The notion that foreign policy was unimportant to most Americans is a long-held belief by many. One explanation is that foreign policy issues felt distant. Another explanation is that Americans lacked sufficient knowledge of it. But while that may be true in times of peace, Americans definitely do care about foreign policy when a major crisis occurs. This is clearly shown in the overwhelming response Americans have displayed with regards to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine by Russia has dominated the news worldwide. U.S. broadcasters are not an exception: “Ukraine” has been mentioned over 70 times more than “COVID” on cable news channels since the invasion began. As a quick comparison, Ukraine was mentioned in 3,095 television news clips at the start of the invasion. Former President Donald Trump was mentioned just 2,675 times on Election Day 2020.
The heavy media coverage of the issue is clear evidence that Americans care greatly about the invasion. An Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted between Feb. 28 and Mar. 1 shows 85% of Americans indicating they are very or somewhat familiar with the Russia-Ukraine war. Just 2% of Americans had not heard of the conflict. According to a Feb. 25-26 CNN/SSRS poll, 79% of Americans said they were following the war very or somewhat closely.
All this news coverage is making Americans prioritize the war. In a YouGov/Yahoo News poll conducted Feb. 24-27, 23% of Americans said Russia and Ukraine should be a top priority for President Biden, tied for first with inflation. Forty-five percent said Russia and Ukraine should be one of the top three issues for Biden to address, second only to inflation at 55%.
The findings of these polls is consistent with the notion that while Americans may shrug off day-to-day foreign policy, major international crises often grab their attention. In fact, a study shows that not only do most Americans have opinions on foreign policy issues, these issues can be polarizing among the electorate and voters actively judge politicians on it. With major crises like this one, a heavy media coverage certainly helps Americans form an opinion on it.
By and large, Americans are in support of the Ukrainian government, especially Ukrianian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who led the country’s sharp resistance to Russian advances. Of Americans who have an opinion of Zelensky, 72% view him very or somewhat favorably, according to a YouGov/Economist poll conducted Feb. 26-Mar. 1. On the contrary, just 11% of all Americans view Russian President Vladimir Putin favorably.
With regard to the actions taken by the U.S. government in response to the invasion of Ukraine, the public seems to be satisfied so far. The Biden administration has enacted crippling sanctions on Russia, including cutting of the country from the global banking system and restricted the Russian central bank’s access to U.S. dollars. However, Biden has promised not to send any American troops to defend Ukraine against Russia. Meanwhile, the president is also mulling sending fighting jets over to Ukraine.
Doing so is wise on the president’s part — Americans have been souring on “forever wars” for the past 20 years. Despite overwhelmingly supporting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan overwhelmingly when they was announced by President George W. Bush in 2001, most now believe the wars to have been mistakes.
The evidence is clear. A YouGov/Economist poll conducted just after the invasion on Feb. 26-Mar. 1 indicates that while 65% of Americans support the economic sanctions on Russia, just 19% support sending U.S. soldiers in to fight Russia. Views on these issues were rather consistent over party lines.
An Associated Press/NORC poll conducted just prior to the invasion indicated that just 24% of Americans believed the U.S. should play a major role in the conflict. Yet, a Mar. 4 poll from Ipsos/Reuters indicated that 62% of Americans believed sanctions on Russian oil and gas should be enacted, even if that meant higher gas prices. Politicians, too, were well in favor of an embargo on Russian oil and gas, despite the political consequences rising oil prices could have.
One reason for the massive disparity in support for sanctions versus sending in troops could be explained by U.S. failures in Afghanistan and the Middle East. The belief that the Afghanistan war was a mistake was likely compounded with the fact that it dragged on for over 20 years with little to show for. Fear that a war with Russia might drag on to become a “forever war” likely played a big part in the public refusing to support sending in troops.
The war could have massive impacts on domestic politics, too. Like 9/11, wars can cause public opinion to shift in favor of a president, though the extent to which this is happening now is debated. A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll found Biden’s handling of the Ukraine crisis up 18 points, at 52%. Evidence of the shift in public opinion for Biden is indicated by the rises in handling over the economy (up 8 points to 45%), the COVID-19 pandemic (up 8 points to 55%), and overall approval, which went up 8 points to 47%. Though this might have been from the State of the Union address on Friday, major jumps in approval from them are usually rare and short-lived. The address was well-received, anyway, so that is a plus for Biden.
However, other data has indicated that while Americans approved of the actions that Biden has taken in Ukraine, less show enthusiasm for his overall handling of the crisis. The situation is still fluid, however, and more data is needed to determine how much, if at all, the conflict in Ukraine will affect Biden’s approval.
As the Ukrainian crisis has brought about bipartisan condemnation of Russia, and more and more see Russia as an enemy to the United States, further decisive action taken by the Biden administration could improve his approval ratings. What’s more, a strong jobs report in Februrary indicate that the U.S. economy is moving in the right direction. Over 678,000 jobs were added last month alone, far overshooting the consensus 400,000 jobs expected. The unemployment rate is also at an all-time low. COVID-19 is also in dramatic retreat across much of the country. Cases have fallen from an average of over 800,000 a day at its peak in mid-January to just 45,000 now.
Since the economy, pandemic, and Ukraine together make up three of the most important issues the public believe to be facing the U.S. now, positive trends in these three aspects could boost the administration, potentially reversing predicted Republican gains in this November’s midterms. If inflation — the last major issue as indicated by voters — could be reined in before then, we could well be looking at a Democratic (and Joe Biden) comeback this November. However, rising gas prices could still pose a major headache for the Biden administration.