Democrats Maintain a Modest But Consistent Lead in NC

North Carolina is one of the most hotly contested swing states this election season, with a very competitive presidential race, a moderately competitive Senate race, and a less-competitive governor race, all of which are projected to go to the Democrats. The Tar Heel State is a former Confederate state and leans slightly Republican in recent years, but owing to demographic shifts, may possibly be moving back in the Democrats’ favor once again. The state is quite a large electoral prize, possessing 15 electoral votes.

Most of North Carolina’s population is located in the cities of Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem. The western part of the state is part of Appalachia and is quite rural. The state also contains the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, one of America’s most-visited national parks.

The state has generally voted consistently Republican on the presidential level for 40 years, but on the lower levels, swayed more Democratic. In the 2010 midterms, a Republican wave year, the Republicans gained control in the state legislature, preventing any more Democratic wins since by way of gerrymandering. But since then, the state has been extremely competitive on all levels, and with population growth in the state, the Tar Heel State may very well move back into the Democratic column in the next few elections.

Let’s first talk about the presidential race. On the presidential level, N.C. has only voted for a Democrat once (Barack Obama in 2008 by a 0.32 percent margin) since Jimmy Carter in 1976. In 2016, Trump won by about three percent, while Romney won by about two percent in 2012. Prior to that, George W. Bush saw safer margins for him at 13 percent.

However, that looks poised to change this year. Joe Biden has consistently led Donald Trump since FiveThirtyEight began tabulating polling averages in March, albeit by a slim margin. As of writing, Biden is leading by 1.2 percentage points.

Every single pundit forecaster, including The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight, Politico, RealClearPolitics, CNN, Nikansen Center, and 270towin have all rated the race as a tossup, demonstrating the race’s competitiveness this year. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 54 in 100 chance of winning.

In general, polling data have shown the race at a statistical tie, with many even rating the race as “even.” Given Trump’s unpopularity and the chaos at the debates as well as the handling of COVID-19, undecided voters may very well end up voting for Biden this year.

Turnout will be everything here, especially on the presidential level. If more people vote in North Carolina, the state will flip. Analysis has shown that registered voters who chose not to vote in 2016 had a Democratic lean of 19 percent, and the poll of registered voters here is getting more Democratic. If the Democrats can galvanize voters to come out and vote in the hordes, the state will most likely vote Democratic.

Let’s now focus our attention on the Senate race, which looks way worse for the incumbent Republican Thom Tillis than Trump. Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has been leading in the polls consistently by relatively large margins. This may be due to Tillis giving his full support for Donald Trump in recent years, as well as constantly trying to repeal the Affordable Cares Act. Cunningham has seen five to six and even 10-point leads in the state, and on RealClearPolitics, Cunningham is up by 6.0 percent on the average.

The chances of Cunningham winning here are also more favorable than that of Biden’s. On the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Cunningham has a 63 percent chance of winning.

Despite this, though, only a handful of forecasters have classified the race for Cunningham. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate this race as a tossup.

Finally, let’s quickly discuss the gubernatorial election here. Incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper is likely to win here against his Republican challenger Dan Forest. This is because despite Trump winning here by three percent in 2016, Cooper won by four percent, indicating some people chose to split their votes. Since this year is expected to be strong for Democrats, Cooper should have no problem retaining his seat. Many polls have shown double-digit leads for Cooper, and The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, Politico, RealClearPolitics, and more all classify the race as lean or likely Democratic. My forecast currently rates the race as likely Democratic.

In conclusion, turnout will be everything in North Carolina this year. If Democrats want to win (the state is almost crucial to a Trump victory), they will need to galvanize voters to come and vote, as history has shown high turnout results in Democratic victory.

Check out my state analyses on Arizona, Montana, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio too. I will have more of these coming, so make sure to stay tuned.

If you are eligible to vote, make sure you go and vote this November, as your vote matters. Use it wisely.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}