Election Day is officially here. After a very, very long, very, very drawn-out campaign season, we have finally reached the last day that people will be able to cast their ballots all over the country. With the first polls closing at 6 p.m. Eastern and the last polls closing at 1 a.m., even if all the states were to be called immediately at poll closing (it won’t happen), that is still a five-hour wait. In this post, we are going to discuss which states and races to keep an eye on tonight, which could indicate in which direction the race goes.
A record-breaking 99.6 million Americans (minimum) have voted already in the reporting states, according to data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project. This is 72.3 percent of the total vote share in 2016. In actuality, the total early vote has probably already surpassed 100 million, due to some states not updating their data yesterday. (UPDATE 11/3 8:30 a.m.: The latest data indicates that the total early vote has already surpassed 100 million.) The states with the highest turnout (as a percentage of the total vote in 2016) are as follows (states in boldface are key swing states):
- Hawaii (110.8 percent)
- Texas (108.3 percent)
- Washington state (105.4 percent)
- Montana (102.4 percent)
- New Mexico (97.3 percent)
- Nevada (96.7 percent)
- Colorado and Oregon (95.8 percent)
- North Carolina (95.4 percent)
- Georgia (93.9 percent)
- Florida (93.7 percent)
- Arizona (92.9 percent)
As you can see, voting in many swing states have been extremely high. As high turnout benefits Democrats strongly, large turnout could potentially swing the election in the Democrats’ favor.
What Not to Focus On
There are a number of key swing states in which the race likely won’t be called on election night, simply because the states concerned require extra time to finish counting absentee ballots. The most notable state in which the race won’t be called is Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is arguably the most important state this cycle, as it serves as the tipping point state (the state that secures a candidate 270 electoral votes) more than 36 percent of the time. The state is expected to need at least until Wednesday morning to finish counting in-person votes, then it could take as late as Friday or up to a week more to finish counting absentee ballots.
Neither should you focus on Michigan. Though the state expects to take less time to count votes than Pa., the earliest date in which mail ballots can be processed here is Nov. 2, which doesn’t leave enough time to finish counting ballots by election night. The Michigan Secretary of State is warning not to expect final results here at least until Friday. Michigan is expected to be the tipping point state 7.2 percent of the time.
Wisconsin is another state in which we’re not expecting immediate results on election night. Though it won’t take as long as Michigan or Pennsylvania to count votes, it will take at least until the next day to release final results. Milwaukee County only expects to finish counting votes by 4 to 7 a.m.
Iowa is expected to have a very close race, so it likely means that the state’s six electoral votes won’t be called on election night. Because of the close race, absentee ballots that arrive up till Nov. 9 will still count, so these could possibly shift the results in a certain direction. Unless the race is very clearly favoring one candidate, don’t expect Iowa to be called so quickly.
A less-consequential race is Maine’s Second District, worth just one electoral vote. Because the race is expected to be quite close here, ranked-choice voting could possibly play a part here: if no candidate wins a majority, the election will proceed into an automatic runoff, which would require manual counting and require up to a week for final results to be reported.
With the Rust Belt out of the question on election night, what, then, you may ask, should you watch for on election night? The answer lies mostly in the Sun Belt.
States to Watch
Unfortunately, the least predictable, wildest, and swingiest state in the entire nation is the state to watch on election night. Florida, the king of all swing states, is accustomed to handling a large number of mail ballots and also counts votes early, so we should know nearly complete results within just a few hours of poll closing. However, if the race is extremely close, recounts, etc. may be necessary, which could delay results by a few hours. The state has an approximately 12 percent chance of being the tipping point. Florida finishes voting at 8 p.m.
Florida is a very important state because it is absolutely required for Trump to win, but not so much for Biden. It also explains why, on FiveThirtyEight’s battleground forecast, if Florida is called for Biden, the election is practically over. Joe Biden is virtually guaranteed to win if Florida goes blue. (A blue Florida also greatly increases the chances of a blue Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Arizona, and Iowa.) If Trump wins Florida, he still only sits at a 30 percent chance.
Right now, Joe Biden is the favorite to win Florida, as he leads by 2.4 percent on the polling average and maintains a 68 percent chance of victory. Recent highly-rated polls, including polls from Siena College/The New York Times (A+), Marist College (A+), Monmouth University (A+), Emerson College (A-), and Quinnipiac University (B+) show Biden leading by three, four, five, six, and three points respectively. Morning Consult (B/C rating) shows Biden up by six too. The exception is an ABC News/Washington Post (A+) poll, which shows Trump up by two points (likely an outlier compared with the other polls).
If the races aren’t too close, expect to know results from Georgia on election night too. The Georgia Secretary of State has announced that unless the race is “very, very close,” expect results on election night, while if the race is extremely narrow, we should know results on Wednesday or Thursday latest. Georgia finishes voting at 7 p.m.
Georgia jumped onto the swing state stage with polls showing all statewide races being extremely competitive this year, with Joe Biden even campaigning in the state. Georgia is now actually favored to go to Biden, with him leading by 1.1 percent in the polling average and a 57 percent chance of victory. Monmouth University (A+) shows Biden leading by three, but Emerson College (A-) shows Trump leading by one. Obviously, most polls here have been within the margin of error, so we’ll have to see on election night.
If Georgia flips blue, the election is over as Joe Biden is almost certain to win. In fact, in this scenario, Joe Biden becomes the favorite to win Texas as well. On the contrary, if Trump wins Georgia, his chances still only remain at 21 percent. Again, Trump needs Georgia to win. Biden doesn’t.
North Carolina is also expected to be another quick-release state. Officials expect up to 80 percent of the total vote could be reported immediately after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including all in-person early votes and mail ballots received before Nov. 2. Election Day in-person votes should also be known within a few hours. Even though ballots will still be counted if they arrive as late as Nov. 12, a winner could be apparent on election night and the state could be called relatively quickly. It is conceivable that if Biden is having a great night, the state could be called in just a few hours.
Should Biden win North Carolina, it is will be a sure-fire victory for him. Again, this is a state that if called, will jump Biden’s chances up to a near-certainty, whereas if Trump wins it, his chances only move to 26 percent. This is because, again, this state is necessary for a Trump victory but not for a Biden victory.
Polls currently favor Joe Biden here: he leads by 1.9 percent on the polling average, and has a 65 percent chance of winning. Latest polls, including from Siena College/The New York Times (A+), Marist College (A+), SurveyUSA (A), Emerson College (A-), and CNN/SSRS (B/C) show Biden leading by three, six, zero (tie), zero (tie), and six points respectively.
We could expect results from Ohio quickly, too. Because the state will announce the results of all early votes cast (and received) before Election Day within 30 minutes of poll closing at 7:30 p.m., that will already give us a general idea of who leads in the state. Then, in-person votes cast on Election Day will be reported within the next few hours. Because the state will also report how many outstanding absentee ballots are yet to be received later on, we will know if there are enough ballots left to influence the outcome of the election. Again, if the race is not close, we will know the final results quite quickly.
Because Ohio leans Republican, if Biden wins, he will, again, have a greater than 99 percent chance of winning should the state be called for him. If the state is called for Trump, he will still only have a 19 percent chance of victory. Also, if the state is called within two hours, it could also give us a good idea of who will win Iowa, because the two states are closely correlated and poll closing in Iowa only occurs at 10 p.m.
Ohio is a coin toss, with a 50-50 chance of either candidate winning it. Polls show Trump leading by 0.4 percent, with Emerson College (A-), Fox News (A-), and Quinnipiac University showing Biden leading by one, Trump leading by two, and Biden leading by five.
A major state could be called relatively early, too, and that is the swing state of Texas. Because Texas is one of only five states that don’t have all absentee voting, the bulk of its in-person early votes will be released quite quickly. This batch of data, because it includes lots of in-person votes, could give us a good idea of who will win Texas.
Out of all the swing states, Texas leans the most Republican, with Trump having a 60 percent chance (the lowest he’s ever been) and leading by 1.0 percent in the polls. Polls from Siena College/The New York Times (A+), Emerson College (A-), University of Massachusetts Lowell (A/B), and Public Policy Polling (B) show Trump leading by four, one, one, and Biden leading by two respectively. Also, a Morning Consult (B/C) poll showed the race tied.
Again, if Biden wins, the election is over. If Trump wins, though, he would have a 16 percent chance of victory. In fact, if Texas flips, it is highly likely that Biden would win a landslide victory of 413 votes. Georgia, N.C., and Florida become practically safe Democratic if Biden wins Texas.
A seemingly inconsequential race, but one that will jump Biden’s chances up to 98 percent if he won it, is Nebraska’s Second District. Nebraska is expecting final results to be reported on election night because the state allows early votes to be counted in advance and disregards late-arriving mail ballots. Thus, we may know the results shortly after polls close here at 9 p.m.
Because this district (encompassing Downtown Omaha) has a slight Republican tilt, a Biden victory here likely indicates a strong performance from him in other regions of the country, especially the Midwest. This explains why if Biden wins this small district, he will have a near-certain chance of winning. Polls from Siena College/New York Times (A+) and Emerson College (A-) show Biden up by seven and three points respectively. Conversely, if Trump wins this district, the election becomes a tossup, with Biden at a 68 percent chance of winning.
If Biden wins by a large enough margin on election night, which is possible, Arizona could be called quite quickly, as early votes are expected to be reported around 10 p.m. Election Day results are also expected to be announced on election night. So, unless the election is so close that absentee ballots received after the weekend could sway the election, we may get an early call in Arizona.
With Biden leading by 3.1 percent and having a 71 percent chance of victory, it seems likely that Biden will win the state. Siena College/The New York Times (A+) and Emerson College (A-) show Biden up by six and two points respectively. A Biden win here indicates a near-certain chance of victory; while a Trump win increases his chances slightly to 28 percent.
So, to summarize, the key states to watch on election night include Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Arizona. If any one of these states flip, Biden is almost certain to win.
Final Update On the Election
To wrap up the final Newshacker Blog pre-election coverage, let’s go over the final batch of polls that arrived on election eve.
FiveThirtyEight is no longer updating their polls page nor their presidential, Senate, and House forecast in preparation for poll opening. Currently, Biden sits at an 89 percent chance of victory, with him being “favored” to win. The Democrats have a 75 percent chance of flipping the Senate, which is “favored,” and are “clearly favored” to retain the House, at a 97 percent chance.
It seems like the lead in Pennsylvania has widened for Biden, with Monmouth University (an A+ rated pollster) and Marist College (also an A+ rated pollster) showing Biden up by seven and five points respectively in the state, while the race has narrowed ever so slightly in Arizona.
In addition, there couldn’t have been a larger difference in polling averages: a three-point shift toward Biden would give him a 413-vote Electoral College landslide, while a three-point shift toward Trump would still leave Biden as the favored winner but will definitely throw the race into a tossup.
All in all, the map does look good for Joe Biden and the Democrats. Election results should start flowing in in just a couple of hours, and I will come back with another update after Election Day.
Check out the final Newshacker Blog Electoral College, Senate, and Gubernatorial race predictions too.
All posts covering the 2020 election can be found on the 2020 election coverage page.