Today marks 100 days until the general elections on November 3. Since last time, there have been some changes to all three races nationwide. There have also been a large number of new polls that were released recently, so let’s take a closer look today.
With regard to the presidential race, many states have narrowed down considerably. For example, in the state of Florida, one of the most “swingy” states in a presidential election (the winning margins combined for the last couple of elections weren’t even 10%), is showing Joe Biden having a seven-point lead over Donald Trump. That is an unprecedented lead and is honestly quite shocking.
Quinnipiac University (B+ rated pollster) is even giving Joe Biden a 13-point lead over Donald Trump. Even in Ohio, a swing state that went to Donald Trump by over eight points in 2016, is showing Joe Biden having slight leads over Donald Trump according to FiveThirtyEight.
In Texas, both candidates are even in their numbers. Should Texas flip blue this year, it would mark the first time since 1976 that a Democratic candidate managed to win Texas.
In Wisconsin, Biden is up 7.1%, in Michigan, 7.6%, and Pennsylvania, 6.7%. This means that Joe Biden has essentially locked down the Rust Belt region. All Rust Belt states look likely to vote Democrat.
That brings us to our new Electoral College map.
Even though Texas is showing no lead for Donald Trump, I still think he has a slight advantage over Biden here simply because I think it is a bit too early for Texas to become a swing state. It will be super competitive, for sure, but I believe that Trump will win the state, even if by a narrow margin. Thus, it goes into the Tilt Republican category.
The same story goes for Georgia, too. I still believe that it is premature for the state to flip. Besides, FiveThirtyEight is giving Trump a 1.3-point lead in the state, so the state is likely to go to Trump by a narrow margin.
Even though I believe that there is virtually no chance of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipping, it still goes into the Lean Democratic category because I think the margins there will still be quite competitive. Due to Arizona being one of the fastest-growing states in the Union, and thus becoming more liberal, I think that there is every possibility of the state flipping blue this year.
Florida, as mentioned above, also deserves to fit into the Lean Democratic category simply because of the huge leads Joe Biden is experiencing in the state.
Alaska, Montana, Utah, Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina all now move into the Likely Republican category because even though I don’t think these states will flip, the margins will definitely narrow up significantly compared to 2016.
Nevada is also quite likely to remain blue, as polls tend to overestimate Republicans in the state. Besides, Hillary Clinton won the state back in 2016, so it remains in the Likely Democratic category. The same goes for New Hampshire.
North Carolina is also quite interesting, as the above states. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the aforementioned circumstances, I am confident in putting it in the Lean Democratic category.
I put Maine’s second District as Tilt Republican, simply due to the fact that it voted for Trump by such a large margin in 2016. Due to this, I think that the chance of the district flipping is fairly low, although this could change as election day nears.
Nebraska’s second District belongs in the Lean Democratic column because polls are showing Joe Biden have a 7+ point lead in the district. This will only be the second time that the district goes blue since Nebraska started divvying up electoral votes in this method.
Iowa is still showing leads for Donald Trump, and the state looks less and less likely to flip, although the margins are close. Thus, it is a Tilt Republican state.
The last state to talk about is Ohio. For now, I put it as a Tilt Democratic state, but this may change as more polling data comes out. Biden has just a narrow edge (1.3%) over Trump at this stage. This state will definitely be a close race and it will be quite tough to call.
That’s it for today’s post. I am working on upgrading the website to WordPress at this point in time so there is the possibility of me missing one or two posts in the next few days. Make sure to follow the blog, and stay safe from the coronavirus.