In most people’s eyes, Montana is a solidly Republican state, having voted for the Republican president every election since 1992 (and prior to that, 1964). But just dig slightly deeper, and you will find that Montana is not actually that solid for the Republicans at all.
Let’s take a look at Montana as it stands today. It has a Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, who is also running for the U.S. Senate this year. It has one Democratic and one Republican senator. Its single congressmen is Republican. Clearly, Montana’s split-ticket voting pattern can be seen.
Due to its population growth, Montana is also poised to gain one new House district this year.
On the presidential level, Montana is safe, or at least likely, for the Republicans. There is no getting around this one. It is almost certain to go to President Trump this year, but he is not winning it by a safe margin this year. The latest Siena College/New York Times poll (A+ rated pollster) is showing Trump up by seven percent in the state. The FiveThirtyEight polling average is showing Trump up by eight percent. It is, therefore, safe to assure that Montana will be voting Republican on the presidential level regardless of the margin.
But down-ballot is where Montana starts to get interesting.
As mentioned above, Montana currently has one Democratic senator, Jon Tester. He has served in that position since 2006, having most recently won reelection in 2018 by a margin of about four percent. This year, Montana is seeing a competitive Senate race: the current incumbent, Steve Daines, a Republican, is being challenged by Steve Bullock, the state’s current Democratic governor.
Should Steve Bullock not be running, this race would not have in the slightest bit been competitive. In fact, before Bullock announced his bid to run for the U.S. Senate, the race was considered to be likely Republican. It is now a tossup, due to the fact that Bullock has been a very popular governor. It is seen as a possible pickup for the Democrats.
Also, because there are no Libertarian or Green Party candidates on the ballot for senator this year, there will be no third-party “spoilers” for either side.
Though Daines is having a slight edge in the state, the race is certainly close and just a polling error away from flipping. The Siena College poll mentioned above, for instance, is showing Daines just up by one percent in the state. One percent. And RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight are all showing Daines up by just the slightest of margins, too. Daines is up by just two and three percent respectively. (Check out my Senate prediction for early September, too.)
Many pundit forecasters, like the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Politico are rating the race as a tossup. Others, like Sabato’s Crystal Ball and FiveThirtyEight, rate it as lean and tilt Republican respectively. (The Crystal Ball does not use the tilt characterization.)
Whether or not Daines will gain or lose should Mitch McConnell try to force through a Supreme Court justice nominee is unclear as of right now. Either way, it will certainly spur voters out.
As a result, this Senate race is certainly one to be keeping a close eye on. This seat, along with Iowa’s Senate race, is seen as one of two races that could possibly give Democrats 51 Senate seats, a majority even if Trump is reelected.
Let’s now switch our attention to Montana’s House race, which is also very competitive this year, though slightly favored for the GOP. Again, the race is competitive due to Montana’s trend of split-ballot voting.
This will be an open race as the incumbent Republican, Greg Gianforte, is not running to be reelected, instead running to become the Governor of Montana. Again, there are no third-party candidates on the ballot. The current candidates for the race are Matt Rosendale for the Republicans and Kathleen Williams for the Democrats.
Both do have at least some name recognition in the state. Rosendale is the Montana state auditor and ran for both the U.S. Senate (in 2018) and the U.S. House (in 2014) before. Williams was a former state representative and ran for the U.S. House in 2018.
This is also an extremely expensive race for both parties. Williams is the sixth-best funded Democrat for an open U.S. House seat for this year. As of June 30 (the latest data available), she’s raised $2.4 million, ahead of her 2018 fundraising pace and far ahead of Rosendale’s $1.8 million.
Most forecasters are predicting this race to be lean Republican. The seat is favored to go to Republicans, so it seems about right.
Though this House race will be interesting, in the bigger picture, it isn’t too big of a deal, as the Democrats are almost certain to retain the House of Representatives this year. Whether or not this seat flips for the Democrats should not be a cause for concern.
In conclusion, Montana is a very interesting state due to its down-ballot races. The Senate race here will be one of the most highly-contested and important Senate races of the year. It will be interesting to see how races in the Treasure State play out.
I plan on doing these “state analyses” to most swing states before November 3, including Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, the Rust Belt states, and more. I have already covered Arizona.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.
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