Which Party is Winning the Race For the Senate? (Sept. 2020)

Since we last discussed the race for the U.S. Senate in August, a lot has changed on the national landscape. The DNC and RNC have both taken place, and as we head into the presidential debates, the race for the Senate is undoubtedly going to narrow up. Let’s take a look at where things stand for each party exactly two months out from the November general election.

Let’s first fill in all the safe states on the political map. (By the way, I’ll be using YAPMS.com for my electoral maps from hereon forward.)

Since I’ve previously explained why I classify Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia as safe, I won’t be repeating that again. However, I do want to mention that a competitive Democratic primary did take place in Massachusetts yesterday: the progressive incumbent Edward Markey did win against a primary centrist challenger (Joseph Kennedy III), marking the first time in over 26 elections a Kennedy has been defeated. The polls got this primary almost exactly right: the RealClear Politics (RCP) average was Markey +11.2, while the actual result was Markey +11.6, almost exactly spot on.

Polls are all showing major leads for their respective party’s candidates in the states I colored in above, based on FiveThirtyEight and RCP.

Again, I must reiterate that in the 16 competitive seats I haven’t classified yet, only Michigan and Alabama have Democratic incumbents, which means that Republicans are really playing defense this election. Let’s now classify the likely seats.

Let’s first talk about Arizona. Two polls from Fox News, rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, are showing a 17-point lead for Mark Kelly over Martha McSally. Yes, you read that correctly—that really does say 17 points. As I have mentioned, Arizona is a state that is trending blue, and this election seems to be accelerating it. Martha McSally had previously lost an election, and the fact that she is trying to run again is probably really hurting Republicans in Arizona. In fact, Mark Kelly may just be the person who flips Arizona blue on both the Senate and presidential levels this year. Arizona is basically a lost cause for the GOP at this point.

The same can be said for Colorado. A state that has staunchly moved out of swing state territory in recent years, it looks set on track to be electing Democrat John Hickenlooper for the Senate. Cory Gardner, the incumbent Republican, seems like a lost cause for the GOP too.

Since Michigan has a Democratic incumbent, there should really be no argument about whether Gary Peters can keep his seat. There is almost no way that Republican challenger John James will be able to win in what is predicted to be a Democratic wave year.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, though, the race in Texas seems to have shifted in the Republicans’ favor. It was probably a bad idea for the Democrats to pick MJ Jegar for the Senate, a relatively unknown candidate compared to incumbent John Cornyn. The race looks like it will go to the Republicans.

South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Alaska are all long shots for Democrats: there is virtually no chance that these seats are flipping, although the margins are sure to be under 15%, so they go into the likely column. Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and Dan Sullivan are likely to keep their seats.

There is also virtually no way that Democrat Doug Jones will be able to keep his Alabama Senate seat. Having been elected by an extremely narrow margin in a special election against an alleged child molester, Alabama is such a safely Republican state that there should be almost no question about whether or not this seat will flip back. Despite this, though, the Democrats haven’t quite given up yet: they are still spending ad money on Jones in this state. However, with President Trump’s endorsement of Jones’ candidate, Tommy Tuberville, and with him leading by large margins in polls, this seat will likely be Republicans’ only Senate gain.

That leaves us with just six hotly contested lean and tilt seats. If Joe Biden wins the presidency, which is looking likely, the Democrats will only need to pick up two more seats to win a majority, since, in the event of a 50-50 Senate tie, the Vice President breaks them. If Donald Trump wins, the Democrats will need to pick up three seats. Republicans only have 46 seats at this point.

Only three states fit into the lean column.

With the classification of lean seats, the Democrats now have 50 seats, a majority if Kamala Harris is Vice President. North Carolina should really be classified as a likely state at this point. Fox News polls, among others, are giving Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham a 6-7 point lead over incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. This may also translate into Joe Biden winning over North Carolina, since people in most states do not split their votes for various parties.

In Maine, longtime incumbent Republican Susan Collins remains as the most unpopular senator on the floor. Sara Gideon, Collins’ Democratic challenger, is a well-known name in the state who currently serves as the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Because Collins is seen to have “lost” the bipartisanship with a number of her recent votes being in favor of Trump, she is now quite unpopular with Maine voters. As a result, Gideon is on track to winning the seat.

I previously classified Kansas’ open Senate seat as likely Republican after more-extreme Republican Kris Kobach lost his primary, but it seems to have moved slightly left. Roger Marshall, the GOP’s primary winner, although less extreme than Kris Kobach, is still not showing major leads over Barbara Bollier, the Democratic candidate. In a recent poll by Survey USA, rated A by FiveThirtyEight, is only showing Marshall leading by two percent. That is well within the margin of error for polls. As a result, this seat does seem to be a completely viable choice for Democrats to win.

That now leaves us with the most hotly-contested Senate seats: Georgia, Iowa, and Montana. They are all tilt states and could really swing either way between now and November.

Iowa has moved from tilt Republican to tilt Democratic. The reason for this is because polls are showing a relatively good performance from Democrat Theresa Greenfield over Republican Joni Ernst. There is a chance the Senate seat could, therefore, flip blue, but it will be very hotly contested. In addition, at least on the presidential level, Iowa does have a history of big swings, so it flipping this year after voting for Donald Trump by a 10-point margin is not out of the question.

In Montana, polls have seemed to have moved ever so slightly in Republican Steve Daines’ favor, but because the Democratic candidate is also Montana’s current (and very popular) governor Steve Bullock, along with the fact that Montana has a history of voting Democratic down-ballot, it could absolutely go in the Democrats’ favor. Montana is quite a strange state because conservative as they are on the presidential level, they seem to vote for Democratic candidates for down-ballot offices.

And finally, we get to Georgia. Also highly competitive on the presidential level, it has moved to slightly leftward compared to the previous projection. Though I still think the state will vote for Republican David Perdue, I do see the race narrowing up significantly in Democrat Jon Ossoff’s favor.

In addition, we just aren’t seeing a convention bump like most years. There is only a one to two point convention “bump” for either party in the polls, so adjusting for that, the virtual conventions this year have really not significantly benefited either candidate. This will be important to keep note of as we move into debate season.

My September projection for the presidential race will also be out soon, so stay tuned for that. Make sure to subscribe to the blog so you don’t miss it, and leave a comment below with your thoughts.

Check out my Presidential, House, and gubernatorial election predictions for early September too.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}