It has been over two weeks since my last post looking at the 2020 Presidential Race. Yet, since then, the political climate in the United States has changed significantly, especially with the recent uptick in coronavirus cases. Let’s take a look at how things stand for both parties in today’s post.
For a start, let’s take a look at some polling data in various swing states from FiveThirtyEight. Things are definitely not looking good for Donald Trump.
In terms of nationwide polling data from pollsters like RMG Research (B/C rated), Data for Progress (B- rated), Monmouth University (A+ rated), and more, Biden is showing a lead of at least five points, with some polls giving Biden up to a 12-point lead.
The Economist is giving Biden a whopping 93% chance of winning the November election, with a fairly high chance of going up to 400 Electoral College votes.
In Florida, a hotly contested swing state, YouGov (B rated) put Biden ahead by six points. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s data, Biden is leading over Trump by a 5.9-6 point margin. Florida is considered a “must-win” state for the Republican party. Should the GOP lose Florida, Trump will virtually be unable to win.
In Texas, a traditionally conservative stronghold but a state that is trending leftward, polls released by the University of Texas at Tyler (B/C rated) is giving Biden a whopping five-point lead. Should this margin hold true in the final election, it would mean that Biden would win with a larger margin than the margins for Colo., Mich., Wis., Pa., N.C., Fla., and more in the 2016 election.
Even true conservative states are showing a narrow-down in margins. The latest poll in Alaska, by Public Policy Polling (B rated), is only giving Trump a three-point lead over Biden in the state. And in Missouri, YouGov is only giving Trump a seven-point lead, while in Montana, Public Policy Polling gives Trump a nine-point lead. This spells out bad news for President Trump as these ratings push these states out of the “safe” category. In fact, Alaska’s rating basically moves it into swing-state territory. Although the chances of either of these states flipping are slim, the fact that the margins are so narrow is of major note.
In Nebraska’s second District, a poll by GQR Research (B rated) is giving Biden a seven-point lead over Trump. Should this district flip, it will mark only the second time a Democrat has managed to flip it since Nebraska started using a proportional system for assigning electoral votes (the only other time was Obama in 2008). Although this district only counts for one vote, leading by seven points puts it well out of the margin of error for polls. Again, this is very significant.
North Carolina is also showing a three-point lead for Biden. And the classic swing states of Iowa and Ohio have all narrowed down their margins. In Iowa, Trump is only leading by a 0.6 point margin, which is definitely in the error margin. In fact, in Ohio, FiveThirtyEight is showing a two-point lead for Biden! Even though I don’t believe that Iowa and Ohio will vote blue this year, the fact that the margins are such in favor of Biden is major.
And states that went blue in 2016 have now solidified their margins. In Colorado, Biden is leading by 17 points, which makes Colorado a “safe” state for this election. In New Hampshire, Biden leads by eight points. And in Nevada, a place where polls often overestimate Republicans’ performance, Biden also leads by 8.3 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data compilation.
On PredictIt, a website where people can use real money to bet on the winning candidate, it even classifies Utah, Kansas, Indiana, and South Carolina as not safe, but likely Republican states.
Here is now the electoral map as it stands. (I try to classify every state and avoid using the tossup color.) The “tilt” color is also used here.
Based on the data above, I have made some changes. Some notable changes are as follows.
The entire rust belt (Mich., Minn., Pa., and Wis.) are now all Lean D states. Due to Trump’s recent performance and the fact that 2016 was likely a fluke, it seems like the so-called “Blue Wall” will be rebuilt for this year’s election.
Florida and Arizona move into the Lean D column. Because of the coronavirus pandemic exacerbating in those states under Republican leadership, it seems quite likely that voters will vote for the Democratic Party.
Georgia, Iowa, Maine’s second District, Ohio, and Texas are now only Tilt Republican states. Due to Trump’s continuing decline in approval rating, there is a still-small, but significant, chance that these states could flip. It is also important to note that in 2016, Trump’s margin in Texas was actually smaller than in Iowa. This could mark the end of Iowa being a bellwether state. Also, Maine’s second district, despite voting for Trump by a large margin in 2016, is no longer as safe as I previously considered it, due to the nature of the voters and the general trend in approval ratings for Trump.
North Carolina is now no longer a Tilt Republican state, but a Tilt Democratic state. Data shows that Biden is consistently ahead in the state. However, I do give N.C. a larger chance of being Republican than Ga., Iowa, Ohio, or Texas being Democratic states, simply due to the nature of the voters in the states.
Nebraska’s second district now also has enough data to classify it into the Lean Democratic column. It seems that Biden is leading by quite a significant margin in this district.
And finally, Alaska, Missouri, and Montana are Likely Republican states rather than Safe Republican states. Although I believe there is virtually no chance of any of these states flipping, various sources of data do list it as such, and as the margins will almost certainly narrow down in these states, I have listed them as Likely Republican states.
Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia remain as Safe Democratic states, while Maine (at-large), New Hampshire, and Nevada remain as Likely Democratic states.
To nobody’s surprise, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington are Safe Democratic. Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska (at large and first and third districts), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming are Safe Republican.
I will try to do a presidential race update every two to three weeks until late October when the updates will come way more frequently in the weeks leading up to the election. Make sure to follow the blog so you don’t miss these posts.
All pollster ratings are from FiveThirtyEight, and pollster data is compiled from FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics.
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