Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia Cement Themselves as Blue States

Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia were once hotly contested swing states. All had voted Republican in 2004 for George W. Bush, but ever since then, these three states have begun a steady (and rapid) transition into cementing themselves as Democratic strongholds. The 2020 presidential election solidified this standing.

All three states were expected to go to President-Elect Joe Biden by a likely margin, and all three went to him as expected. However, quite surprisingly, all of them voted for Biden by double digits. The last time that any of these states voted for a Democrat by a double-digit margin was 1964 in Colorado and New Mexico and 1944 in Virginia.

Colorado voted for Biden by a whopping 13.5 percent margin, New Mexico by a 10.8 percent margin, and Virginia by a 10.1 percent margin. It is also the first year that Colorado voted more Democratic than New Mexico to its south.

Let’s first talk about Colorado. The state has been a swing state for a very long time: in 1992, it voted for Democrat Bill Clinton by five points, in 1996, it voted for losing Republican Bob Dole by 1.4 points, in 2000, it voted for Republican George W. Bush by wight points and by three points in 2004, in 2008, it voted for Democrat Barack Obama by nine points and five points in 2012, and in 2016, it voted for losing Democrat Hillary Clinton by five points as well. By voting for Joe Biden by 13.5 percent, it means that the state has swung almost eight points to the left, a very, very rapid leftward shift.

Not only did Colorado vote for Joe Biden, but it also ousted its incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardner, choosing to back Democrat John Hickenlooper by nine points.

Virtually all of Colorado’s most populous counties, especially the ones surrounding the Denver metropolitan area, shifted to the left.

In 40 of the state’s 60 counties, the Democratic vote share increased. Even in the conservative hub of El Paso County (Colorado Springs), Donald Trump’s vote-share decreased from 22 percent in 2016 to 11 percent in 2020.

The data suggests that Colorado is firmly out of the swing state column, and we can expect the Republicans to no longer make any large plays here. Colorado is no longer a purple state; it’s a blue state.

Let’s now talk about New Mexico. New Mexico backed Biden by a margin of 10.8 percent, which is considerably more than in previous years. The state used to be extremely competitive: in 2000, the state backed losing Democrat Al Gore by 366 votes and in 2004, backed George W. Bush by just 5,900 votes. We would have to go all the way back to Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964 to find a Democratic candidate that overperformed Biden’s win here (Johnson won the state by 19 percent).

As the Democrats drove out the Hispanic and Native American vote in this state, the state has moved greatly to the left. Biden won all the largest counties, including the counties home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, all of which backed him by more than 10 points. Native Americans, frustrated with the lack of resources provided to reservations by the federal government, broke for Biden 75 to 23 percent. However, Valencia County, a perfect bellwether county since 1948, ended its streak by backing Trump by nine points.

It is safe to say that, despite Democrats losing a rural U.S. House seat in the state (which they may gain back after redrawing the districts next year), the state of New Mexico is on its way out of being in the swing state column.

Never once in political history did we see such a rapid shift in voting than we did in Virginia. Once a solidly Republican state, voting for a Democratic presidential candidate just once (1964) since 1952, it has now shifted into being a Democratic stronghold. We would have to look all the way back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s (yes, FDR!) victory back in 1944 to see a Democratic candidate who performed as well as Joe Biden did this year.

In just a few short years, Virginia went from voting for Republicans by overwhelming margins to flipping both U.S. Senate seats, most U.S. House seats, both chambers in the state’s legislature, and also the governorship. No Republican has won a statewide office here since 2009.

The state continued its leftward shift in 2020, backing Joe Biden by 10.11 points. He won traditionally Republican counties like Virginia Beach City, Lynchburg City, Chesterfield County, James City County, and Stafford County, counties which had not voted Democratic for decades. Fairfax County, the state’s largest and most Democratic, backed Biden by a whopping 42 percentage points over Donald Trump.

Due to the population growth and diversification in Northern Virginia, part of the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, and declining GOP support in the suburbs, Joe Biden was able to easily win here without even campaigning in this once-crucial swing state.

There is little doubt that Virginia will soon by joining the rest of the Northeast as safe Democratic territory, and this year has cemented the state’s move out of the swing state column.

Check out the 2020 election coverage page for more.