FiveThirtyEight has released its U.S. House prediction model on October 7. With this influx of new data, I believe it is time once again to take a look at the U.S. House elections as they stand in early October. Though not much has changed regarding the House elections since my last prediction in September (Democrats are still clearly favored to win), there are some close races to talk about.
Let’s first take a look at the data available from FiveThirtyEight’s U.S. House Deluxe forecast. The Deluxe forecast, the most accurate one, takes into account of polling data (when available), incumbency, fundraising, demographics, past voting patterns, and other pundit forecaster ratings. This forecast gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of retaining the House. In fact, 80 percent of the time, the Democrats will have anywhere between 221 and 253 seats (the Democrats currently have 232 House seats, a majority). For reference, 218 seats are needed for a working majority.
In the Lite forecast model, which ignores all factors except polling data, the Democrats have an up to 97 percent chance of retaining the House. This data proves just how difficult it will be for the GOP to take back the House, even against a GOP-favored gerrymandered U.S. House map. The reason for this was the Democrats’ strong showing in the 2018 midterms, where they flipped 41 House seats (in 30 of these districts, Trump won in 2016), way beyond any forecaster or news organization’s expectations. It is safe to say that no matter who wins the presidency, the House seems locked down for the Democratic Party. We will focus on the Deluxe model here.
As seen, in the Deluxe model, the Democrats are expected to gain at five seats, up from 232. This is likely due to court-mandated redistricting in states like North Carolina, where districts need to be redrawn due to gerrymandering, giving the Democrats a few safe seats (such as NC-02, Raleigh, and NC-06, Greensboro and Winston-Salem).
We’ll also take a quick look at the JHK House forecast. This model is even more favorable for the Democrats, with the forecast giving the Democrats a 99 percent chance of retaining the House. This, again, isn’t too surprising given the political environment we’re working with. The forecast also predicts five Democratic gains.
Let’s now take a look at some of the most competitive House seats. Note that due to the Democrats’ strong standing, they could lose a few incumbents and still maintain the House.
The most competitive district is Oklahoma’s 5th district, which encompasses the Oklahoma City area. The seat has a Democratic incumbent, Kendra Horn, who flipped it in 2018. This was considered the biggest upset of the 2018 midterm cycle when Horn won by a margin of 1.4 percent. Practically no one expected this seat to flip, with FiveThirtyEight giving a 93 percent chance of Republicans retaining control. It was very surprising considering no county in Oklahoma voted for Hillary Clinton in 2018 (this district voted for Trump by a 13-point margin). This year, Horn has a 51 percent chance of retaining her seat, as per FiveThirtyEight, while JHK gives her a 48 percent chance. The race is expected to be very close.
Indiana’s 5th district (Northern and Eastern Indianapolis suburbs) is also extremely competitive this year. It is an open race as the incumbent Republican is retiring. The district voted for a Democratic senator in 2018, who ultimately lost. It is considered a key target Democratic district. The district is very urban but is also overwhelmingly white. The Democrats have a 48 percent chance of flipping the district this year.
California’s 25th district (Palmdale and Santa Clarita) is extremely competitive for the reason that a Republican (Mike Garcia) won in a special election back in May to serve through till January. However, the turnout for that special election was very low. Since turnout is expected to be high this November (California is mailing ballots to all voters), the seat could flip back to the Democrats again. Garcia has a 46 percent chance of keeping his seat as per both forecasts.
South Carolina’s 1st district (Charleston) has a Democratic incumbent, Joe Cunningham. In 2018, Cunningham’s election marked the first time this district is represented by a Democrat since 1981. Though the race was previously considered a tossup, many pundit forecasters, including The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections have the race as either tilt or lean Democratic. FiveThirtyEight gives Cunningham a 54 percent chance, while JHK gives him a 59 percent chance. S.C. has a very competitive Senate race this year, so the outcome of this House race may also play a part in determining the state’s next senator.
Iowa has four almost perfectly-drawn districts (three of which are at least somewhat competitive). All of these competitive seats have Democratic incumbents and are either lean or likely for the Democrats, as all of them have at least a city in them. As Iowa is also a key presidential and Senate battleground state, the outcome of these seats could end up also playing a part in federal-level Iowa politics this year. The most competitive district here is Iowa’s 2nd district (Iowa City; Southeast Iowa), which is lean Democratic.
Georgia’s 7th district (Northeast Atlanta) has a Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018) of R+9, and has a Republican incumbent, but is seeing an extremely competitive race this year. This is due to major growth in Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters in this urban district. The Republican, Rob Woodall, won reelection in 2018 by only 433 votes (0.15 percent) after a recount, the closest U.S. House race in that election cycle. The seat is rated as lean Democratic by The Cook Political Report, while FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast gives the seat a 46 percent chance of going to a Democrat. JHK’s prediction is slightly better for the Democrats, coming in at 58 percent.
Texas’s 24th district (Suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth) is a competitive district this election cycle too. It is an open race and is being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area is increasingly becoming Democratic due to population growth. Though FiveThirtyEight gives this seat a safer 63 percent chance of going to a Republican, JHK only gives the race a 50 percent chance of going to a Republican. This seat is likely to be Texas’s most competitive U.S. House district of this cycle.
While we’re talking about Texas, we should also discuss the 24th district (Sugar Land and Fort Bend County; Southwest Houston). This may not be the most competitive district this year, but massive population growth in the Greater Houston area is increasingly tipping Fort Bend County into the Democrats’ favor. This is also why the DCCC is targeting this seat. The seat has a 70 percent chance of going in the Republican’s favor on FiveThirtyEight, while on JHK, the Republican has a 65 percent chance of winning.
Utah may not be a state you will think of when you hear the word “Democratic,” but the 4th district (Salt Lake City) has a Democratic incumbent. It is the most Republican district currently being represented by a Democrat, with a partisan lean of R+13. The Democrat won by a margin of 0.25 percent in 2018, and though it is still competitive, the Salt Lake area has seen some shifts in the Democrats’ favor. As a result, the Democrat maintains a 68 percent chance of keeping his seat on FiveThirtyEight, while on JHK he has a 56 percent chance.
Colorado’s 3rd district (Western Colo.; Aspen, Pueblo, Grand Junction) is probably Colorado’s most rural district, which covers the western half of the state. Based on demographics alone, it should not be too competitive, but in the ski areas and tourist counties, as well as the town of Pueblo, there is Democratic support, making the seat competitive. As Colorado has moved further and further left, this seat might get even more competitive in the future. The seat is rated as lean Republican by Cook, Crystal Ball, and I.E. FiveThirtyEight gives the seat a 55 percent chance of going to the Republican, while JHK gives the seat a 74 percent chance.
Arizona’s 6th district (Northeast Phoenix Suburbs; Scottsdale and Fountain Hills) is located in a state that is increasingly moving in the Democrats’ favor. In the 2018 midterms, the Democrats flipped a U.S. Senate seat here and for the first time in a long time, won a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegations. The state is expected to vote in another Democratic senator this year. With this seat being located in the suburbs of the fast-growing city of Phoenix, there is no doubt that seat will at least be somewhat competitive despite its Republican lean. In addition, the incumbent Republican, David Schweikert, is embroiled in a number of scandals and admitted to 11 counts of misconduct to the House Ethics Committee, over issues such as violating campaign finance rules. That could make the race more competitive. FiveThirtyEight still gives Schweikert a 70 percent chance of keeping his seat, though, while JHK gives him a 66 percent chance. Even if the seat doesn’t flip this year, there is no doubt that as Phoenix moves further and further to the left, this seat will get more competitive.
I talked about Montana’s at-large district in the previous discussion on the House elections, so I won’t talk about it again. However, to wrap up this discussion on the House races, I would like to talk about Alaska’s at-large House district. Alaska is way more competitive than anyone would think: for instance, Donald Trump is up just 4.5 percent on the state’s polling average. The Senate race here is practically tied, and recent polls have shown the House race tipping in the Democrats’ favor. The state is now rated as only lean Republican by most pundit forecasters. Longtime incumbent Don Young, who served since 1973, is consistently being out-fundraised by independent Alyse Galvin (but was on the Democratic primary). It has a 72 percent chance of going to Young on FiveThirtyEight and a 78 percent chance on JHK. This will be a key House race to look at, as it could be indicative of how Alaska votes in the presidential and Senate levels.
In conclusion, despite having a few competitive races, the Democrats are in a very solid position to keep their House majority. The Democrats should have no trouble retaining or even expanding their lead in what is expected to be a blue wave year.
Whether or not you live in one of the districts we talked about, you should still vote. Find out more about voting here. Mail-in voting has begun in most states and in-person early voting has either started or will start soon, so check your state’s election website.
Make sure to stay tuned for more analyses on statewide races as the 2020 election inches closer and closer by the day. Subscribe with your email if you haven’t already, and please share this post with your friends.