As Election Day draws closer and closer, the Democrats and Republicans are battling over who will win the U.S. Senate majority. With 16 million people having voting already, it is just a matter of time until we know which party wins back the Senate. Since my last Senate prediction, not much has changed on the Senate level compared to the presidential level, but there have still been a number of changes.
It is worth noting that the Democrats are currently leading on all fronts nationally. For the Senate, FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast gives the Democrats a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, a five-point increase from just the week before and moving from “slightly favored” to “favored.” Note that since Joe Biden is the favorite to win the presidency at 87 percent, the Democrats need only 50 seats to earn a majority in the Senate as the Vice President, the head of the Senate, gives the majority to his or her own party.
Note that FiveThirtyEight has three versions of their Senate forecast: Lite, Classic, and Deluxe. The Lite model only takes into account of polling data, the Classic model takes into account polling data, fundraising, demographics, and more, and the Deluxe model, the most accurate one, takes into account other pundit forecaster’s ratings as well. We will be using the Deluxe forecast throughout this prediction.
Senate races are classified according to how much a candidate is expected to win by. If the winning margin is expected to be over 15 percent, the state is safe (darkest color). If the margin is anywhere from five to 15 percent, the state is likely. Anywhere from one to five percent is lean, and if the race is expected to be within one percent, it is considered tilt (lightest color).
Also, in case you’re not familiar with how the U.S. Senate is elected, one-third of the senators are elected every two years, and each senator serves a six-year term. Each state has two senators.
Arizona and one of Georgia’s Senate elections are a special election, meaning that due to a retirement, those Senate seats are up for election early. The incumbents in these races are all appointed by the governor when the previous senator quit or retired.
We’ll start off by classifying all the safe states.
In a normal year, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Virginia probably wouldn’t be considered safe, but this year is expected to be a Democratic wave year. The Democratic incumbents in all three of these states, Ben Luján, Jeanne Shaheen, and Mark Warner, are all expected to win by a very solid margin. All three of these candidates have a 94, 98, and 99 percent chance of winning respectively. Polls are also showing solid leads for each candidate. The Democrats have also locked these states down on the presidential level.
The rest of these states aren’t too surprising. We will not waste any more time discussing the safe states as they almost certainly won’t be flipping. We’ll move on to the likely states next.
We’ll start with Minnesota. This state is extremely solid for the Democrats and the incumbent, Tina Smith, has a 93 percent chance of retaining her seat. Considering the state also voted for Clinton in 2016, there is almost no argument over whether this seat will remain for the Democrats. Polling data is showing a very solid lead for Smith, up in the high single digits or even double digits.
Michigan is also similar to Minnesota. The incumbent, Gary Peters, has a 79 percent chance of keeping his seat. Realistically, though the state voted for Donald Trump by a 0.27 percent margin four years ago, the Democrats have practically locked the Rust Belt down this year, and in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state, Peters should have no trouble winning over Republican John James.
Colorado is a state that has moved further and further to the left, so much so that it’s almost no longer considered a swing state. The incumbent Republican, Cory Gardner, is extremely unpopular with Coloradans because of his staunch support of President Trump, someone who lost the state five percent in 2016. The Democratic challenger, John Hickenlooper, is an extremely strong and well-known candidate for the state, and with a 78 percent chance of winning, he should have no trouble cruising to victory this November.
Arizona is a state that is gradually moving leftward due to population growth, especially around the Phoenix metropolitan area. In the 2018 midterms, the state voted in a Democratic senator for the first time in decades, as well as giving the Democrats a majority in the state’s U.S. House delegations. Because the incumbent Republican senator Martha McSally was appointed after John McCain’s death in 2018, not only does she not get an incumbent advantage, but she also lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 Senate election here. It was probably a bad choice for the governor to appoint a loser of an election here, because Democrat Mark Kelly, another well-known name in the state, now has a 78 percent chance of winning. Kelly may also be helping Joe Biden in the state. Every recent poll has shown Kelly leading.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Senate race in Texas is nowhere near as competitive as it is on the presidential level. The reason is simple: the Democratic challenger, M.J. Hegar, is simply not very well-known in the state compared to Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who lost to Ted Cruz by just three percent in the 2018 midterms. Without the name recognition the O’Rourke has, Hegar faces a steep uphill battle to win against incumbent John Cornyn (R). Though the race is within single digits as per polling data below, Cornyn is still expected to win 87 percent of the time.
Alabama is the first flip of this election, and the only expected seat to flip for the Republicans. The incumbent, Doug Jones (D), was voted in during a 2017 special election by an extremely narrow margin because his opponent then faced a number of serious child-molestation scandals. With the Republican nominee this year, Tommy Tuberville, not having any major scandals and having the President’s full support, this deep-red, Bible Belt state is probably going to vote in Tuberville. Though Jones is by no means a bad candidate, due to the extremely conservative nature of this state, it is very difficult for him to convince that many white religious Republican voters to vote for him. In fact, the Republicans’ ads in this state simply mention that Jones is a Democrat (and they expect to win with just such an ad). That should tell you how truly conservative Alabama is, and why Tuberville enjoys a 75 percent chance of flipping over this seat. As seen in the polls below, Tuberville is fairly significantly ahead. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Politico rate this race as lean Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it as likely.
Though Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is deeply unpopular, again, due to the conservative nature of Kentucky, he seems poised to retain his seat. This is because there is a lot of party-line voting in these states, and no matter who runs, the Republican is practically poised to win. The state is classified as likely not because it is competitive for Amy McGrath (McConnell has a 96 percent chance of winning), the Democratic challenger, but because I expect it to go to McConnell by a margin of less than 15 percent (maybe 13 or 14 percent).
A similar story goes for Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, which is a solid red Bible Belt state. For Mike Espy to even have a chance to win, he will need to massively ramp up Black turnout, something that is easier said than done in a state that traditionally disenfranchises minority voters and avoids mail-in voting. A number of polls have shown the race tightening up, but Hyde-Smith is still the clear favorite to win, at a 91 percent chance of winning.
The last state in this column is Alaska. Interestingly, Sabato’s Crystal Ball actually has the race rated as lean Republican, and based on polling data, the race is expected to be a fairly close one, with the average being a lean margin for incumbent Dan Sullivan, while the expected popular vote margin expected to be seven percent. Unless Native American turnout is very high, challenger Al Gross will face an extremely uphill battle to win. Sullivan has a 77 percent chance of winning. A Siena College/The New York Times poll will be released in the coming days, so we will get a better picture soon.
We’ll now discuss the lean states. Based on the lean state characterizations, if Joe Biden wins the presidency, the Democrats will have a Senate majority.
It may be surprising to you that Kansas is a lean Republican seat if you haven’t followed this election closely, considering Kansas is a typical Republican state in the Great Plains. This is an open race. Prior to the Republican primary, Kris Kobach, a far-right former Kansas Secretary of State, seemed to be the frontrunner. In addition, Kobach lost the governor race in 2018 to a Democrat, which shows how unpopular he is. As a result, Barbara Bollier, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, saw her numbers rise. However, Kobach lost the primary, in a stunning upset, to Roger Marshall, the current congressman for Kansas’s first congressional district, who is much more moderate compared to Kobach. Despite this, though, Marshall hasn’t seen his numbers rise significantly, and many polls show the race within low single digits. As a result, Marshall only has a 74 percent chance of winning, which is stunningly low considering this is the state of Kansas. Anyhow, this race will be one worth watching.
The other lean Republican state is Montana. Montana isn’t actually as Republican as it seems: the state has a Democratic governor and the other U.S. Senator is Democratic. This year, incumbent Republican Steve Daines will be trying to defend his seat from Democratic challenger Steve Bullock, who is the state’s current (and very popular) governor. Though Bullock had better showings in the polls before, Republicans have spent a lot of money here, resulting in Daines now leading slightly. This isn’t an impossible lead for the Democrats to overcome, though, and it is still very much on the Democrats’ radar as a pickup opportunity. This seat is rated as a tossup by some pundit forecasters, such as The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Politico, and 270towin. Daines has a 68 percent chance of retaining his seat.
Maine continues to be a lean Democratic pickup, where longtime incumbent Susan Collins (R) faces the fight of her career. She has long defended herself as a very bipartisan politician, and that has allowed her to remain in power even as the state is quite liberal. Unfortunately, after Donald Trump took power, she voted to confirm two of Trump’s nominees onto the Supreme Court, significantly damaging her reputation in the state. Even though she voted against repealing the Affordable Care Act and has already stated her opposition to Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court, the damage seems to have been done already. Her challenger, Sara Gideon, is the Maine Speaker of the House and is very well-known in the state. Polling data has been solid for Sara Gideon, and she has a 63 percent chance of winning the state.
The other lean Democratic state is North Carolina. Though extremely competitive on the presidential level, the incumbent, Thom Tillis (R) is not particularly popular with his constituents. Despite a scandal from Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, his lead remains quite solid in the state. Except for an outlier showing the race even, Cunningham has led in every poll since June. The outcome of this race will be key to determining which party gains a Senate majority. Cunningham has a 67 percent chance of winning.
We now get to the most competitive states of this year’s Senate elections: the tilt states. Compared to the last prediction, Georgia (normal) and Georgia (special) have moved into this column from lean and likely Republican respectively.
Let’s first talk about both of Georgia’s Senate seats, both of which have moved leftward compared to the previous prediction. In Georgia’s normal Senate election, polling data has indicated the incumbent, David Perdue (R), and the Democratic challenger, Jon Ossoff, practically neck-and-neck. As Georgia is a state that is trending blue, races here are probably going to get more competitive here. There have been a lot more polls recently showing the race tightening up, and Perdue has a 72 percent chance of winning.
After a Republican senator resigned in 2019, Kelly Loeffler was appointed to replace him. A special election will be held this year to determine whether or not she keeps her seat. This election will be slightly special: because there is no primary, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot in November. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top-two front running candidates will advance to a runoff election in January.
In Georgia’s Senate special election, the election has drastically moved in the frontrunning Democrat, Raphael Warnock’s favor. This comes as a result of a drastic push from the Democrats to coalesce behind Warnock after Matt Lieberman and Ed Tarver, two back-running Democrats, have refused to drop out. Barack Obama, among many other top Democrats, has endorsed Warnock. This has resulted in Lieberman’s support completely collapsing since the last prediction, and now Warnock looks like he will be able to make it to the runoff in January. There are two Republicans running: besides Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins is also running (the front-running Republican is Loeffler). The polling average below demonstrates how Warnock’s support has skyrocketed in the past few weeks.
The polling data itself also shows Warnock as the entire race’s front-runner, which, if this lead holds, will allow him to advance to the January runoff.
With this new influx of polling data, the race has drastically shifted in the Democrats’ favor. Warnock is now up to a 51 percent chance of victory, massively up from just a week ago. Despite that, both of Georgia’s Senate seats are definitely on the Democrats’ radar, and it is very possible that Georgia might end up with two Democratic senators if turnout is very high.
South Carolina is an unexpected hotly competitive swing state in this election. I have a very comprehensive analysis on that race here, but in summary, incumbent Lindsey Graham is being seen as a major hypocrite on the issue of Supreme Court nominees. Add that resentment to Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison being an exceptionally strong candidate for S.C. (he has no record to attack and isn’t a progressive), Graham’s support his dwindled significantly from just a few months ago. Fundraising numbers are also significantly stronger for Harrison, and polling has shown the race almost neck-and-neck.
However, due to S.C. Democrats typically hitting a peak of around 45 percent of the vote share, Graham is still the favorite to win, at a 75 percent chance. Harrison must significantly drive up Black turnout in order to be able to win.
Finally, to wrap up this prediction, we have Iowa, the only tilt Democratic state and the state that will get the Democrats to 51 seats in the Senate. Iowa is typically a swing state on all levels, and this Senate election is no exception. Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield has been drumming up support in the state, pushing incumbent Joni Ernst (R) behind. Greenfield has also managed to portray Ernst as an evil senator who is trying to get rid of the ACA, and it seems to have worked, as the polls are showing Greenfield up. This is considered to be the closest race, with Greenfield having a 53 percent chance of winning. (The only poll in which Greenfield isn’t leading in—it shows the race even—is a GOP internal.)
The final tally is 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans. This gives the Democrats an outright majority, but if Biden wins, Democrats need only 50 seats to win a majority as the Vice President breaks 50-50 Senate ties. This will mean that Republicans are predicted to flip one Democratic seat (Alabama), while Democrats are expected to flip five Republican seats. In addition, there are 10 Senate seats in which Democrats have a greater than five percent chance of winning.
If Democrats want to have a filibuster-proof majority (60 seats), they will have to win all the seats I classified here for Democrats (including incumbents not up for election this year, 51), plus the competitive races of (in order of competitiveness) Montana, Georgia, South Carolina, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia’s special election, Texas, Alaska, and either Kentucky or Mississippi, the latter two of which are very difficult, uphill battles.
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