The Longest-Lasting Bellwether State of Ohio: Will It Last?

The Buckeye State has been the longest political bellwether on the presidential level, having voted with the eventual president every year perfectly since 1964. (In fact, it has only not done so four times since 1860: in 1884, 1892, 1944, and 1960.) In fact, no Republican has ever won an election without having carried Ohio. As a result of this and a similar split in party registration, Ohio is a key battleground state in the Rust Belt, heavily targeted by presidential campaigns.

Ohio is a part of the Rust Belt and was once home to a booming manufacturing industry. As Ohio’s importance declined, though, so too did its population. It has been losing electoral votes in recent censuses, now leaving it with just 18 (although that is still a sizable amount). In general, the large cities of Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, and Dayton lean Democratic, while the rest of the state, consisting mostly of smaller towns and rural areas, leans Republican.

Ohio has no U.S. Senate race this year, and there is only one slightly competitive U.S. House race due to gerrymandering by the Republicans.

Make sure to also check out my presidential forecast for late September. My Senate forecast can be seen here too.

Historically, voting margins in Ohio were very close, usually within five percentage points. The table below shows the winning margins for each presidential candidate since 1964 (all were for the eventual winner):

As seen, in recent years, the safest margin seen by a candidate was Donald Trump in 2016. This has made some people worried about a drastic rightward shift in Ohio, which could result in it losing its bellwether status and swing-state status. In addition, the fact that the state is 79 percent white may contribute to a possible rightward shift.

However, because 2016 saw such a drastic rightward shift in most of the country compared to 2012 (especially in the Rust Belt), it is still possible that Ohio swings back to Joe Biden this November.

As it is a fairly large electoral prize (18 electoral votes), the state has been heavily targeted by both the Trump and Biden presidential campaigns. They have spent $9.9 million and $7.2 million so far in the state respectively. However, probably due to campaign financing issues, Donald Trump chose to withdraw ads from this state in September. This isn’t great news for the Trump campaign, since Ohio is needed in every single scenario in which Trump wins. Though he may reinstate ads later on, the decision to withdraw ads here so early on may come back to bite him.

In fact, some of that is starting to show in the polls. Biden is now once again ahead of Trump in the polls, by a margin of 1.2 percent (this was before low-quality pollsters skewed the average to 0.2 percent for Biden).

Biden has now been leading in a number of recent polls, such as from Fox News (A- rated pollster) showing Biden up by five percent among both registered voters and likely voters, the latter category which typically skews right. In a Quinnipiac University poll (B+ rated) and a Baldwin Wallace University poll (C/D rated), he is up by one percent. And even more of note is a Rasmussen Reports poll, a Republican-leaning pollster, showing Biden ahead by four points in the state.

The Cook Political Report has also moved the race from lean Republican to tossup. As the race continues to move in Biden’s favor here, we may see more pundit forecasters move the race out of the lean/tilt Republican column and into a tossup. This may mean that Ohio won’t lose its streak of voting for the national election winner.

This recent surge in polls showing Biden leading is translating well into the FiveThirtyEight forecast, too. Right now, the probability of Biden winning here is 52 percent, which is classified as a tossup.

This now adds Ohio into the same column as North Carolina, Maine’s Second District (which also recently flipped blue), Florida, and so on. This is quite significant for Joe Biden as he has been behind on the forecast odds for a very long time, only recently flipping back to him.

The expected popular vote share on FiveThirtyEight is very close, with 49.6 percent of voters voting for Biden and 49.4 percent voting for Trump.

Whether or not Amy Barrett is confirmed to the Supreme Court will probably affect things. It will certainly galvanize voters to come out in the masses to vote in this swing state. And with Trump’s record of not having done much to save manufacturing jobs in the area (especially General Motors closing its Ohio plant in Sept. 2019), it will certainly be a problem for him. The labor force was also hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic—at its peak, it rose to beyond 17 percent. It is now at about 11 percent.

And with the debates being a major disaster for Trump, it seems more and more unlikely he will be able to improve just one month out.

In any case, Ohio will be a difficult state to call this November. Though it isn’t crucial for Biden to win Ohio in order to win the election, it absolutely is for Trump. If Trump loses Ohio, his reelection chances plummet down to almost zero. This will be a key state to watch this November.

I plan to do more state analyses as Election Day nears. I have already covered Iowa, Arizona, Montana, and Florida.

If you are eligible to vote this November, make sure you cast your vote. It is very important that you vote in this election. Treasure your vote and use it wisely.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}