There were lots of surprises in terms of how each state voted in the 2020 election. A number of states shifted drastically in terms of how they voted this election compared to the 2016 election. And though this year was not the Democratic landslide many had hoped for, all states to see big swings were to the left.
Let’s first compare the electoral maps of the 2020 election with the 2016 election. The first map shows the margins of victory for each Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 election and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016. The margin colors used are as follows:
- If a state voted for a candidate by a margin of over 15 points, the state is “safe” and is the darkest color.
- If a state voted for a candidate by a margin of five to 15 points, it is “likely.”
- If a state voted for a candidate by a margin of one to five points, it is “lean.”
- If a state voted for a candidate by a margin of less than one point, it is “tilt” and is the lightest color.
Note that these margins refer to the popular vote margin.
However, the diagrams may seem a bit misleading. For instance, although Texas remained in the “likely Republican” column both times, the winning margin narrowed considerably, from nine points to six points. And though Wisconsin flipped, for example, it moved by less than two points.
In today’s post, we are going to take a look at the states that shifted by the most (a shift of more than five percentage points). This is the first post in a multi-part series where we look at how each state swung.
All the states in this category were swings toward the Democratic Party. No state swung by more than five points for the Republicans. We will first look at the safest states, and then gradually move into the more purple swing states.
The first couple of states to go on this list are in the Northeast region of the country. Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Vermont all swung by greater than five percent margins for Joe Biden. In addition, Maine’s first congressional district and the at-large vote there also fall into this category.
Delaware is hardly surprising: it is Joe Biden’s home state, after all. The state swung from an 11-point margin for Clinton in 2016, to voting for Biden by almost 19 points, an eight-point swing. The state went from being a likely margin to a safe margin.
The rest of these states aren’t very surprising either. These are some of the most solid Democratic states, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton badly underperformed, causing traditionally solid blue states like Connecticut and New Jersey to only vote for her by likely margins. This year, all of these states reaffirmed their status as Democratic strongholds. In addition, this area was quite badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic back in spring, and good leadership by Democrats in these states allowed them to flatten the curves relatively quickly. This could also have been a factor why these states swung heavily to the left.
In addition, even though Maine’s second congressional district, Maine’s more rural district, voted for Trump by about seven points, Biden outperformed Clinton in the much more urbanized first district by almost nine points. This was enough to also shift the at-large vote in Maine to Biden by six points, making a three-point victory for Clinton four years ago a nine-point victory this year.
Another state that swung heavily was the West Coast state of Oregon, with Biden outperforming Clinton by five percent. The state went from an 11-point victory for Clinton to a 16-point victory for Biden. And although Oregon is often associated with being solidly Democratic, in the not-very-distant past, it was not the Democratic stronghold it is today, either. For instance, in 2000, it voted for Al Gore by just 0.1 percent. In 2012, the state was only won by Barack Obama by a likely margin, too.
Trump’s rhetoric against big cities, especially Portland, Ore., is likely to have caused a lot of people to move away from him. Trump’s inflammatory comments against the city and his decisions to send in federal agents to quell protests there hurt not just liberals there, but also conservatives. This may have caused Oregon to swing heavily to the left. In addition, the state holds many liberal values, at odds with the Republican status quo. For instance, the state became the first in the nation to decriminalize almost all illicit substances via a ballot proposal this election, which won handily with more than 58 percent of the vote.
A state in a similar region that also swung heavily Democratic is Colorado. For the first time in decades, it voted to the left of New Mexico, its neighbor to the south. Biden won the state by double digits—13.5 percent—compared to Hillary Clinton’s abysmal performance in the state. She won it by just under five percent. That is a massive 8.5 percent shift in just four years. It is safe to say that, with Denver almost exploding in population, Colorado has cemented itself as a Democratic stronghold.
We will now talk about the last two non-swing states to make it onto this list. Both are Republican stronghold states and in the Great Plains region of the United States. They are Kansas and Nebraska’s first congressional districts.
Kansas is definitely a very surprising addition to the list for most people. It is traditionally one of the most Republican-voting states, yet, this election, it voted for Trump by a likely margin of 14 points, a decrease of about six points. The state voted to the left of neighboring Missouri for the first time in over 100 years. Biden’s gains in the state largely came from college towns and educated voters: he became the first Democrat to win the state’s most populous county (Johnson County) for the first time since 1916, and the first-ever to win Riley County, which contains Kansas State University. He also managed to win Shawnee County, which contains the largest city in the state, Topeka. Since many college-educated voters voted for Joe Biden this election, his gains here do make sense.
With Biden making gains in many of America’s suburbs, he was able to whittle down Nebraska’s first congressional district, a mainly suburban one, down into a 14-point likely margin, a five-point decrease from 2016. With the second district (discussed below) overwhelmingly voting for Biden, it makes sense that this county, containing many of Omaha’s suburbs, would narrow down too.
We now get into the four most contentious states to see major swings. Let’s start with New Hampshire, since it is probably the state here which is least considered a tossup.
It is important to remember that N.H. is the most (comparatively speaking) conservative part of the Northeast. For instance, George W. Bush narrowly won the state back in 2000. Had Al Gore won this state, he would have won the election and Florida would have been an afterthought. And in 2016, the state only went to Clinton by 0.3 points, or just under 3,000 votes. It is, therefore, quite surprising to see the state shift by about seven points this election and vote for Biden by 7.4 percent. This election cements Democrats’ statewide strength in this once-battleground state. With this state being one extensively affected by the opioid crisis, it isn’t surprising Biden’s health care message resonated well with voters here.
Minnesota is another state that cemented itself as a state in which Democrats perform well in. In fact, it is the state with the longest history of voting blue, dating all the way back to 1972 (it was the only state, excluding D.C., to vote for Democrat Walter Mondale in Ronald Reagan’s landslide election in 1984). Biden carried the state by seven percent, a drastic improvement over Clinton’s 1.5 percent margin here. Though Trump had aggressively campaigned here, emphasizing his “law and order” rhetoric to try over protests breaking out in Minneapolis due to the killing of George Floyd, the Minneapolis region overwhelmingly swung to the left compared to 2016. Biden even outperformed Obama (both elections) in the Twin Cities area.
Nebraska’s second district was the state to swing the most in the 2020 election. Having voted for Trump by two percent in 2016, it swung by over eight points to vote for Biden by 6.5 percent, while still voting in a House Republican by two points! Biden’s overperformance in many urban areas and gains among white working-class voters cannot be understated here. This district, which contains Nebraska’s largest city—Omaha—voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
The last state to talk about is Georgia. Georgia was the closest state this election, voting for Biden by just 0.2 percent. That, however, is a five-point swing from 2016, when it went to Trump by a likely margin. Due to explosive population growth in the Atlanta region as well as Democrats beginning to mobilize many voters starting in the 2018 midterms, the state narrowly went to Biden after he was able to overperform Clinton in the Atlanta suburbs significantly. The state is also where Senate control will be decided in January when the state holds its two runoff elections.
For more 2020 election content, check out the 2020 election coverage page.