In this post, we are going to take a look at the most competitive House of Representatives races and how they stand about 55 days out from the November general election. We will only discuss the most competitive house races, because otherwise, we would be here until tomorrow morning if we were to discuss all 435 House seats.
I have been putting off doing making this post for the longest of times, since it felt very daunting to me, but I finally got round to doing it, and so, here it is.
As of right now, Democrats control the House, with 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, one Libertarian, and four vacant seats. This was due to a major victory in the 2018 midterms, where Democrats managed to flip 40 seats. Because of such major performance by the Democrats against such an unfavorably gerrymandered House map, it is highly unlikely for the Republicans to win back the House. (The JHK Forecast rates Democrats as having a 98.2 percent chance of retaining the House.)
In addition, the Democrats have good incumbents, whereas the Republicans have failed to produce good, competitive candidates to run against the Democrats.
It is quite difficult to draw a consensus for many races, though, as there are far fewer polls available due to the large number of districts. Most of what we are working with here is based on historical elections.
Many Republicans are retiring this year, though, especially in some of the more competitive seats. For example, Montana’s at-large district is seeing an incumbent Republican retire. In Texas’ 23rd district, a key race, the incumbent Republican is retiring, opening the door for Democrats to grab the seat.
The Cook Political Report has rated races as follows (safe races are ignored):
UT-04 (Salt Lake City) will be a very close race. The Democratic incumbent, Ben McAdams, is up for a close race against Republican challenger Burgess Owens. The JHK forecast is showing a narrow edge for the Democrats.
A number of races in Texas are also super competitive. TX-21 (North San Antonio, South Austin), TX-22 (Fort Bend County, Houston suburbs), TX-23 (southwest Texas), and TX-24 (suburban Dallas and Fort Worth) districts are all super competitive. Aside from the 23rd district showing leads for Democrats, the remaining races are all tossups. They are open, but all had Republican incumbents.
Iowa’s House seats are also very competitive. Because Iowa’s districts are drawn so well (and not gerrymandered), they are always fairly competitive, except for the IA-04 (Sioux City, Fort Dodge, Mason City), which is safe Republican. Polls are showing Democrats are the slight favorites to win IA-01 (Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Dubuque), IA-02 (Davenport, Iowa City), and IA-03 (Des Moines), but it could go either way. They all have Democratic incumbents, and IA-02’s incumbent is retiring.S
Montana and Alaska’s at-large districts are both lean Republican, but competitive. Though Republicans are up in the districts, it is not inconceivable for the seats to flip. Longtime incumbent of AK-AL, Don Young is facing a challenge from an independent who is endorsed by the Democratic Party.
CA-25 (Palmdale, Santa Clarita) is also one to keep a close look at. Republican Mike Garcia won a special election back in May, but because only 173,000 people voted compared to 245,000 in the 2018 midterms, the seat is not safe for Garcia in any way. Polls are showing slight edges for Garcia, but again, it could flip either way.
NM-02 (Las Cruces, Roswell, Southwest Albuquerque) is more conservative than the rest of the state. There have been few polls coming out of the district, but JHK gives the Democrats a very slight edge. Xochitl Torres Small, the incumbent Democrat, will be playing defense to keep her seat. A new poll by a B+ rated pollster, Research and Polling Inc., is showing a +2 lead for Torres Small.
All in all, this year’s House elections won’t be too competitive, given that the Democrats already control the House and this year is expected to be a Democratic wave year. The Democrats should have no trouble retaining the House. Republicans need to gain at least 20 seats in order to control the House.
More election predictions and analyses are coming later this month. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss any.
Check out my early September Presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial predictions too.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.
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