Senate Control Likely Decided By January Georgia Runoffs

With the Democrats failing in flipping Maine and Iowa’s U.S. Senate seats and likely failing to flip North Carolina’s Senate seat, and failing to win over voters in Montana, South Carolina, Alabama, and Kansas, all seats thought to be competitive, the control of the U.S. Senate will probably (barring any surprises in N.C. and Alaska) end up being determined by two key Senate runoff elections to be held on January 5.

Unfortunately, the expectation that this election cycle would be a “blue wave” year failed to materialize, with the Democrats only making a net gain of one seat in the U.S. Senate (the Democrats flipped Colo. and Ariz., but lost an incumbent in Ala.).

Control of the Senate is very important if President-Elect Joe Biden would like to get any significant legislation in his favor passed. With a divided Congress, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could just simply choose not to vote on proposals like expanding health care, abortion rights, the court, LGBTQ rights, and more, which would be a major thorn in the Biden administration. Additionally, it could also prove to be more difficult to nominate federal positions with an opposition-held Senate. As a result, the Senate is of utmost importance if we would like to see a smooth term.

Had Biden not won Georgia, the Senate would probably have been rated as “safe Republican” at this point. With the Democrats failing to win over extremely competitive races in Maine, Iowa, and North Carolina (expected, but not called, for the GOP) and moderately competitive races in Kansas, South Carolina, Montana, and Alabama, control of the Senate looks bleak for the Democrats.

Luckily for the Democrats, though, Georgia happens to have two Senate races this year, as there is one Senate special election there. In addition, Georgia has a runoff voting system, where if no candidate secures a majority of the vote-share, the top-two vote-getters would advance to a runoff to be held at a future date. And, in the third stroke of luck so far for the Democrats in Georgia, the Democratic candidate in the special election won a plurality of the vote-share and in the normal Senate race, incumbent David Perdue (R) failed to garner the needed 50 percent of the vote-share to avoid a runoff (he sits at 49.7 percent of the vote). This means that both of Georgia’s Senate races will advance to a runoff election, which is scheduled to be held on January 5.

Because Georgia has been reliably Republican now for a number of decades, it wouldn’t have been out of the question to assume that both races would go to the Republicans. But in another lucky stroke, President-Elect Joe Biden is expected to win Georgia narrowly. This is evidence that the Democrats have the necessary turnout and voter numbers to propel a Democrat to victory in a statewide election. Therefore, the fate of these two races is now much more blurry: no one is too sure how the state will vote in these runoffs.

And assuming that the Democrats win both runoffs, that will leave the Senate at a 50-50 tie. Whenever a tie in the Senate occurs, the Vice President (which will be Kamala Harris), being the President of the Senate, breaks ties and gives his or her own party the majority. Though 50 seats are all that will be required for the Democrats to win a majority, it is particularly worrisome because it means that not even one Democratic senator can break from his own party. This is a problem because Democratic senators from red states, like Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) are typically more conservative than the average Democrat, and so some of the Democrats’ policies may not be supported by them. This includes expanding the court and abolishing the filibuster, in which Manchin has already stated his opposition. Thus, the Democrats will seriously need to be able to ensure every single senator votes with the party, or at least convince some moderate Republicans to vote for the Democrats’ agenda. (This includes senators like Susan Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska, and possibly Mitt Romney from Utah.)

With regard to turnout, the Democrats are hopeful that the promise of a Democratic trifecta and the turnout driven up former Georgia governor candidate Stacey Abrams along with special election candidate Raphael Warnock, both of whom are Black, could help propel them to victory. Meanwhile, the GOP is worried that Donald Trump’s loss could de-incentivize white rural voter turnout, potentially costing them the Senate election.

It is likely that Senate control rests in the hands of the state of Georgia. If you are from Georgia, you can, if you haven’t already, register to vote in the runoffs until December. Learn more about voting here.

Make sure to check out the 2020 election coverage page for more on the election.