This post last updated on Wednesday, November 4, 2020, at 8:30 a.m. EST.
It’s now one day after Election Day but we still do not have a clear winner of the presidency; nor do we have a clear idea of which party will gain Senate control. Though the House has already been called for the Democrats by a number of news organizations, a number of swing states are still yet to be called.
Let’s first take a look at the Electoral College. As of writing, all major news organizations have called at least 224 electoral votes for Biden and 213 for Trump. Let’s take a quick look at where each state has been called by major news organizations (TETC denotes Too Early to Call and TCTC denotes Too Close to Call):
As seen, there haven’t been any surprise upsets so far: Iowa, Ohio, and Texas all voted for Trump, which was expected. Florida has always been extremely unpredictable, and the vote falls within the expected margin of error of polls—after all, Biden only led there by just under two percent. Trump seems to have made a lot of ground in Hispanic (especially Cuban Hispanics) voters in this election cycle. It is possible that the GOP’s painting of the Democrats as a “socialist” party has scared away many conservative-leaning Cuban Hispanics, which are very populous in Florida.
As expected, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s Second District have all been called for Biden. While Maine’s first and at-large votes have not been called by all organizations yet, it is quite safe to assume that they will be going to Biden.
Many news organizations have not yet called Arizona, but the Associated Press, the gold standard for race-calling, has called Arizona for Joe Biden. Newshacker Blog uses Associated Press race calls to assist in our own calls, so we have also called Arizona for Biden. At 8:30 a.m. EST, with 82 percent of precincts reporting, Joe Biden leads by five percent in Arizona, which would be quite a difficult lead for Donald Trump to overcome. In the key Maricopa County, where Phoenix lies, Biden leads Trump by seven points (86 percent of precincts are reporting in the county).
While Nevada is expected to go to Joe Biden, due to a large number of uncounted mail ballots (the state will accept all ballots received over the next week), it is currently too early to call the state. Biden currently leads by about one percent, with 86 percent of precincts reporting. The state will not report any new vote counts until noon EST on Thursday.
Though Alaska has not been called yet, with just 36 percent of precincts reporting, the state is expected to go to Trump. However, it will be interesting to see how much ground Biden was able to make in the state. Trump currently leads by 27 percent, but no mail ballots have been counted (none will be counted until at least next week). Therefore, this state is currently still too early to call.
Though Wisconsin and Michigan have looked solid for Trump until very recently, that is because in-person votes, which lean Republican, are reported first. Mail ballots are tallied later, and as these numbers come in, it looks good Biden. Biden is expanding his lead in Wisconsin (as of writing, he leads by one percent with 92 percent of precincts reporting). This is, again, due to mail ballots being overwhelmingly Democratic. In Michigan, Trump and Biden are currently tied, with 86 percent of precincts reporting. Again, because votes coming in are expected to be extremely Democratic, it is likely Biden will win both Michigan and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania has 75 percent of precincts reporting and Trump leads by about 700,000 votes. However, due to many counties, especially the Democratic-leaning counties of Philadelphia, Delaware, Alleghany, Centre, and Montgomery still not reporting many votes, Biden could pull a victory here since the remaining ballots are all mail ballots and expected to be overwhelmingly Democratic. Note that if Biden wins Mich. and Wis., he wouldn’t need Pa. to secure the victory.
Georgia and North Carolina currently sit at 92 and 95 percent of precincts reporting respectively, but the race is extremely close there: within 2.2 percent (100,000 votes) and 1.4 percent (76,000 votes) in each state respectively, they are currently too close to call. Biden is a slight favorite to win in Georgia, because the overwhelmingly Democratic areas surrounding Atlanta have not finished counting ballots yet. In N.C., because the race is so close, the race likely won’t be called until we have more votes coming in.
We should have a pretty clear idea of who is winning the presidency within a few hours.
In the Senate, the parties are currently tied at 47 seats each, with Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado (a flip), and Arizona (also a flip) being called for the Democrats. Arizona now has two Democratic senators, which means that in just two years, Democrats have flipped both Arizona Senate seats. Colorado’s flip is hardly surprising, given Colorado’s status as a blue state.
Montana, Texas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, and Iowa have all been called for the Republicans. Alabama, a Republican flip, has also been called. Iowa’s race is quite surprising, but given last-minute poll adjustments and the state’s Republican lean, it isn’t too terribly surprising.
Alaska, with just 36 percent of precincts reporting, is too early to call, as is Maine, with just 68 percent of precincts reporting (ranked-choice voting could play a part in this state).
Georgia’s special election will advance to a runoff in January, with the candidates being Kelly Loeffler (R-Inc.) and Raphael Warnock (D). Therefore, this race is currently too early to call.
Though Michigan is currently too close to call, we expect that the vote share will widen later as mail ballots are counted, likely favoring Tina Smith (D-Inc.). Again, like with the presidential race, Georgia (91 percent precincts reporting) is too close to call, with David Perdue (R-Inc.) currently holding a 200,000 vote, or four percent, lead, and North Carolina (94 percent precincts reporting) is also too close to call, with Thom Tillis (R-Inc.) currently holding a 100,000 vote, or 1.8 percent lead. Georgia’s race could certainly go blue as lots of Atlanta votes, which lean heavily Democratic, still haven’t been counted. North Carolina will require more votes to be reported in order to be called.
In conclusion, White House and Senate control is still unclear. I will be back with an update once a candidate has secured the White House, or when a party has secured a Senate majority.
Make sure to check out the 2020 election coverage page.