What Went Wrong For the Democrats This Election?

This year was widely expected to be a Blue Wave year, with Democrats winning big in the Electoral College, expanding their lead in the Senate, and widening their majority in the House, as well as flipping a number of state legislatures, etc. However, election night proved that none of these things happened. What went so wrong for the Democrats, and what can be done about it going forward?

Prior to Election Day, it had been widely thought that a 413-vote Electoral College landslide victory was possible and that the Democrats would flip a number of Senate seats, including in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Colorado. The first three didn’t materialize, and with the Democrats losing an incumbent in Alabama, so far, the Democrats have only flipped a net total of one seat, putting them two short of the majority (since Kamala Harris is the Vice President-Elect, only 50 seats are required for the Democrats to have a Senate majority). Disappointingly, many other Senate races, including Montana, Kansas, Texas, and South Carolina were all expected to be competitive. Yet, none of these seats even came close to flipping, despite polling indicating a narrow race and Democratic challengers raising tens of millions of dollars.

In addition, not only did the Democrats not expand their lead in the House of Representatives, so far, they have lost a net total of five seats, and still, a handful of competitive House seats with Democratic incumbents are too close to call. They lost most of the tossup races and failed to flip many seats though to be competitive. Though the Democrats will retain a House majority, many are pointing to the fact that 2022 may spell disaster for the party.

It is clear that much has gone wrong, especially down-ballot, for the Democrats. But what could have caused such a catastrophic (in relative terms) disaster for the Democratic Party?

Firstly, let’s get what wasn’t a problem out of the way. There definitely was not a turnout problem. A record-breaking number of Americans voted in this election, and a handful of states surpassed 2016’s vote share prior to Election Day. It is safe to say that it wasn’t a lack of turnout that cost the Democrats lots of down-ballot races.

One of the largest issues this election for the Democrats was that, surprisingly, minority turnout was extremely high. Traditionally, Democrats benefitted from high minority turnout, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year (especially with Hispanics and Latinos, with which Biden won by just 52 to 47 percent, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 62 percent support four years ago). In fact, white voters actually shifted toward the Democrats more. For example, Florida’s heavily Democratic Miami-Dade County, in which Clinton won by more than 30 percent four years ago, only voted for Biden by 7.3 percent—a major, major loss for the Democratic Party.

The conservative shift in Latinos can be explained by one reason: the GOP was very successful in convincing (especially Cuban Hispanics) that the Democratic Party was socialist, while the Democrats were slow to defend itself from these false attacks. The GOP successfully used a large disinformation campaign to paint false claims onto the party. Democrats now need to use the next few years to build back support in largely Hispanic communities, to make clear that what the GOP said of them was false and misleading. In addition, it is clear that the Latino vote has become way more complex this year, an issue that will require further discussion and analysis in a future post.

In addition, based on the polls, the economy was still the top issue on voters’ minds this election, with the COVID-19 pandemic being a distant third. Arguably, the Democrats focused too much on the pandemic, with their economic message being too weak. This is sure to have helped Donald Trump, as 81 percent of people who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for him.

The Democrats pushing their COVID-19 message could also have hurt them indirectly, too. While the Democrats called off large, in-person rallies and door-to-door canvassing for fear of COVID-19, the Republicans didn’t. This extra time and publicity may also have helped Trump.

On one hand, while being seen as too liberal may have hurt the Democratic Party, being too conservative may also have hurt them, too. For instance, the majority of Americans don’t support the Affordable Care Act. Rather, over 71 percent of people interviewed in a Fox News analysis survey supported a government-run health care plan, and would buy into it. Though Biden’s health care plan includes a similar proposal, arguably, the Democrats spent too much time defending the ACA than pushing their new health care proposal. It is possible that a dramatic leftward shift in health care policy may help the party, but it seems like too many centrist Democrats are opposed to that.

That brings us into the another issue the Democrats faced: the Democrats are continuing to see a larger and larger centrist/progressive divide within the party. On one hand, you have people like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and more pushing for neoliberal, progressive ideologies such as Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, major criminal justice reform, free college, increases in welfare and minimum wage, etc. But on the other hand, you have centrists, like President-Elect Joe Biden, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and the majority of Democratic leadership who are opposed to many progressive ideologies—for fear of losing the elusive “moderate” vote.

However, it is the former group, the progressive group, that is the main driving force of the Democratic Party. It is young, progressive voters, pushed by members of the Progressive Caucus like Reps. Omar and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) that helped hand Joe Biden the victory in the Rust Belt. Other progressives in safe Democratic states, like Reps. Ocasio-Cortez, Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) also probably have helped drive out progressive turnout. The Democratic Party’s largest voting demographic—young voters—generally favor the progressive policies rather than centrist policies. By not adopting a left-wing platform, it is possible many progressives are put off voting. Arguably, if it wasn’t for the this group of people pushing young people and progressives out to vote, we may be seeing Donald Trump being the President-Elect rather than Joe Biden.

The party in-fighting has caused both sides to blame each other for costing party seats in the House (and failing to win the Senate). The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), a centrist group, has been trying to elect centrists even in safe blue districts (a number of progressives ran successful bids unseating centrists in safe blue districts this year). The DCCC, along with Pelosi and a number of centrists, argues that it was because of far-left policies that resulted in the Democrats losing a number of seats this election because the GOP painted the party as “socialist.” The progressives argued that party leadership was only trying to appease white suburban voters (who are unlikely to flip) and was encouraging in-fighting and singling out ideas that energize the party base (which progressives and centrists view differently). Democratic Party in-fighting is also another issue that we need to come back to at another time, but it is clear that a united message is needed. We will also need to come back to discussing whether or not the Democrats should move farther to the left or remain centrist in a future post. This New York Times interview with Rep. Ocasio-Cortez is also pretty interesting: she said that, despite her offering help to all swing district Democrats, only five would let her help, and all of them won reelection. Those that didn’t ask Ocasio-Cortez for help are struggling with reelection.

Another issue that I want will talk about here is the fact that a great deal of grassroots money was wasted in what were essentially unwinnable races for the Democrats. Over a quarter billion (yes, you read that right) dollars in total were raised in Senate races in Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama, and Kansas, and their candidates all lost by 10 points or more. To put that into better perspective, Amy McGrath, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)’s challenger, spent over $43 million trying to unseat McConnell, but ended up winning just three counties, lost by 21 percent, and performed worse than in McConnell’s previous race in 2014. That $43 million could have gone to way better use in winnable states like Georgia (which is headed into a runoff), North Carolina (which looks highly likely for the GOP at this point), and Maine. The same could be said for all the other candidates. Democrats should not have spent so much money trying to unseat GOP incumbents in safe Republican states.

The last issue (and which also ties back to the centrists “strategy” of trying to win moderates) was the fact that the party barely put up a fight against the confirmation of the far-right judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Over 60 percent of people believe that the court was a significant factor in their vote, and most supported Biden. Had there been a huge pushback in the Senate over her confirmation, the Democrats would have almost certainly performed better.

In conclusion, it seems like the two main issues plaguing the Democrats this year are the failure to appeal to Latinos and party in-fighting over whom to appeal to. The Democrats could have certainly performed significantly better, and it is quite disappointing to see such a lackluster performance from the party.