California Gov. Gavin Newsom Faces a Recall Effort

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a major recall effort organized in part by the state GOP after outrage began last year over coronavirus-related restrictions. It is the largest and likeliest-to-succeed recall effort of a California governor every since then-Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was recalled in 2003, with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger succeeding him.

California has one of the laxest recall laws of any state in the entire country. All elected officials, from the governor to state legislature members to justices on the state Supreme Court and all other statewide elected positions can be recalled in California, one of just a few states to allow this. Despite this, though, only six recalls have succeeded in history, and only one of them, the aforementioned recall of Davis, involved a governor successfully being recalled.

In California, if a recall petition garners enough signatures (the current amount is approximately 1.5 million—12 percent of the number of voters in the previous election for that office), a special recall election will be held, where voters statewide will be presented with a question asking whether or not the official should be recalled and a separate question asking who should replace the official if he is successfully recalled. In the 2003 gubernatorial recall election, 135 people filed papers to be listed on the ballot in the recall election. As mentioned, Schwarzenegger eventually won.

The effort to recall Newsom began last year, with proponents of Newsom’s recall arguing that his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the deadly wildfires that scorched California last year, crippling unemployment, and one occasion involving the governor flaunting one of his COVID-19 restrictions to go dine at a fancy restaurant in the Napa Valley.

Two California-based groups, Rescue California and the California Patriot Coalition, have collected over 2 million signatures in support of a governor recall, significantly more than the 1.5 million needed. This gives the groups ample wiggle-room, as the recall effort would still go through even if a quarter of the signatures were deemed invalid. The deadline is for the recall is March 17. Therefore, it is highly likely that there will be a recall election,

When the Republican National Committee joined in the recall effort by investing over $250,000 into the effort, the push over Newsom’s recall became a nationwide battle.

National Republicans are investing into the recall effort as they see this as an opportunity to to unify around a common cause in the lead-up to the 2022 midterm election. By getting both pro-Trump and anti-Trump members to support the effort, the GOP could enter the 2022 elections more unified.

RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel called Newsom’s COVID-19 restrictions “authoritarian measures” and “blatant overreach,” while also calling him out as being “woefully unqualified to lead the state of California.”

Even though Newsom’s popularity has declined, as seen in a Morning Consult poll taken in early February, as a whole, Newsom is still far more approved of than he is disapproved of and is more popular than he was in January 2020. However, more recent data from the University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies showed that Newsom’s ratings have significantly declined, with his approval now being in the net-negatives.

With both statewide and national Republicans supporting the effort to recall Newsom, Democrats have fought back with their own campaigns. On Monday, a crowd of prominent Democrats, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Alex Padilla, D-Calif., and Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., and Stacey Abrams, a Georgia Democrat, denounced the recall and, along with other Democratic officials, launched the “Stop the Republican Recall” campaign, firmly tying the recall effort to the GOP and making the clearest step that Democrats believe that the recall effort will qualify.

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., called Newsom’s leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic “courageous” and made “tough calls that kept Californians safe and helped them recover financially,” and said that “defeating this cynical, Republican recall effort will be one of the most important priorities this year.”

The committee launched by Democrats, headed by Newsom himself, will allow Newsom to raise money in unlimited amounts to help him defend his seat in the now-likely-to-happen recall election. State law mandates that challengers must adhere to contribution limits, so on the money front, the Democrats have a massive advantage.

The committee also argues that white supremacist and right-wing militia groups are behind the effort to recall Newsom, citing articles from the Los Angeles Times. Recall organizers have denounced this as a “smear effort,” claiming that Newsom is unable to defend his record.

On Twitter, Newsom denounced the effort as a “partisan, Republican recall.”

I won’t be distracted by this partisan, Republican recall — but I will fight it.

There is too much at stake.

Getting Californians vaccinated, our economy safely reopened, and our kids back in school are simply too important to risk.

Join us: https://t.co/Jfpe1IlF4m

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 15, 2021

However, it seems that Democrats have little to worry about. Although Republicans have said, citing data, that a large percentage of Californians (58.3 percent) would like to see someone other than Newsom be governor, the same data also indicates that a plurality of Californians would not support the recall effort. A majority (57.4 percent) of respondents also indicate that they believe California is headed in the right direction.

It also doesn’t help the GOP in that California has gotten significantly more partisan over the years. When the effort to recall Davis succeeded in 2003, leading to the election of Schwarzenegger, a Republican, as governor, the state was far from the liberal stronghold it is today. In fact, just a year later, in the 2004 election, President George W. Bush only lost the state by single digits. Yes, Bush was just under 10 percent away from winning California. Compare that to recent elections, when the state has gone to Democrats by large margins. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by 29 percent, making it the fifth most-Democratic state in the country (after only Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii). Also, in 2018, Newsom won almost 62 percent of the vote. His Republican challenger, John H. Cox, won just 38 percent of the vote.

And the 2 million signatures the Republicans collected isn’t that much, either. It’s important to note that being the most populous state in the country, California has a lot of Republicans. In fact, just over 6 million people voted for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, which, in terms of raw vote count, is the most out of any state. (11.1 million people voted for Biden.)

Therefore, even Newsom is successfully recalled, it is extremely, extremely improbable that a Republican will be elected to be governor of California. That would require a huge amount of crossover support, which simply isn’t happening given polarization and the state’s partisan nature. When a Democratic voter is given a choice between Newsom and a Republican, there is a near-certain chance that that voter will pick Newsom over a Republican, and even if they are dissatisfied with Newsom, voters will likely elect a different Democrat into the governorship, not a Republican.

In addition, Newsom also recently pledged to appoint a Black woman to the Senate should Sen. Dianne Feinstein retire, which is also likely to score him political points.