Missouri, once a major political bellwether, has slowly drifted into being solid for the Republicans. Therefore, it may come as a surprise to many that Missouri had a Democratic senator as recently as 2018, and the 2016 U.S. Senate election here was very competitive as well. Though the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election is expected to be safe for the Republicans, there is one scenario in which this race could become competitive.
Those who have followed politics might know that the open Senate race in Kansas in the 2020 election was surprisingly competitive. This was mostly due to the fact that Republican Kris Kobach chose to seek the Republican nomination for this race, though he ultimately ended up losing since the national Republican Party spent a lot of money in this race to ensure Kobach would be defeated. Kobach is a far-right Republican who tried to run for governor of Kansas in 2018, and he turned out to be so unpopular that Kansas actually elected Democrat Laura Kelly to become the next governor of Kansas (yes, Kansas now has a Democratic governor). Had Kobach won the Republican primary, it wouldn’t have been out of the question to see Kansas send a Democratic senator to Washington.
A similar situation seems to be ready to unfold in the race for Missouri’s Senate seat in a year’s time. The race is an open race, meaning that there is no incumbent and both parties will be deciding on a candidate to run in this race. One such person who is trying to win the Republican nomination is former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens.
Let’s first discuss who Greitens is, and why he could single-handedly make this race competitive if he wins the GOP nomination.
Greitens was elected as governor of Missouri in 2016 as a Republican, after beating three others in the Republican primary. The first year of his governorship went by without too much fanfare, but in January 2018, it was revealed that the FBI was investigating Greitens over an affair in 2015 and invasion of privacy charges. An investigative report from local TV station KMOV alleged that Greitens had blackmailed a hairstylist into conducting sexual activities with him, and later, in testifying to a Missouri House committee, accused Greitens of smacking her, grabbing her, and shoving her on the ground, as well as blackmailing her into keeping quiet about this.
In February 2018, a grand jury charged Greitens on felony invasion of privacy charges. Though that charge along with another that had subsequently been levied upon him were dropped in May 2018, the damage had already been done. The Missouri legislature had overwhelmingly supported convening in a special session to consider impeaching Greitens, and he announced on May 29 that he would resign from office beginning June 1.
To this day, Greitens denies any wrongdoing and maintains that he was exonerated of all charges (the St. Louis prosecutor’s office had agreed not to charge Greitens if he resigned from office) and denounced the investigation against him as a “witch hunt.”
Let’s now revert our attention back to the Senate race. Incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Blunt had previously announced that he was going to retire, and so we can expect a number of Republicans to joust for the nomination.
In fact, in this state, Todd Akin ran for Senate in 2012, and the allegations against him eventually resulted in the Republicans losing this state to a Democrat, underscoring Republicans’ fears that Greitens is deciding to run. We can definitely expect the national Republican Party to spend and lobby heavily against Greitens to avoid this seat from being competitive in the general election.
However, many top-name Republicans are also deciding to run. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt has announced that he will run, and a number of Republican congressmen and women have expressed interest in running. A crowded field could potentially split the anti-Greitens vote, thereby increasing Greitens’s chance of winning the nomination.
It would not be surprising if Greitens did eventually end up winning the nomination. He has chosen Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top official on Donald Trump’s 2020 election campaign, to serve as the chair of his Senate bid, which could help him curry favor with Trump supporters. Considering the fact that a large percentage of the GOP base are Trump supporters, Greitens could be an appealing choice to them even if he may have had a number of serious allegations against him in the past.
If Greitens won the GOP nomination, it would be disastrous for the Republicans since it would be yet another race the GOP has to defend. Not only are there three other retiring GOP incumbents in competitive states, but they will also be defending competitive seats in Wisconsin and Florida, and, if Sen. Chuck Grassley chooses to retire in Iowa, a Senate seat there. (Check out our analysis on the 2022 Senate elections.) Greitens would definitely make the race competitive, and we could expect a lot of negative ads from the Democrats calling out Greitens’s past.
The prospect of a competitive Senate race in Missouri is fueling Democrats’ interest. Though Jason Kander, the Democratic nominee in Missouri’s 2016 Senate race who lost to the incumbent by just two points, has announced that he will not be running, and neither will former Sen. Claire McCaskill (it generally isn’t a good idea to run losing candidates again anyway), a number of other Democrats have announced bids.
Scott Sifton, a former state senator and representative, as well as Lucas Kunce, a former war veteran and Tim Shepard, a tech executive and LGBTQ rights activist, have publicly announced bids, while Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City, Mo., has publicly expressed interest in running too.
The fact that Missouri could be seeing a competitive Senate race is definitely unusual, but it wasn’t totally unexpected from the get-go. Stay tuned for more updates as we see a showdown emerge from the Republican side.