Although the outcome of the 2020 presidential and House races have been determined for the Democrats, control of the Senate still remains up in the air. With the Democrats and Republicans alike hardly flipping any seats in the Senate this election cycle, the Georgia Senate runoffs will now singlehandedly decide the balance of power in the 117th Congress.
Georgia runs its elections in a different way than most other states. It requires candidates in many statewide races (but the Senate race in particular) to gain a majority of the votes, rather than a plurality, in order to win their races. Because most races have more than one candidate (oftentimes Libertarians, Greens, and other independents run), quite often, candidates in many races across America fail to represent the majority of the people who elected them.
To rectify this problem, Georgia (among a handful of other states) set up a system which requires candidates to win a majority (more than 50 percent of the vote-share) in order to win. This is done by first putting all candidates who are running on a ballot (sometimes, there may be primaries, which means each party only runs one candidate, but once again, don’t forget third parties), then, if one candidate fails to gain a majority of the votes, the race proceeds into a runoff, where the top two vote-getters will face off on a separate ballot.
This election cycle, Georgia’s Class II Senate seat, held by Republican David Perdue, was up for reelection for a six-year term. Because a Class III Senate seat previously held by Republican Johnny Isakson became vacant (he resigned due to health concerns), a special election for his seat was held this November too, which will be up for election again in 2022. Having been appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.), Kelly Loeffler is now trying to be elected for the first time. The special election was held in a “jungle primary” style. This meant that, unlike the regular Senate election, no special election was held for this seat, and all candidates (regardless of party) appeared on the same ballot in November, with the race expected to proceed into a January runoff.
Surprisingly, Perdue failed to gain the needed majority threshold in order to avoid proceeding into a runoff election, gaining just 49.7 percent of the vote in November. This meant that the race will proceed into a runoff election. Perdue will face off against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. The special election was expected to go into a runoff, and the top two vote-getters in the November “jungle primary,” Democrat Raphael Warnock and incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler, who won 33 percent and 26 percent of the vote respectively in November, will face off in a runoff election. The runoff elections for both races will be held simultaneously on January 5.
That leaves us with just over a week to go until the runoffs take place. The Democrats currently hold 48 seats in the Senate, and the Republicans 50. In order to win the majority, Democrats must win both runoffs (a 50-50 Senate tie is broken by the Vice President). For the Republicans to retain their majority, they must win at least one.
Since the race proceeded into a runoff, it is clear that this will be a very, very close election. Although Georgia had once been a Republican stronghold, it had been getting closer in recent years, and in 2020, for the first time in over two decades, went blue on the presidential level by voting in President-Elect Joe Biden by an extremely narrow 0.25 percent (just a 12,000 vote margin out of about five million cast). In addition, with the race being this close, this race is not about flipping voters. It is all about turnout. Whichever party can make more voters turnout will win.
Although runoff elections generally see decreased turnout, in turn benefiting the GOP, this is a very, very different election. With these races being nationalized and on many people’s radar across the country, all eyes are on Georgia. The fact that the stakes are so high this election means that Georgia is seeing record turnout in these runoffs. As of writing, according to data from the U.S. Elections Project, over two million people, or about 30 percent of the electorate, have voted already. That is a stunning turnout considering we are still days away from the actual election. Many people are choosing to early vote and vote-by-mail.
In fact, early voting figures have been benefiting the Democratic Party. Compared to data for the general election, Black voters have been voting at a higher rate than white voters. With a recent shift away from the GOP by many suburban Republicans, especially women, early voting isn’t showing any sign of slowing down and it’s only benefiting the Democrats. Should this voting rate hold, the Black vote could increase by four percent, hugely significant in a state this close.
The high stakes of this election is causing record turnout in the runoffs. Even though we are still days away from the election, already, the runoff has hit record turnout.
Though polling is likely to be inaccurate given the realities polls showed us in the general election, we can still look to some polls and forecast models to give us an idea of how this race could go. FiveThirtyEight’s poll compiler is showing an extremely narrow race, with the polling average for both races within the margin of error. Perdue leads ever so slightly in the general election, while Warnock leads ever so slightly in the special election.
That gives us an idea of just how close this race is expected to be. Now, polls in Georgia weren’t actually too far off here—they predicted an approximately one point win for Biden—and SurveyUSA (an A-rated pollster) got the race almost bang on. In its pre-election poll on October 13, it estimated Joe Biden would win by two percent, Warnock by four, and Perdue by three. Except for the special election, which underestimated Warnock, the Democrat, due to the poll not accounting for other third-party and minor candidates in the race, the data was almost exactly right. Their latest poll of the runoff—conducted between December 16 and 20—is showing surprising results. The polls shows Warnock leading by five points and Ossoff by four, after FiveThirtyEight adjusted the numbers.
On FiveThirtyEight’s pre-2020 election forecast, the numbers show a tight race, too. The model didn’t predict that Perdue’s race would head into a runoff, and gave him a 57 in 100 chance of winning the election. Loeffler performs significantly worse than him, with her only having a 37 in 100 chance of winning the election. This model notably predicted that Joe Biden would win the presidential election here, winning by about one percent. The data is clearly indicating a close election.
In conclusion, the Georgia Senate runoffs on January 5 are shaping up to be extremely important, high-stakes race that could determine the political makeup of America for the next Congress and has huge implications on Biden’s presidency. As the race draws closer and closer, all eyes will be turned to Georgia as this one state decides for the nation which party will ultimately control the United States Senate.
For more on the 2020 election, check out our 2020 election coverage.
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