Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from the very Republican state of West Virginia, may seem to be one of the last, if only, conservative-esque, centrist Democrats left in Congress. He seems to oppose many Democratic priorities, such as on abortion, increasing the minimum wage, and gun control, and always tries to act in a bipartisan way. Lately, he voiced his opposition to passing the For the People Act, a large, sweeping Democrat-backed voting rights reformed package also known as H.R. 1 or S. 1. However, despite this, he isn’t nearly as conservative or as Republican-friendly as he may first seem.
Firstly, let’s discuss the role of Manchin in the current Senate. In an evenly divided Senate where the Democrats hold the slimmest of majorities possible, any legislation that is to pass on a party-line vote must have the support of all 50 Democratic senators. This includes everyone from progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont or Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, to moderates like Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. As one might expect from such an environment, that means that just one Democrat needs to oppose a party line bill in order to keep it from passing the Senate (assuming the bill has no Republican support). This is where Manchin comes in.
As one of the last members of the conservative Democratic wing left over from the pre-Obama era and from the time when West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state, Manchin has different views than most of his colleagues from his party in the Senate. For example, he is somewhat anti-abortion, though definitely not as extreme as many Republicans. He is against strict gun control and is definitely more fiscally conservative than other Democrats, but that is not to say he is completely illiberal, either.
Not only did Manchin vote to convict Trump twice in both his impeachment trials in 2020 and 2021, he also repeatedly voted against attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, voted against Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, and helped his party pass President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package known as the American Rescue Plan.
The reason why Manchin needs to keep his liberal views toned down is simple: he represents West Virginia, one of the most solidly Republican states. In the 2020 election, for instance, Donald Trump won the state by 39 percentage points, making it the second-most Republican state. Yet, since Manchin won a special Senate election in the state in 2010 by about 11 percentage points, won reelection in 2012 by an astounding 24 percentage points, and still managed to get reelected in 2018 by about 3 percentage points makes Manchin arguably one of the most amazing politicians of our era, at least electorally.
In an era of deep political polarization amid Donald Trump, Manchin was able to win over enough crossover support (multiple times, at that) to get reelected in a deep-red state that adores Trump.
Thus, we can see that Manchin’s conservatism means that he isn’t on par with everything the increasingly left-wing Democratic Party is aiming to do these days. One recent example is his steadfast refusal to abolish or substantially weaken the filibuster, and, in an op-ed published to the Charleston Gazette-Mail on Sunday, reiterated his opposition to H.R. 1, a piece of sweeping voting rights reform legislation that the Democratic Party has been pushing lately.
He argued that “partisan voting legislation will destroy the already weakening binds of our democracy” and that he wanted bipartisan support on voting rights legislation. As an alternative to H.R. 1, Manchin advocated for the passage of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, named after the late Rep. John Lewis. That bill is not quite as large and sweeping as H.R. 1, but it still contains substantial reforms to voting, including putting back sections of the Voting Rights Act that the Supreme Court struck down. This is because Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican from Alaska, supported the bill previously.
Now, what could bring Manchin to be against such an important bill that would arguably gut the power of many Republican voter-suppression bills passed in many state legislatures recently?
The reason is not hard to see if one digs deeper. Murkowski, who is a moderate Republican from a relatively red state (Alaska), needs voting rights legislation to be passed since it will greatly help her with her reelection bid. (Yes, Murkowski once won an election on a write-in campaign, but who wants to go through all that stress?) As does Manchin: in order for him to get reelected, he needs to ensure turnout is as high as possible in his deep-red state. Thus, we can see that both senators have a personal interest in seeing voting rights legislation get passed.
However, they need to be very careful with how they are working on getting this passed. If they pass H.R. 1, a very heavily broadcasted bill which has garnered substantial media attention, their opponents could easily accuse them of trying to “rig” their own election campaigns and could use the bill to seriously vilify the two candidates. Thus, an alternative method needs to be found.
By using the guise of bipartisanship and drumming loudly that he’s voting against voting rights legislation (look at how much news coverage that got Manchin), Manchin is able to use his “opposition” to his advantage in his reelection bid, as can Murkowski against a Trump-endorsed candidate.
It is probably fairly obvious that Manchin, as a member of the Democratic Party (he could have switched long, long ago if he really wanted to), would like to help his party win more elections and protect American democracy by passing voting reform legislation. However, he obviously does not want these provisions to pass under a bill titled “H.R. 1,” since that will essentially kill off his reelection bid entirely. By making a lot of noise against H.R. 1 now, then quietly revising other bills, like the John Lewis Voting Rights Act (or H.R. 4), by putting in a lot of the provisions that H.R. 1 has and voting for the new bill will allow him to campaign on the fact that he killed H.R. 1 while still having enacted a lot of H.R. 1’s provisions.
The guise of bipartisanship with Murkowski (the two senators have a longstanding friendship) allows the two senators to give each other cover of “bipartisan approval,” thereby helping greatly with their reelection campaigns while still allowing legislation to pass.
Remember that Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are not stupid. They are playing the long game — because so long as H.R. 1 is passed before 2022, it will be absolutely fine. Biden is a Senate veteran of over 35 years. It is only logical to see that there is virtually no way, along with Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, that they will be losing this crucial battle over the very soul of American democracy.