The 2020 election has shown us some marked shifts in how some states vote. Some states have made themselves evident as being battleground states, while others have solidified for one political party or the other. In today’s post, we are going to discuss and analyze how the results of the 2020 election tell us which states will be (and will not be) the most hotly contested battlegrounds going forward.
Let’s kick off by discussing the states which have pretty clearly cemented themselves with one political party. These states were at least somewhat competitive in the 2020 election and prior elections, but going forward, we are likely to see a party focus less heavily on these states which are probably no longer battlegrounds.
This does not mean, though, that one party should give up on any state. It is never a good idea for a political party to give up on any state. For example, Michigan voted for Barack Obama by a whopping 17 points back in 2008, but just eight years later, in 2016, it voted for Donald Trump, proving that no margin is truly “safe” for a single party.
The states which will probably be less heavily targeted by the Democrats are Iowa and Ohio. These two states were once the nation’s biggest battlegrounds, consistently flipping between the two parties. However, with Ohio losing its status as the nation’s longest-lasting political bellwether, voting for the correct presidential winner since 1964 until 2016, and both states voting for Trump by a solid margin, they have cemented themselves as red states. Both were won by President Trump by a margin of about eight percent this year.
In years prior, the states both voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. However, with the Iowa and Ohio voting for Trump by nine and eight percent respectively in 2016, representing a huge shift from the election prior, most wondered if the states were still battlegrounds, and 2020 cemented these guesses. (The 2016 and 2012 maps are shown below.)
For the Republicans, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia will likely not be focus states. I previously covered these states’ shifts, but, the gist is that the GOP lost a lot of relevancy very quickly in these three states. All had voted red in 2004, but all voted for President-Elect Joe Biden by double-digit margins this year, and the margins have only been getting more and more solid since 2008.
On the other hand, there are a number of states which did not use to be considered battlegrounds, but, with the 2020 election and looking at electoral trends, will probably be the most heavily contested battlegrounds from now on. Let’s now pull up the results of the 2016 and 2012 elections to make some comparisons. (It should be kept in mind that a Republican won in 2016 and a Democrat one in 2012, so it makes sense that the map for 2016 will be far redder than the 2012 map and that the 2020 map will be far bluer than the 2016 map since Joe Biden, a Democrat, won.)
These states are Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. All three are in the southern region of the U.S. and were all once considered Republican strongholds. However, two out of the three on this list voted for Biden this year, and all three narrowed up significantly, throwing their status as GOP strongholds into question.
In the 2004 election, for example, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas voted for George W. Bush by 10.5, 16.6, and 22.9 percent respectively. The following year, in a strong year for the Democrats, they hardly narrowed up, still voting for John McCain by 8.5, 5.2, and 11.8 percent respectively. After a good year for the Democrats, the states became more red again in 2012, voting for Mitt Romney by 9.1, 7.8, and 15.8 percent. However, the next year, a strong year for the GOP which saw Donald Trump get elected, the states narrowed up, voting for Donald Trump by “just” 3.5, 5.1, and 9.0 percent. And this year, Arizona and Georgia flipped and voted for Biden by 0.3 and 0.2 percent, while Texas got narrower and voted for Trump by 5.5 percent.
It is clear that the Republicans’ grip on these once-solid states is dwindling, and the states will definitely be heavily targeted by the Democrats going forward. When Texas flips (at this rate, it’s not a matter of if, but rather, when), it will mean that unless the GOP changes something fundamental about their party, they will probably have a great deal of trouble winning a national election. Maybe, then, we could finally see bipartisan support for eliminating the Electoral College.