Democrats Poised to Gain Control of US Senate

In a fairly surprising turn of events since November, both Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, are expected to unseat incumbent Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia’s two U.S. Senate election runoffs, giving the Democrats a slim majority in the Senate and a trifecta for the first time in a decade.

Yesterday, prior to poll opening in Georgia, Newshacker Blog reported that everything looked to be in the favor of the Democrats in the Georgia Senate runoffs. Not only did the polls and betting odds favor them, but the president’s popularity was down, and the fact that he was refusing to concede plus the emergence of a phone call scandal where the president demanded Georgia officials to “find” 11,780 votes just two days before the election really helped boost the Democrats.

Now, with polls closed and most votes in, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are expected to win election to the U.S. Senate, successfully unseating both of Georgia’s Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, causing both of Georgia’s Senate seats to flip from blue to red in just one election, the first time this has happened since 1994. The balance of power in the Senate now shows both parties with 50 seats, but since the Vice President is the President of the Senate as outlined in the Constitution, Kamala Harris will cast the tie-breaking vote and give the majority to the Democrats, effectively allowing the Democrats to have a very slim majority and a trifecta in the government.

The full map of the 2020 Senate elections now looks like this with the election of two Democratic senators to the Senate from Georgia.

The elections of Ossoff and Warnock are quite significant. Ossoff will be the first Jewish senator from Georgia and the youngest senator, at 33, and more significantly, Warnock will be the first African American senator from Georgia and only the second Black senator from the former Confederacy since reconstruction (the other is Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.). He will also be the first Black Democrat to serve from the South. Georgia has a particularly large Black population (30 percent compared to the nation’s 12 percent), so it is particularly meaningful.

As of writing, Warnock’s race has been called by the Associated Press and most media, and he is expected to win by 1.9 percent and is currently leading by 1.0 percent. Ossoff’s race has not been called yet, but it is almost certain he is going to win and he is expected to win by about 1.1 percent and is currently leading by 0.4 percent. With votes still to be reported in the heavily Democratic Atlanta metropolitan area, there is no doubt that the two Democrats will be able to carry the state. The New York Times is rating the race as “very likely” for Ossoff and a greater than 95 percent chance of him winning.

[UPDATE – 4:20 p.m. Eastern Time]: Jon Ossoff’s race has been called by the Associated Press. The Democrats win the majority in the United States Senate.

The rise of the Democrats marks the end of a six-year dominance period by the Republicans on the Senate. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will no longer be the majority leader, and it is expected Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will become the majority leader of the Senate instead (Schumer is currently the minority leader).

Thanks to the work of Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia, who tried, but failed, to win the governorship in 2018, Georgia is now very much a winnable state for the Democrats. Despite losing, she mobilized and energized Black Georgian voters, who consist of over 30 percent of the state’s voter base, to come out in full force and vote, ultimately handing Democrats the victory. Black turnout allowed a number of rural counties, like Washington and Baldwin Counties, to flip from November, and solidified Democrats’ numbers in other Black-dominated rural counties like Macon and Calhoun Counties.

Many assumed that Biden’s narrow, 12,779 vote victory was due to backlash against Trump from voters. These two Senate races prove that the state is truly a battleground state going forward.

Another possible reason for the downfall of the GOP in the runoffs could be attributed to President Donald Trump’s loss and refusal to concede. Firstly, many Trump loyalists could have been disappointed at Trump’s loss, and thus chose not to come out and vote. By refusing to concede, Trump may have also turned off a number of moderate Republicans into voting for Loeffler and Perdue, since they tied themselves to Trump. Coupled with the fact that Trump lost the state, it does make sense that the Democrats won. However, AP VoteCast Exit Polls indicate that over three-fourths of people who voted for Perdue and Loeffler believes that Joe Biden did not legitimately win the November general election, and nine in 10 lacked confidence in the tabulation of votes in November.

These elections are a warning sign for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who won election narrowly over Stacey Abrams as governor in 2018 after receiving backing from Trump. With Trump refusing to endorse him (and even threatening to have him primaried) due to his refusal to baselessly claim Trump won the election, the Democrats may well have a good shot at claiming the governorship. Abrams is likely to run again, and with all the name recognition she garnered over these past years and the huge number of new voters she helped add onto the rolls, she might very well become the first Black woman to become a governor in American history.

Georgia is expected to finish counting all of its votes by noon Eastern Time today, which will coincide with Congress certifying electoral votes for President-Elect Joe Biden. Though a number of Republicans are expected to object, potentially causing hours of debate, Biden’s win will be certified in the end, and it will mark the real end of the 2020 election season, with Democrats sweeping into power in the White House and Senate and keeping it in the House.

Check out the 2020 election coverage page for more.