Mid-Oct.)

As Election Day draws closer and closer, the Democrats and Republicans are battling over who will win the U.S. Senate majority. With 16 million people having voting already, it is just a matter of time until we know which party wins back the Senate. Since my last Senate prediction, not much has changed on the Senate level compared to the presidential level, but there have still been a number of changes.

Presidential Race Moves In Biden’s Favor 20 Days Out (Mid-Oct.)

We are now officially 20 days from the election, and, since the last prediction, it was revealed that Trump paid just $750 in taxes, we have had the most chaotic presidential debate in history, and the President tested positive for COVID-19, all while Senate Republicans try to push through the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court and refusing to pass any coronavirus aid relief bills before Election Day.

A Discussion On the US House Elections (October)

FiveThirtyEight has released its U.S. House prediction model on October 7. With this influx of new data, I believe it is time once again to take a look at the U.S. House elections as they stand in early October. Though not much has changed regarding the House elections since my last prediction in September (Democrats are still clearly favored to win), there are some close races to talk about.

SCOTUS Opening Shakes Up the Senate Race (Late Sept.)

^{Disclaimer: As this article was written before the new revelations on President Trump’s tax returns, the information in this article may not fully reflect the political landscape that has developed because of these revelations.}

Since I last covered the Senate race earlier this month, a lot has changed due to the sudden passing of Justice Ginsburg. With Democrats adamant on not replacing Ginsburg’s seat until a new president is elected in November, the Democratic Party is sure to come out in full force to vote this November. This has shaken up the Senate race by quite a lot, so let’s take a look.

The Fast-Changing Presidential Race (Mid-Sept)

Welcome back to another 2020 presidential prediction. As we near the election, the dynamic of the presidential race is fast-changing, and there will be an update every two weeks on the races up until Election Day. Since the last prediction early this month, the national landscape has changed drastically, including the extremely unfortunate and saddening passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

The House Elections as of September 2020

In this post, we are going to take a look at the most competitive House of Representatives races and how they stand about 55 days out from the November general election. We will only discuss the most competitive house races, because otherwise, we would be here until tomorrow morning if we were to discuss all 435 House seats.

The Gubernatorial Elections as of September 2020

The 2020 Governor Race cycle is perhaps less exciting than in other years, for example, the midterm cycle, where over 30 states hold gubernatorial elections, but there are a few interesting races to talk about. Only 11 governor seats are up for grabs this year, that being of Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Who Is Winning the Race For the White House? (Early Sept.)

Welcome to another 2020 Presidential Election prediction, updated for early September. Since the last prediction in mid-August, there have been a number of changes on the national scale, most notably a bombshell story from The Atlantic about Trump’s comments to veterans. (In case you’re not familiar with how the U.S. presidential election process works, click here for a more detailed explanation.)

Which Party is Winning the Race For the Senate? (Sept. 2020)

Since we last discussed the race for the U.S. Senate in August, a lot has changed on the national landscape. The DNC and RNC have both taken place, and as we head into the presidential debates, the race for the Senate is undoubtedly going to narrow up. Let’s take a look at where things stand for each party exactly two months out from the November general election.

2020 Presidential Race Updates (Mid-August)

Since the last presidential race update post almost three weeks ago, there have been many changes and updates regarding this November’s presidential elections. Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight has release its official forecast, mail-in voting is in limbo after attacks by the Trump Administration on the USPS, and lots, lots more.

2020 Senate Race Updates (August)

It’s been over two months since my last post on the 2020 Senate Race. Since then, a lot has changed and there have been slews of new polls. There are a total of 35 contested seats, one of which is Georgia’s special election. (As per usual, I don’t use the tossup characterization, I try to characterize every state.) Let’s take a deeper look at the Senate elections as they stand in August 2020.

100 Days Until Election Day: Race Updates

Today marks 100 days until the general elections on November 3. Since last time, there have been some changes to all three races nationwide. There have also been a large number of new polls that were released recently, so let’s take a closer look today.

Mid-July Presidential Race Updates

It has been over two weeks since my last post looking at the 2020 Presidential Race. Yet, since then, the political climate in the United States has changed significantly, especially with the recent uptick in coronavirus cases. Let’s take a look at how things stand for both parties in today’s post.

A First Look at the 2020 Senate Election

In today’s post, I would like to discuss the Senate Election as it currently stands. A lot has changed in the last couple of weeks, turning the tide, especially in the Democratic Party’s favor. Many seats once considered safe are now flipping in favor of the Democratic Party. Here is the general consensus.

An Update on the 2020 Presidential Race

A slew of new polls conducted by a large number of pollsters shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden having major leads over incumbent Republican President Donald Trump in virtually every swing state.

A First Look at the 2020 Presidential Election

As of today (June 18, 2020), there are 138 more days to go until Election Day 2020. In today’s post, we will take a look at the presidential race as it stands today. The two forerunning candidates are the incumbent, Donald Trump, for the Republican Party, and Joe Biden for the Democratic Party.

Let’s first color in all the safe Democratic states first. All of these states are almost guaranteed to vote Biden based on past history and demographics.

These states are California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine (First Congressional district only)*, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. Next, let’s color in all the safe Republican states. Again, we can almost guarantee that these states are going to vote for Trump.

These states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Lousiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 1st and 3rd Congressional districts)*, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

_{*While most states use a winner-take-all system when assigning Electoral College votes, Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system. In these states, two votes go to the state’s popular vote winner, while the other votes are assigned to each of their Congressional districts. Maine has two Congressional districts while Nebraska has three. In these maps, only Maine’s first district is safe for Democrats, and only Nebraska’s 2nd district is not considered safe for Republicans in their respective states.}

Although polling has shown that in states, like Utah, Montana, Indiana, South Carolina, and Missouri, Trump is only leading by a small percentage, it is highly unlikely any of these states will be flipping in favor of the Democratic Party anytime soon. Therefore, we will be listing them as “safe” for the Republican Party.

Next, we will consider all the states that are highly likely to vote for the Democratic Party. These states may have voted for Republicans in the past, but based on data, they are now likely to vote Democratic in the upcoming election.

These states are Colorado, Maine (at-large), New Mexico, and Virginia. All of these states are solidly trending blue. In addition, in all of these states, Biden is leading the polls by quite a large amount, too.

We will now do the same for all the Republican states that fall into this category.

The only two states that fit into this category are Iowa, Nebraska (2nd district), and Ohio. Although these were once considered swing states (and there is every chance that they could flip in 2020), because Trump won by such a large margin in these states in 2016, and that their federal and state-level representation are run by Republicans, these states will most likely vote Trump. Nebraska’s 2nd district has only flipped once, too, in favor of Obama in 2008, so it is quite unlikely that it will flip either.

If Biden wins these states, it is likely that he will win by a large margin as well. That leaves us with a handful of states to group as “lean” states. We will start off with the less-competitive lean states first. Likely Democrat lean states are as follows:

The states that most easily fall into this category are Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

The Rust Belt states have always been quite difficult to group, as they have been such swing states recently. However, the Black Lives Matter protest movement, coupled with the fact that Trump only won Michigan by 0.2% (and lost Minnesota), I believe that it is more likely that Michigan and Minnesota will be voting for Biden. Nevada has also been trending Democrat in recent years as well, thus pushing it firmly out of swing state territory.

New Hampshire is also quite a difficult one to group. However, because Trump lost the state in 2016, along with the fact that they have voted Democrat in numerous past elections as well, I am grouping it as leans Democrat. We will group all the lean Republican states:

In this category are Georgia, Maine (second district only), and Texas. Although there is every chance that these states could flip this year, I believe that it is less likely to happen due to numerous reasons.

Although both Georgia and Texas are trending blue due to increased population growth, I think that they are not quite ready to flip yet this year. Although there is every chance that they could flip this year, it seems likely that they won’t flip this year, as there just aren’t enough Democratic voters in either of these states to make that happen yet.

Trump won Maine’s second district by a very healthy margin in 2016 (over 10%), so I also don’t think that the district will flip this year, either. That leaves us with the most battleground states of the 2020 election, and it is very hard to group these. These states will likely be determining the outcome of the election.

Because of North Carolina’s voting history, only voting Democratic once in 2008, it seems likely that it will continue to remain Republican for the time being. Although the race in that state has been narrowing up, it will probably take a bit more time before North Carolina will flip again. Also, due to population growth, the state will likely gain another seat after the 2020 Census.

Because of Arizona’s leftward trend and the growth in population there, there is every chance that Biden will win the state, and pundits are expecting a Biden win, too. As such, I am grouping it blue for now.

Florida is a particularly interesting case. It should really be a blue state (due to a large Latino and minority population), but because so many retired people move there, it has turned Florida into a swing state. However, because the state has voted for George W. Bush and various other Republican candidates in the past, it has a greater chance of being Republican than Democrat.

That leaves us with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Because Trump won these states by such narrow margins in 2016, and these states’ past history of voting Democrat, it seems more likely than not that these states will flip this year. In addition, due to the growing resentment of Trump across the country fueled by the Black Lives Matter protest movement, the chances of the states flipping are quite large.

With that, every state (and D.C.) has been grouped as either Democrat or Republican. The current standings do give Joe Biden a majority of the Electoral College votes. Due to the general consensus for this election, it does seem more likely than not that Biden will win over Trump. However, as we are still almost five months away from the election, there is every chance that the map could change before it. The states to watch out for are the Rust Belt states, Arizona, and Florida. These states alone are likely to determine the outcome of this year’s election.

We will be publishing more 2020 Election analysis nearer to the election. Details on the 2020 Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races will also come in due time. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss it.