First Look at the 2022 Midterm Senate Elections

Although the 2022 Midterms are still two years away, it is never too early to start thinking about them. In today’s post, we are going to take a look at where things stand in the 2022 Senate elections. Like in every American election, there will be some key battleground races to focus on, which will once again determine which party will gain (or retain) control of the Senate.

Note that one extra race is shown for Georgia because the map has not been updated after the Georgia runoffs, of which both Democrats won. Therefore, one of these races will be classified as safe because that seat will not be up for reelection. Only Raphael Warnock’s seat will be up for reelection, since it is a special election.

Currently, it is known that there will be at least two retirements, and they are both Republican incumbents in battleground states. Republican Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Richard Burr of North Carolina are retiring. Whether or not other senators from other states will retire is still unknown.

For the purposes of this post, I am going to assume that, except for the aforementioned Toomey and Burr, all other senators are going to run for reelection (and will not be primaried by candidates from their party).

Let’s first take a look at the current composition of the Class III Senate map as of the 117th Congress, which will be sworn in on January 2, 2021. (Note, as mentioned above, only one of Georgia’s Senators—Democrat Raphael Warnock—is up for reelection as this map has not been updated.)

Note that all maps are made with YAPMS.com and, for predictions, margin colors used are as follows (the safer the margin, the darker the color):

• If the winning margin is expected to be greater than or equal to 15 percent, the state is “safe”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between five and 15 percent, the state is “likely”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between one and five percent, the state is “lean”; and
• If the winning margin is expected to be within one percent, the state is “tilt.”

We’ll first start by coloring in all the safe states. These states are almost certain to vote one way or the other, and it is improbable that the characterizations for these states will change from now till the 2022 Midterms.

Democratic incumbents in 10 states and Republican incumbents in 13 states are defending their seats. These seats are, alphabetically:

• Richard Shelby’s (R) seat in Alabama.
• John Boozman’s (R) seat in Arkansas.
• Alex Padilla’s (D) seat in California.
• Richard Blumenthal’s (D) seat in Connecticut.
• Brian Schatz’s (D) seat in Hawaii.
• Mike Crapo’s (R) seat in Idaho.
• Tammy Duckworth’s (D) seat in Illinois.
• Todd Young’s (R) seat in Indiana.
• Jerry Moran’s (R) seat in Kansas.
• Rand Paul’s (R) seat in Kentucky.
• John Neely Kennedy’s (R) seat in Louisiana.
• Chris Van Hollen’s (D) seat in Maryland.
• Roy Blunt’s (R) seat in Missouri.
• Chuck Schumer’s (D) seat in New York.
• John Hoeven’s (R) seat in North Dakota.
• James Lankford’s (R) seat in Oklahoma.
• Ron Wyden’s (D) seat in Oregon.
• John Thune’s (R) seat in South Dakota.
• Tim Scott’s (R) seat in South Carolina.
• Mike Lee’s (R) seat in Utah.
• Patrick Leahy’s (D) seat in Vermont.
• Patty Murray’s (D) seat in Washington.

There should be no explanation needed as to why these incumbents will be easily reelected. The states they are from have a solid voting base for their respective parties, and aside from the danger of being primaried by someone from their own party (which could happen in states like California or New York), they should have no worries about their reelection.

Before moving on to the likely characterizations, I would like to point out that in general, midterm elections go against the party which has a president in the White House, so it is more likely than not that the 2022 midterm cycle will be more favorable to the Republicans than the Democrats. For this reason, I expect states like Colorado and Arizona, which have been moving to the left, to shift less than they have in the previous few election cycles. All of this could obviously change as the election gets closer.

Having said that, let’s now move on to the likely states.

In this categorization, for the Democrats, there is Colorado and Nevada, while for the Republicans, there is Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.

There should be hardly any discussion necessary for why Colorado is a likely Democratic state. In fact, by 2022, it could even be a safe Democratic state with the rate the state is moving leftward at. Incumbent Michael Bennet (D) was last elected by a six-point margin, and with the state voting for President-Elect Joe Biden by nearly a safe margin, the state is practically solid for Democrats.

The same is true for the Republican states of Alaska. Alaska has been traditionally Republican, even if it has voted for Republicans by lesser margins in recent years. Republican Lisa Murkowski, one of the most centrist bipartisan Republicans in the Senate, is hugely popular in Alaska, even winning a write-in campaign before when she was primaried by a more conservative Republican, becoming the second senator ever in American history to win via write-in votes. However, she has never won a majority of the vote before. Even so, with the state passing ranked-choice voting in a ballot measure this past November, Murkowski is likely to be reelected to another term. Lately, though, Murkowski has floated the idea of leaving the party if the party continues to be dominated by Trump, so this may have to change to “independent.”

For Iowa and Ohio, these are two states that have been moving steadily rightward these past couple of years. Considering incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley from Iowa won his previous election by a very, very solid margin, even if he retires (which he may, considering he is 87), the seat still seems quite likely at this point to remain in Republican hands. The same goes for Ohio. Incumbent Republican Rob Portman won by 21 percent in his last election, and with him likely to run for reelection, the seat isn’t likely to flip.

Nevada is a state that I had trouble characterizing. Considering incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is unlikely to have the same problem as Joe Biden with regard to winning over the Latino vote, and the fact that the state voted for a Democratic senator by a likely margin in the 2018 midterms, it is possible for her to win reelection by a likely margin, although this could move down as the election nears. However, a Democrat is still expected to win Nevada, no matter the margin.

We now get to the lean states, which are the more competitive states.

Florida is classified as a lean Republican state right off the bat. Considering incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is well-known (albeit probably disliked by many) and Florida’s rightward shift, it seems more likely than not he will be reelected to another term. Though this is definitely a pickup opportunity for the Democrats, at this point in time, the odds aren’t very favorable for them. However, this race is still extremely competitive, and we may even see some even more pro-Trump Republicans, like Ivanka Trump, run. This means that the race is entirely winnable for the Democrats.

Democrat Mark Kelly in Arizona will be up for reelection in 2022. If that name sounds familiar, that’s because he just won Arizona’s special Senate election in November and was sworn in in late November, causing Arizona to go from two Republican to two Democratic seats in just two election cycles. Considering Arizona’s leftward shift and the state voting for Biden (albeit narrowly), it is quite likely that Kelly can win a full term since he will have the incumbency advantage.

The first flip is in the state of Pennsylvania. As mentioned, Republican Pat Toomey is retiring, so this will be an open race, giving both parties a good chance at winning this race. Considering Pennsylvania is generally more blue than red, there is a larger chance that a Democrat could win this seat than Republicans holding it.

Prior to last week’s events at the U.S. Capitol, Wisconsin would have been considered a tossup, but based on the fact that Wisconsin rejected Trump in the 2020 election and that the incumbent senator, Republican Ron Johnson, has been a staunch Trump ally, even threatening to object certification of electoral votes (though he later withdrew after the insurrection), it seems fairly possible Wisconsin may send Johnson packing. However, the outcome of this race is far from certain, and could still change between now and 2022.

Since Georgia shocked the entire nation and voted for two Democrats this year in the runoffs, this race is being classified as lean as of now. Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor at the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, will be defending his seat. Since he is the more popular of the two Democratic senators elected (he won by two percent compared to 1.1 for Jon Ossoff, Georgia’s other Democratic senator), he seems to have a good chance of keeping his seat, for now, if turnout remains high in 2022.

The last state is North Carolina. North Carolina has always been stubbornly Republican, and Democrats even lost by two points in this year’s Senate race there. Though the state is urbanizing and growing in population, it remains to be seen whether Democrats can catch up by 2022. Thus, even though incumbent Republican Richard Burr is retiring, the race will be rated as lean Republican for now.

That leaves us with 52 Democratic seats and 48 Republican seats. The only flips are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, going from red to blue. That increases the Democratic majority from 50 seats (with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tiebreaker) to 52 seats.

In conclusion, much is still up in the air about the 2022 Senate elections. The Democrats look like they have a good chance at holding their majority in the Senate, but it is equally as likely that Republicans could make a few unexpected gains and regain a Senate majority. We will definitely cover the Senate races in more detail over the course of the next two years, so stay tuned by subscribing on the right. Leave a comment down below to tell me what type of content you’d like to see.