Vaccination Rates Highlight Red and Blue State Divide

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has started to gain a foothold in the U.S. recently. On Monday, 32,105 cases were reported across the U.S., representing a 94 percent increase over the past 14 days. The uptick in cases is mainly fueled by rising case levels in states with low COVID-19 vaccination rates, with Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana seeing particularly alarming outbreaks.

Since January, COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have been on a downward trend, with case levels dropping from a peak of almost 300,000 daily cases in mid-January all the way down to a low of around 11,000 daily cases in mid-June. However, since then, the number of cases has slowly been creeping upward, and the seven-day average for daily cases is now at 23,000 and rising.

The massive decline over the spring and early summer can be attributed to COVID-19 vaccinations. The mass vaccination drive started to take off in January, reaching a peak in mid-April with over 4 million doses administered per day, but with 55 percent of the population (65 percent if counting only those 12 and up — the eligible population) being at least partially vaccinated as of writing, vaccinations have slowed down significantly.

This meant that President Joe Biden’s goal of getting 70 percent of the U.S. adult population by July 4 was barely missed. As of writing, 20 states, along with Washington, D.C., Guam, and Puerto Rico, have at least partially vaccinated 70 percent of their population, while the remaining 30 states are yet to reach the 70 percent goal.

Vermont leads the entire country in vaccination rates, with 86 percent of the population aged above 18 having received at least one dose. Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are the three other states with more than 80 percent of the population being vaccinated.

There is a particularly worrying trend in the states that have reached the 70 percent goal and those who have not. Let us compare this map with an Electoral College map of the 2016 and 2020 elections.

The most striking comparisons between the two maps is that with the exception of Pennsylvania and Nevada, the vaccination rate map is exactly identical to the results of the 2016 presidential election — all the states (except Nevada) that voted for Hillary Clinton currently sit above 70 percent in first-dose vaccinations, while all the states (except Pennsylvania) that voted for Donald Trump sit below that threshold.

We also see that the 20 states with the lowest vaccination rates are pretty much all solid Republican states (with the exceptions of Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas — red-leaning swing states).

This is a particularly worrying trend to see, considering that the 10 states with the worst upbreaks (i.e., most cases per 100,000 people) are:

• Arkansas (27 cases per 100,000 people)
• Nevada (23)
• Louisiana (23)
• Missouri (22)
• Utah (18)
• Wyoming (17)
• Florida (16)
• Mississippi (13)
• Oklahoma (12)
• Kansas (12)

Except for Utah and Florida, all of these states are among the lowest in terms of vaccination rates. (Utah is 65 percent first-dose vaccinated, while Florida is 65.8 percent. They are 50.3 percent and 56.8 percent fully vaccinated respectively.)

There is no doubt that there is a clear correlation between COVID-19 outbreaks and low vaccination rates. It is therefore clear that getting more people vaccinated is beneficial to everyone, as it leads to fewer outbreaks, allowing life to return back to normal as soon as possible.

Unfortunately, the red state and blue state divide in vaccinations could not be clearer. As seen in the maps above, not only are practically all blue states at the top in terms of vaccination rates (the top 20 states for vaccinations all went for Biden), but practically all the states at the bottom in terms of vaccination rates are all red. This has now become one of the clearest dividers in determining a state’s vaccination rates.

In fact, a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll conducted in early May showed this divide: 82 percent of Democrats reported being vaccinated, while just 45 percent of Republicans said they were. (The numbers are almost identical to these in terms of people who voted for Biden versus those who voted for Trump.)

This is a particularly worrying trend, as pockets of outbreaks are now starting to occur in low-vaccination regions, such as rural Arkansas. Outbreaks are now starting to occur along party lines. It is clear that areas with high vaccination rates are averting any substantial outbreaks. In fact, reports have indicated that the vast majority of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all among the unvaccinated.

What could be causing such a divide in vaccination rates in blue states and red states? The answer is simple: the vaccine, along with COVID-19 as a whole, has been significantly downplayed and politicized by Republicans, while Republicans as a whole are just less likely to believe in governmental institutions (this could be a result of governmental support being worse in rural areas — where most Republicans live).

Of course, there are a percentage of people who are avoiding the vaccine due to legitimate health or religious reasons. But it is undeniable that a large percentage of those unvaccinated either believe that COVID-19 is a hoax or nonexistent, or refuse to believe the government which is asking them to take the vaccine.

To close the party-line vaccination gap, more Republican officials need to start endorsing the vaccine. For far too long have many elected Republicans been asking people to avoid taking the vaccine and downplaying the pandemic. Companies that produce the vaccine, such as Pfizer, Morderna, and Johnson & Johnson could also urge people to take the vaccine, since people who don’t trust the government might be more trusting in private companies instead.

But the problem is clear: almost everything in America is now political, including matters of public health and safety. There should be no reason why one living in a red state be more reluctant to take the vaccine — in fact, many red states sufferered major COVID-19 outbreaks despite being quite rural. Unfortunately, many Trump supporters in particular have seen not taking the vaccine as “rebuking the government” and using it as a point of pride and honor.

It is yet another reflection of how dangerous overly partisan politics can be. Democrats and Republicans alike need to get together and convince large swaths of the unwilling to take the vaccine, in order to get the U.S. back to normal and fully reopen again.