With the midterm elections being just over a year away, states are starting to begin the redistricting process by proposing new congressional maps after the results of the 2020 Census were released a few months ago. Though just four of the 44 states that go through redistricting (those that have more than just an at-large district) have finalized their maps, we are starting to get a good idea of what each party is going for with their new maps.
We are going to take a look at the 23 states that have either proposed a map or have finalized their maps in alphabetical order and discuss each one.
Arizona
Neither party controls the redistricting process in Arizona, as the state uses an independent citizens’ commission to draw maps. The current congressional map has three Democratic-leaning districts, five Republican-leaning districts, and one tossup district. Of the nine districts, five are currently represented by Democrats and four by Republicans.
The commission is currently considering four different map proposals, all of which have four Republican-leaning districts and between two and three Democratic-leaning districts, and the rest tossups.
The third and fourth plans would feature more competitive maps, but come at the expense of Democrats, as they would lose a Democratic-leaning seat and two of the three tossups would still lean Republican. The preliminary and second plans would feature a more balanced partisan composition with tossup districts hardly in favor of any party.
The most endangered incumbent is Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran, who currently represents a district with a Republican +6 partisan lean, as three proposals feature his district getting significantly redder. Republican Rep. David Schweikert is also in danger, with his Republican seat getting much more competitive.
Arkansas
Believe it or not, in 2010, the last time redistricting occurred, Democrats had full control of the Arkansas state government, but they failed to use their power to create a majority-Black district in Arkansas. With the state getting significantly redder, Democrats now control zero out of four of the state’s congressional seats and no part of the state government. Republicans have seized on the opportunity to try and pass a favorable map to them that divvies up the state’s only major Democratic bastion — Little Rock — among three separate districts. It would also split up members of minority groups among three districts, giving minority groups no representation.
Under the new map, each district would have a partisan lean of at least Republican +17, and with Democratic votes being “diluted” among the state’s districts, these “wasted” votes would benefit the Republican party by a 21-point-margin.
However, what is interesting is how Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson decided to deal with this map that was passed by both chambers of the Arkansas Legislature. He chose to neither approve nor veto the bill. Though the bill would automatically become law 20 days after the legislature adjourns, Hutchinson noted that he did this to allow “those who wish to challenge the redistricting plan in court to do so,” signaling disapproval over the decision to split up Little Rock.
A group, Arkansas for a United Natural State, has started a petition to put the map up for a referendum. State law allows for a referendum to be held if 6 percent of legal voters sign a petition within 90 days of the legislature’s adjournment, and a special election could be held if 15 percent of voters sign.
Colorado
Colorado, which uses an independent, nonpartisan commission to draw legislative districts, is close to finalizing a map. The state is gaining one district after the 2020 Census, and the commission is planning on making that new district a competitive district. In addition, there will be four Democratic seats and three Republican ones.
Democrats are displeased with the map as it could be possible for Republicans to win up to half of the state’s congressional seats in a good year, despite being in a state that is almost solidly blue. The Colorado Supreme Court, fully controlled by appointees from Democratic governors, could still reject the map, and legal challenges might arise, so this map is still not final.
Georgia
Georgia Republicans have currently proposed a map in this state where they fully control the redistricting process, but the map is far from final. The map turns the state from having four Democratic districts, two tossup districts held by Democrats, and eight Republican districts into a map with four Democratic seats, one tossup seat, and nine Republican seats in a move that will likely doom Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, as she will be put into a new Republican +16 district. (However, that district is trending blue, so it could become competitive in a few years’ time.)
The fact that Georgia Republicans did not try to further gerrymander the state is indicative of their fear that it could backfire on them as Atlanta’s suburbs are getting more and more Democratic. They even shored up Democratic Rep. Carolyn Bordeaux’s seat, whose seat moves from Republican +4 to Democratic +14. Any attempts to further gerrymander the area around Atlanta could backfire with the area’s booming population growth that could push barely Republican districts blue quickly.
Hawaii
This solidly Democratic state with an independent commission has two proposed maps, but neither would feature drastic changes from the status quo: the state would remain with two solidly Democratic districts.
Idaho
Like Hawaii, this Republican bastion has an independent commission that has proposed two maps, but both districts remain solidly Republican.
Illinois
Illinois Democrats have released an initial proposal, which, despite the state losing a state in reapportionment, features Democratic gains. The state would move from having 11 Democratic districts, five Republican districts, and two tossups to having 11 Democratic districts, three Republican districts, and three tossups that lean Democratic, though those tossups could be further amended to make them all solidly Democratic. As Illinois is one of the Democrats’ biggest redistricting weapons this cycle, they will likely wield their power to pass a very favorable map to them.
Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s seat will be removed under this proposal. The thinking is that Kinzinger, a moderate Republican, has alienated so many pro-Trump Republicans that he would likely lose a Republican primary, so eliminating his seat would be safer than keeping it. Republican Rep. Rodney Davis is also in danger, as he will see his Republican +8 seat move to a Democratic +7 seat, with his new district looking rather like a snake.
The map has still not been finalized, however, and it is entirely possible that Democrats may ultimately adopt a proposal similar to the one on the right to make all their districts solid.
Indiana
Indiana has already finalized its congressional map. The map, passed by Indiana Republicans who have full control over redistricting in that state, keeps the state at seven Republican seats and two Democratic seats, but it makes the competitive 5th district significantly safer for Republicans, denying Democrats the chance to contest it in a good year.
Iowa
Iowa has an independent commission for redistricting but is subject to be overridden by the Republican legislature. The first proposal converted two of the three tossup districts in the old map into a Democratic and Republican district respectively, retaining only one tossup and one Republican district. That map was rejected by the Iowa Senate, and so it goes back to the drawing board. We are still waiting on another map to come from the commission.
Maine
Maine has finalized its map, and it is not too big a departure from the previous map, which had one Democratic-leaning and one Republican-leaning districts, though both are currently represented by Democrats. The only change in this map is that the Republican-leaning district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, gets slightly bluer, from Republican +11 to Republican +10.
Maryland
Though Maryland has a commission that proposes congressional maps, Democrats fully control redistricting here as the commission is purely advisory and subject to be overridden by the Democratic legislature. The governor is Republican, but Democrats have a two-thirds majority in the legislature, so any vetoes can be overridden.
The commission has proposed eliminating one Democratic seat and turning it red, so that the Democrats go from a 7-1 majority to a 6-2 majority, but that is highly unlikely to fly under the Democratic legislature, who are well aware that Maryland is another one of the Democrats’ redistricting weapons. The Democratic legislature might even go for a gerrymander that gives the party control of all eight House seats in Maryland, and with margins of at least 15 points, too. Such a map could look like the one below.
Michigan
Michigan’s independent commission is now trying to decide between four possible maps that would all remove a Republican seat due to Michigan losing a House seat in reapportionment. Two of the proposed maps would leave the map at four Democratic-leaning seats and two tossups (along with seven Republican-leaning seats), while the other two proposals would further eliminate a Republican seat and make it Democratic, giving the Democrats five seats.
These proposals are likely to be at least somewhat of a relief for Democrats, as they would not lose a safe House seat in this state. It is also likely that the commission might choose one of the two maps with five Democratic-leaning districts, as those feature significantly less “wasted” votes by packing voters into a single district and have median seats much closer to the state’s partisan lean.
Montana
Montana is gaining a house seat after the 2020 Census, making it the first time since 1993 that the state has had more than one district. The independent commission in the state is currently considering nine maps: three would create a new, highly competitive district in the western part of the state by grouping liberal cities together, two would create a new, moderately Republican-leaning district, while four would create a new Republican-leaning district. The commission is expected to finalize a map by Oct. 21.
Nebraska
Nebraska has also finalized its congressional map, which is similar to the old one, but makes the highly competitive 2nd district slightly redder, moving it from even to Republican +3. This might make it harder for a Democrat to win the 2nd district in future presidential elections.
New Mexico
Democrats in New Mexico are considering eight separate redistricting proposals, but one of them — congressional concept H — is the front-runner here. That map would make the Republican-leaning district in the current map into a highly competitive, slightly Democratic-leaning new district while retaining the other two Democratic-leaning districts.
New York
Like many other states we have discussed, New York has a purely advisory commission for map-drawing, meaning that Democrats can enact their own map if they so wish. With the Democrats having full control over redistricting in New York for the first time in over 100 years, New York Democrats are likely to ensure their party’s biggest redistricting weapon — their state of New York — is gerrymandered to benefit their party. For that reason, we are expecting New York’s legislature to veto the somewhat fairly-drawn maps proposed by the commission.
Expect the new map, which will have one fewer congressional seat than the old map due to reapportionment, to turn a map with 19 Democrats and eight Republicans into one with 23 Democrats and just three Republicans.
Ohio
Republicans have fully gerrymandered Ohio since the last redistricting cycle, and with the state losing one congressional district, it isn’t hard to see why Republicans wouldn’t try that again. The redistricting process in Ohio is fairly convoluted, but at the end of the day, the Republicans still have full control over redistricting here. Ohio Democrats have proposed a map where one new Democratic district and two new competitive districts are created, but that is unlikely to pass the Republican-controlled legislature.
Oregon
Oregon Democrats welded their power in the legislature here and walked back on a promise with Oregon Republicans to draw fair maps here and passed a map that gives the Democrats two new seats after the state gained a district in reapportionment. The previous map had two Democratic-leaning seats, two tossups, and one Republican-leaning seat. This map removes one tossup and makes use of the extra seat to give Democrats two new seats.
Texas
Texas has been so thoroughly gerrymandered by Republicans that even their proposed map does not add any extra Republican seats aside from the two that the state gained in reapportionment. It shores up support for many Democratic incumbents in big-city suburbsand gives them safe districts, while eliminating many tossup districts to help boost their incumbents as well. The new map has 24 Republican-leaning districts, 13 Democratic-leaning districts, and one tossup. With the state’s current delegation of 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats, this map aims to shore up incumbents and eliminates competitive seats.
Despite the map not eliminating any Democratic seats, it is still bad for Democrats as it makes it much more difficult to contest many seats held by Republicans.
Utah
Utah has an advisory commission that is considering six maps, four of which creates a new, safe blue seat in the Salt Lake City area. However, Republicans can veto the commission’s proposals, and so it seems unlikely any of the maps that create a new blue seat would pass.
Virginia
Democrats currently control seven of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts, but the commission in charge of drawing the maps here is proposing making one of the lean Republican districts held by Democrats redder. It is no surprise that both parties have been competing to draw a map favorable to their party here, and if the redistricting commission doesn’t ultimately agree on a new map, the conservative-leaning Virginia Supreme Court might be deciding on a map.
Washington
Washington state’s independent commission is currently considering two Democratic proposals and two Republican proposals. The Democratic proposals would largely keep the party composition as is, except that the Democratic-held tossup district would be made safer. Republicans want a map where they can gain an extra seat.
The commission will have to agree on a map by Nov. 15, so we are still a while off from finding out what the state’s new map will be.
West Virginia
The last state we will discuss, West Virginia is losing one congressional seat after reapportionment. As all three of the state’s current districts are solidly Republican, one Republican will have to lose his or her seat.
The state legislature seems to have decided on a map that will likely put Republican Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney into the same district, though Mooney could also choose to run in the other district. In any case, West Virginia losing a seat is a definite loss for Republicans as they are guaranteed to lose a seat.
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