On Tuesday night, Joe Biden and Donald Trump debated each other for the first time this election cycle in what could have been called the worst debate ever in the history of presidential debates. It was more like two people constantly shouting at each other rather than a “debate.” In fact, 83 percent of debate watchers in a CBS News/YouGov poll said the overall debate was “negative.” Last night’s debate took place in Cleveland, Ohio, and the moderator was Chris Wallace from Fox News, who is well known for his tough and ambitious interviews.
In case you haven’t watched the debate yet, you can watch it here, but I do not recommend it, because there was zero discussion on policy issues. If you asked me to sum up the debate, I would seriously call it a hot mess and complete chaos.
Having watched the entire debate, I (and many, many other analysts) can conclude that there was almost nothing positive to come out of the debates.
Let’s start with the constant interruptions and name-calling. Though Wallace said that each campaign has agreed to a certain set of rules (namely, each candidate getting two minutes of uninterrupted speaking time in each segment before proceeding to open discussion), no one followed them. Joe Biden had practically zero opportunities to speak uninterrupted. The President kept trying to cut in, and voice his own opinion. It got so bad that Biden had to ask Trump to “will you shut up, man,” and said, “it’s hard to get any word in with this clown.” He also called Trump “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump also insulted Biden in numerous ways, such as saying there is “nothing smart about you” and continued to mock him and his sons.
In addition, with Trump’s constant classification of Biden as “sleepy” and having dementia, the bar was set extremely low for Joe Biden.
Trump really needs these debates to help change the dynamic of the race, since he is currently significantly down in the polls. Yet, Tuesday’s debate was nothing more than Trump spewing out outlandish claims and false information.
The debate likely did nothing more for Trump but excite his base, which is far from enough to help secure him a victory. Trump needed to win back suburban and independent voters, and he tried to do that by again portraying himself as the “law and order” president, which may help appeal to white suburban voters. He also tried to bait Biden into saying the words, but Biden didn’t fall for the trap. Biden said that Trump “wouldn’t know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn,” and also said that “this is not 1950” and that “all these dog whistles and racism don’t work anymore.” Trump said that the suburbs would be “gone” if Biden was elected.
In addition, Trump seriously went too far this debate. He refused to condemn white supremacy, rather, he called for the Proud Boys (a white supremacist group) to “stand back and stand by.”
A major part of Trump’s strategy was to again unleash a barrage of false information about voting and undermine confidence in the electoral system. He once again spewed out his claims that mail-in voting was fraudulent, without any fact-checking from the moderator or Biden. He falsely claimed West Virginia mailmen were “selling ballots.” It has already been proven that there isn’t widespread fraud as a result of vote-by-mail. He encouraged his supporters to independently watch polls, which is a federal crime. In all 50 states, it is illegal for uncertified poll-watchers or citizens to loiter around polling stations or intimidate voters. Biden constantly made the call for Americans to go vote, as that was the only way a dispute would be prevented.
Biden tried very hard to center the discussion around COVID-19 and other issues around health care, an issue that successfully galvanized voters to come out in large numbers in the 2018 midterms, allowing Democrats to win back the House. He called Trump out for trying to repeal the Affordable Cares Act, which would take coverage away from 20 million Americans and not protect Americans with preexisting conditions. Though Biden did mention Trump’s failed handling of the pandemic, Trump shot back and said Biden would have done much worst. Ultimately, though, the bickering and off-topic discussion did not center around the global pandemic that has already claimed 200,000 American lives.
In a moment when Biden tried to criticize the President for calling war veterans “losers,” Biden’s late son Beau Biden, who served in Iraq, was brought up. However, Trump tried to change the focus of the debate to Biden’s other son, Hunter, by claiming that he “didn’t know Beau Biden” and tried to launch an attack on Hunter around issues such as the Ukraine scandal and Hunter’s past issues with drug addiction. Biden replied by turning to the camera and saying that “my son had a drug problem, but he’s overcome it and I’m proud of him.” That could help build a link between the millions of American families who have faced issues with substance abuse and addiction.
Trump also consistently tried to tie Joe Biden to the likes of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, claiming that he supports “socialist health care” and that the “radical left” would like to get rid of private health insurance. Biden restated that he does not support Medicare for All or “radical” policies like the Green New Deal, which, although may have slightly harmed his support with progressives, managed to shake off all of Trump’s “far-left” policies which Trump has been trying to tie to him.
Biden did not perform terribly well, either. He was clearly not too prepared for Trump’s attacks and unfounded criticisms, despite it being the most predictable thing of this debate. Though he did get better later on, he hadn’t really found a smooth rhythm.
Chris Wallace clearly had a hard time keeping the debate on track and controlling the debate in general, which draws into question about what will happen at the next two presidential debates, the next of which will occur on October 15.
In general, the debates helped Biden. A CNN poll showed over 60 percent of watchers believed Biden did better than Trump, compared to just 28 percent for Trump. Most other polling firms from Reuters/Ipsos and many others agree, too. Biden’s lead has shot up in the national betting markets back to July levels, with him being up now in Florida and North Carolina.
On FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s lead has improved in many swing states. Republican-leaning pollsters, like Rasmussen Reports and Trafalgar Group, show Biden leading by fairly substantial margins. In Iowa, Biden is leading for the first time in months in the polling average. (The margins have improved so much for Biden in Ohio and Iowa that they are now considered tossups on the Cook Political Report, a highly revered pundit forecaster. They were, at one point, likely Republican states.)
In Kansas, a new Democratic internal is showing Barbara Bollier up by two points. In South Carolina, a Quinnipiac University poll (B+ rated) is showing Trump ahead by just one percent and an even Senate race.
All in all, the debates have benefited Biden significantly more than Trump. Let’s now all hope that the second debate won’t be quite as disastrous as this one. Make sure to also check out my Senate and Presidential forecasts. Subscribe so you don’t miss any posts.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.
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