As of today (June 18, 2020), there are 138 more days to go until Election Day 2020. In today’s post, we will take a look at the presidential race as it stands today. The two forerunning candidates are the incumbent, Donald Trump, for the Republican Party, and Joe Biden for the Democratic Party.
Let’s first color in all the safe Democratic states first. All of these states are almost guaranteed to vote Biden based on past history and demographics.
These states are California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine (First Congressional district only)*, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. Next, let’s color in all the safe Republican states. Again, we can almost guarantee that these states are going to vote for Trump.
These states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Lousiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 1st and 3rd Congressional districts)*, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
*While most states use a winner-take-all system when assigning Electoral College votes, Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system. In these states, two votes go to the state’s popular vote winner, while the other votes are assigned to each of their Congressional districts. Maine has two Congressional districts while Nebraska has three. In these maps, only Maine’s first district is safe for Democrats, and only Nebraska’s 2nd district is not considered safe for Republicans in their respective states.
Although polling has shown that in states, like Utah, Montana, Indiana, South Carolina, and Missouri, Trump is only leading by a small percentage, it is highly unlikely any of these states will be flipping in favor of the Democratic Party anytime soon. Therefore, we will be listing them as “safe” for the Republican Party.
Next, we will consider all the states that are highly likely to vote for the Democratic Party. These states may have voted for Republicans in the past, but based on data, they are now likely to vote Democratic in the upcoming election.
These states are Colorado, Maine (at-large), New Mexico, and Virginia. All of these states are solidly trending blue. In addition, in all of these states, Biden is leading the polls by quite a large amount, too.
We will now do the same for all the Republican states that fall into this category.
The only two states that fit into this category are Iowa, Nebraska (2nd district), and Ohio. Although these were once considered swing states (and there is every chance that they could flip in 2020), because Trump won by such a large margin in these states in 2016, and that their federal and state-level representation are run by Republicans, these states will most likely vote Trump. Nebraska’s 2nd district has only flipped once, too, in favor of Obama in 2008, so it is quite unlikely that it will flip either.
If Biden wins these states, it is likely that he will win by a large margin as well. That leaves us with a handful of states to group as “lean” states. We will start off with the less-competitive lean states first. Likely Democrat lean states are as follows:
The states that most easily fall into this category are Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
The Rust Belt states have always been quite difficult to group, as they have been such swing states recently. However, the Black Lives Matter protest movement, coupled with the fact that Trump only won Michigan by 0.2% (and lost Minnesota), I believe that it is more likely that Michigan and Minnesota will be voting for Biden. Nevada has also been trending Democrat in recent years as well, thus pushing it firmly out of swing state territory.
New Hampshire is also quite a difficult one to group. However, because Trump lost the state in 2016, along with the fact that they have voted Democrat in numerous past elections as well, I am grouping it as leans Democrat. We will group all the lean Republican states:
In this category are Georgia, Maine (second district only), and Texas. Although there is every chance that these states could flip this year, I believe that it is less likely to happen due to numerous reasons.
Although both Georgia and Texas are trending blue due to increased population growth, I think that they are not quite ready to flip yet this year. Although there is every chance that they could flip this year, it seems likely that they won’t flip this year, as there just aren’t enough Democratic voters in either of these states to make that happen yet.
Trump won Maine’s second district by a very healthy margin in 2016 (over 10%), so I also don’t think that the district will flip this year, either. That leaves us with the most battleground states of the 2020 election, and it is very hard to group these. These states will likely be determining the outcome of the election.
Because of North Carolina’s voting history, only voting Democratic once in 2008, it seems likely that it will continue to remain Republican for the time being. Although the race in that state has been narrowing up, it will probably take a bit more time before North Carolina will flip again. Also, due to population growth, the state will likely gain another seat after the 2020 Census.
Because of Arizona’s leftward trend and the growth in population there, there is every chance that Biden will win the state, and pundits are expecting a Biden win, too. As such, I am grouping it blue for now.
Florida is a particularly interesting case. It should really be a blue state (due to a large Latino and minority population), but because so many retired people move there, it has turned Florida into a swing state. However, because the state has voted for George W. Bush and various other Republican candidates in the past, it has a greater chance of being Republican than Democrat.
That leaves us with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Because Trump won these states by such narrow margins in 2016, and these states’ past history of voting Democrat, it seems more likely than not that these states will flip this year. In addition, due to the growing resentment of Trump across the country fueled by the Black Lives Matter protest movement, the chances of the states flipping are quite large.
With that, every state (and D.C.) has been grouped as either Democrat or Republican. The current standings do give Joe Biden a majority of the Electoral College votes. Due to the general consensus for this election, it does seem more likely than not that Biden will win over Trump. However, as we are still almost five months away from the election, there is every chance that the map could change before it. The states to watch out for are the Rust Belt states, Arizona, and Florida. These states alone are likely to determine the outcome of this year’s election.
We will be publishing more 2020 Election analysis nearer to the election. Details on the 2020 Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races will also come in due time. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss it.