Thirty-six states are holding gubernatorial elections this November. And while most states vote the same way for their governor as they do federally, gubernatorial elections are typically far less partisan. This makes rating these elections more difficult, as incumbent popularity and campaign platforms play a bigger role here than they do nationally. Despite their status as being less partisan, they are still overwhelmingly important. Control of governorships usually dictates a state’s policy. Wisconsin, for instance, would be far more conservative if the governor was Republican.
To show how much less partisan gubernatorial elections are, consider the incumbents in these states which are hugely partisan federally. Republicans currently hold governorships in the deep-blue states of Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland. (In fact, these blue-state Republicans are some of the most popular governors nationally.) Democrats, on the other hand, hold governorships in ruby-red Kansas and Louisiana (though the latter isn’t up for reelection this year).
The reason for this is that gubernatorial elections are far less nationalized than federal elections, though that may be changing. Politicians can carve out an individualized platform that serves a state’s needs even if they are from the opposing party. New England Republicans, for instance, are much more liberal than national Republicans. Gov. Charlie Baker, Massachusetts’s Republican governor, is pro-abortion rights, supports the Affordable Care Act, and supports extensive climate policies. These are all social policies that are typically supported by Democrats more than Republicans — essential to him attracting voters in extremely liberal Massachusetts. His Republican party ID comes from him being more fiscally responsible and in support of lower taxes.
Other blue-state Republicans are also able to win by being fiscally moderate and avoiding being a part of the GOP’s culture wars on LGBTQ rights, abortion, and immigration. The reverse is true for red-state Democrats. Gov. Laura Kelly, Democrat of Kansas, is far more conservative than most national Democrats are.
It is important to note that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia and New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s closer-than-expected victory point toward a more favorable environment for Republicans than for Democrats.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at which states are holding gubernatorial elections this fall. The following map shows the incumbency of all thirty-six governorships up for reelection. (Six Democratic governors and eight Republican governors are not up for reelection in 2022).
The classification ratings which are used on this blog to classify races are as follows:
- “Solid”/”safe” races (dark blue/red) denote those races which are unlikely to be competitive. The party indicated is expected to win by a margin of 15 points or more.
- “Likely” races (lighter shade of blue/red) are races that are somewhat competitive, but the party indicated still has a large chance of victory. The margin of victory is expected to be between 5 and 15 points.
- “Lean” races (light blue/red) are competitive races that one party has a slight edge in. These races could go either way. The indicated party is expected to win by no more than 5 points.
- “Tilt” races (grayish-blue/red) are tossup races that could go either way. These races are typically classified by incumbency or past voting trends. They will be extremely competitive, with very tight margins of victory.
Newshacker Blog typically avoids using “tossup” characterizations, instead choosing to classify them as “tilt” races based on party incumbency and likely voting trends.
Let’s first classify the safe races. These gubernatorial elections are probably only going to get competitive if there is a major scandal or shift nationally, and little needs to be said about most of these races.
Notice that Vermont and New Hampshire are classified as solid Republican races. This is because of incumbent Republican Govs. Phil Scott and Chris Sununu’s popularity in these states. In 2020, Scott won by over 40 points over Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (a member of the Progressive Party running under the Democratic label), his own lieutenant governor!
Unless they choose not to run (all indications point to them running), they are unlikely to flip. In 2020 (both states’ governors serve only two-year terms), both won overwhelmingly.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom overwhelmingly survived a recall election, and so there is zero doubt that California remains a solid Democratic state.
Some other states, such as Oregon and Connecticut, have incumbent Democratic governors and are solidly Democratic federally. However, they are typically somewhat more competitive on the gubernatorial level. Thus, they are not classified as “safe.”
The rest of these states’ races are fairly self-explanatory. For instance, there is a near-zero probability that Idaho votes for a Democratic governor.
Likely races, of which there are much more of, can now be classified.
The states that belong in this category for the Democrats are Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon. For the Republicans, Alaska, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio belong in this category.
Of the states, Maryland and Massachusetts are flips to the Democratic Party. The popular incumbent governors are term-limited. Due to the highly partisan nature of these states, it is highly likely they will revert back to having Democratic governors.
Maine is one of just a handful of states to use ranked-choice voting for all statewide elections. For that reason, it is classified in the likely column as it is expected that incumbent Gov. Janet Mills will win with a margin greater than 5% after runoffs are conducted under the ranked-choice voting system. Mills will likely be facing off against Republican Paul LePage, Maine’s governor between 2010 and 2018.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is running for a second term. Walz is a longtime figure in Minnesota politics, having served as a member from the first congressional district from 2007 until becoming governor in 2019. He won his previous election by over 11 points. Barring unexpected Republican gains, he should continue to perform strongly this November. Multiple pundits, including The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, are bearish on Walz’s prospects.
Colorado, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Oregon are all expected to reelect or elect Democrats. They have been fairly solid for the Democrats for many years now, and that isn’t likely to change this election even if it were to be a red wave. However, they are typically more competitive, especially in gubernatorial races.
For the Republicans, Alaska is classified as a likely state, though it isn’t expected to be particularly competitive. It is a state that isn’t so much a swing state but rather one expected to elect a Republican by a margin of less than 15%. Also, the state is using ranked-choice voting, which could definitely make margins narrower, but not to the extent of being competitive for Democrats.
In Iowa, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is running for reelection. She is popular and does not have any formidable opponents. With Iowa also getting redder federally, Reynolds is expected to win reelection easily. However, her recent signature of a bill banning transgender athletes from female sports teams may energize liberal voters, making the race more competitive than expected.
Ohio is also seeing incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine run for reelection. DeWine is less pro-Trump than most other Republicans, landing him some primary competition from Jim Renacci, a former congressman. However, with the state’s red trend, the state is still expected to remain in Republican hands, in spite of DeWine’s relative unpopularity among both parties.
A similar story goes in Florida, where incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to sail to reelection. He has made quite a name for himself within the GOP and has been fairly popular in his home state despite national Democrats despising him. In fact, the RealClearPolitics polling average has DeSantis up well over 8 points in polls. Thus, despite Florida’s reputation as a perennial swing state, this race currently isn’t expected to be very competitive. The frontrunning Democrats in this race are Rep. Charlie Crist and Agriculture Commissionr Nikki Fried. Both are at least somewhat recognizable and are strong candidates, but a run against DeSantis is likely tough.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will be facing a formidable opponent in Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke was a former congressman from Texas and made national fame when he came just two points short of defeating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. O’Rourke is definitely a renowned name within the state, leading to some being bearish on his prospects. Unfortunately, his stance on gun control, coupled with the fact that Texas is still somewhat premature for the Democrats (though still a swing state), make this a likely very difficult battle for him to win. In addition, candidates who lose in previous statewide races rarely win again. However, it is possible that this race will get more competitive closer to the election, depending on the national environment.
We now get into the much more closely-contested lean states. These are among the most competitive races, and national parties typically devote a lot of resources and attention to these races. Lean states could go either way.
Three states — Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — are classified as lean states. No states fall in this category for the Republicans.
In Michigan, incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is running for reelection. Once the target of a kidnapping campaign over her handling of the pandemic, she is energized by uncertainty on the Republican side, which is seeing an increasingly crowded field. James Craig, former Detroit police chief, is the Republican frontrunner, but he is facing some internal scandals over a former campaign manager. Along with its counterparts in neighboring Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, this race is high-stakes. A Democratic govenor in these states is the only check on gerrymandered Republican legislatures.
Nevada has voted Democratic for a few election cycles now, but never by solid margins. Politically, it is the opposite to Florida — a state which is always characterized as a swing state but stubbornly leans one way. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak has faced headwinds over his pandemic handling. In a bid to attract support from those fatigued by the pandemic, Sisolak repealed the state’s mask mandate on Feb. 10. Nevertheless, he faces opposition from Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo and former Sen. Dean Heller on the Republican side. Lombardo is more moderate, and so he is more likely to win in a head-to-head face-off against Sisolak than the more Trumpy Heller.
Incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, is unable to run for reelection due to term limits. An exceedingly popular Democrat, he won by 9% even in the red wave election of 2014 and sailed to victory by over 17% in 2018, despite Pennsylvania being a swing state. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the only statewide Democrat to win in 2020, has cleared the field on the Democratic side and is expected to win the Democratic nomination. He is a strong candidate with statewide recognition.
On the flip side, the Republican field is chock-full of candidates. There’s former Rep. Lou Barletta, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, and state Sen. Jake Corman, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate. There’s also Mongomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, former Rep. Melissa Hart, state Sen. Scott Martin, and many others. How this race goes strongly depends on who wins the Republican nomination, but due to Shapiro’s strength as a candidate, we believe that the race currently leans more Democratic than Republican. However, it could definitely get far more competitive, so this will be one to watch for.
We now get to the most competitive gubernatorial elections. These “tilt” races are practically tossups and could truly go either way. They have been loosely grouped for a certain party based on incumbency. Where there is no incumbent, voting patterns are used. These characterizations are very likely to change as Election Day draws closer.
These classifications finalize the current Newshacker Blog ratings for the 2022 gubernatorial elections as of March 2022.
Races in Arizona, Kansas, and Wisconsin have been classified as tilt Democratic, while the Georgia gubernatorial race has been classified as tilt Republican.
Georgia is the only highly competitive state with a Republican incumbent running for reelection. It is likely to be the most competitive gubernatorial race in 2022 and will attract significant national attention. Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, while a hardline Republican by all means, nevertheless is hated by former President Donald Trump for certifying the 2020 election win in Georgia by President Joe Biden. Trump has enticed former Sen. David Perdue, who lost to Sen. Jon Ossoff in the highly-watched U.S. Senate runoffs in early 2021, to enter the race. Perdue has just as much name recognition statewide as Kemp does, meaning the Republican primary on May 24 is going to be ugly.
On the Democrats’ side, Stacey Abrams, the voting rights activist and former minority leader in the state House, is running and has cleared the field already. Despite losing narrowly to Kemp in 2018, she has been widely accredited with helping Democrats win statewide on the federal level in 2020 and has continued efforts to boost voter turnout. She is well-known nationally and her grassroots campaigns makes her a very formidable candidate against either Kemp or Perdue. In this new swing state, the race this fall is going to be a nail-biter (along with the U.S. Senate race here!). One potential unknown is the impact of the Georgia GOP’s voter suppression law. Whether it will hurt minority turnout, which votes overwhelmingly Democratic, is still unclear.
Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly of Kansas shocked the nation when she won a major upset victory in 2018 over Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Kobach’s hardline stances seemed to be too much even for voters in ruby-red Kansas.
Though Kelly won largely because of Kobach’s deep unpopularity, that does not mean Kansans disapprove of her. She is still sitting at above 50% approval, very good for a Democrat in a state like Kansas. She also signed a bill that the Republican legislature passed that limited COVID-19 mandates, so that removes an issue Republicans could attack her on. Her opponent is likely going to be Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who has already received Trump’s endorsement.
Despite a number factors benefiting Kelly, though, Kansas’s highly partisan nature, along with her opponent being a much more mainstream Republican and running in an unfavorable environment, make her one of the most vulnerable Democrats of this cycle. The race is going to be a nail-biter, and we have rated it as tilt Democratic only because the incumbent is a Democrat.
Like always, Wisconsin is expected to have a highly competitive race. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has had a hard time blocking the GOP’s large, gerrymandered majority in the legislature, and he’s faced countless lawsuits from Republicans over COVID-19 policy, electoral affairs, and education policy. The acquittal of right-wing activist Kyle Rittenhouse may help boost Republican voters, though luckily for Democrats, no major protests erupted over it, removing a potential hot talk point for the GOP. This was in contrast to the major Black Lives Matter protests in Kenosha, Wis., that occurred in 2020 over the police shooting of Jacob Blake. (These occurred too long ago to still be relevant this election cycle.)
The competitive nature of Wisconsin mean that it will be very close, and it is currently only rated as tilt Democratic due to the incumbent Democrat.
The last state is the (perhaps surprising) flip of Arizona from red to blue. Incumbent Republican Gov. Doug Ducie, while still somewhat popular, is unable to run for reelection due to term limits, meaning his will be an open race. Arizona is a traditionally Republican state that has moved toward Democrats lately. The race will test one of Democrats’ top issues: pushing back on the “election fraud” narrative, since the Democratic front-runner is Secratary of State Katie Hobbs, whose pushback over Trump’s claims have given her the national spotlight. However, she has lost ground over a racial and sexual discrimination lawsuit filed by a former staffer. She may lose to former Nogales, Ariz., Mayor Marco Lopez or state Rep. Aaron Lieberman.
The Republican front-runner is pro-Trump Kari Lake, a former television anchor. She is hoping to appeal to suburbanites through parents’ rights and school issues, but she is taking it to the extreme by advocating for cameras in classrooms, something her fellow Republicans have pushed back on her for. Her Trumpy stances might hurt her in the general election, given Arizona is a state that Trump lost.
All in all, the gubernatorial elections this November are gearing up to be very high-stakes and extremely comeptitive. Further updates to these races and new ratings will come as the elections draw closer.