Redistricting: Which Party Is Ahead? (Dec 2021)

Forty-four states have already begun the decennial congressional redistricting process, with 20 states already enacting finalized House maps that will run through the next 10 years. That is 14 more than in the previous update (not including states with only one district). In this post, we’re going to take a look at how redistricting is going in each state and discuss which party is doing better.

Redistricting Overview

Of the 45 states that have more than one district and go through a redistricting process, 20 have approved maps. These states are Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia.

The outlook for Democrats is significantly better than it was 10 years ago, but Republicans still hold an edge. So far, Democrats have lost a little turf overall from the status quo, which could be decisive in the 2022 midterms considering the Democrats’ slim House majority.

However, a lot of the Republicans’ gains so far have been made from converting competitive districts (many of which they already hold) in red states into more solid ones. This is because these Republican states have already been gerrymandered in 2010 such that there is little more that can be gerrymandered without making it a “dummymander” (a map so gerrymandered that even minor population changes totally change up a district’s partisan composition).

All in all, Republicans are in control of redrawing seats in 20 states, equating to 187 seats, while Democrats can draw lines in 11 states, equating to 75 seats. Nineteen states with a total of 173 seats have split, bipartisan, or nonpartisan control over redistricting or only have one at-large district.

Alabama

Alabama, which has seven seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining six Republican-leaning seats and one Democratic-leaning seat.

However, as Alabama’s population is one-fourth Black, yet just one-seventh of the districts are majority-Black, a group of Democratic lawmakers, minority-rights advocacy groups including the NAACP, and a group of registered voters have filed a federal lawsuit alleging the Republican legislature of racial gerrymandering. Thus, it is possible for this map to change.

Alaska

Alaska has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Republican seat.

Arizona

Arizona‘s independent redistricting commission is still debating over how to draw the state’s nine districts. Currently, the state has three Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat held by a Democrat, and five Republican-leaning seats, one of which is also held by a Democrat.

The commission’s current proposal makes one of the three Democratic-leaning districts more competitive and makes the light-red district held by a Democrat much redder. This means that the current plan has two Democratic-leaning seats, two highly-competitive seats, and five Republican-leaning seats.

However, the map is still being debated, and it could still be changed before a final map is enacted.

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Arkansas

Though Republican lawmakers in Arkansas (which has four seats) have approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining four Republican-leaning seats, the governor has not signed the map into law and has indicated that he will not do so either. The attorney general has announced that this means the map becomes effective on Jan. 14, 2022.

The fight in Arkansas has been centered around how the new map “cracks” Little Rock, the state’s largest city and biggest Democratic and minority stronghold, across the state’s four different districts, diluting minority and Democratic voters.

The map is currently being challenged in court and an advocacy group has started a petition to put the current map in front of voters in a referendum. It will happen if the group, Arkansans for a Unified Natural State, can collect 54,000 signatures of registered voters across at least 15 counties across the state by January.

California

The commission in charge of redrawing California‘s 52 House seats (it lost a seat this year) has so far planned to eliminate a Democratic seat in its new Dec. 18 draft map.

The current map consists of 53 districts, seven of which lean Republican, two that are highly competitive, and the rest leaning Democratic. Eleven Republicans represent the state in Congress — one of the highly-competitive seats, as well as three Democratic-leaning seats, are held by Republicans.

This new map has 42 Democratic-leaning seats, three highly-competitive seats, and seven Republican-leaning seats.

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This map is great news for the Democratic Party. Most of the state’s Democratic incumbents get much safer districts, aside from Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard and Alan Lowenthal seats in lower California getting merged — but both are retiring. There will also be a head-on-head Democrat race in the Santa Clara Valley, as Reps. Anna Eshoo and Jimmy Panetta’s seats will be merged together to create a new, Democratic-leaning, majority-Hispanic seat.

On the Republican side, retiring Rep. Devin Nunes’s seat is redrawn into a D+16 seat. Reps. Tom McClintock, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel all get much bluer districts, but Reps. Young Kim and Darrell Issa get redder districts.

The light-red seat in western California (McClintock’s seat) might also get much bluer in the coming years due to population growth in the Lake Tahoe region.

All in all, this map adds five extra majority-Hispanic or Latino seats. Hispanics, therefore, become one of the biggest winners in this new map.

Colorado

Colorado was one of the first states to finish redistricting. The state got an extra seat, bringing its total to eight districts, but the independent redistricting commission chose to make that a highly-competitive seat that slightly leans Republican, so neither party gained or lost ground. There are four Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat, and three Republican-leaning seats.

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Connecticut

No maps have yet been proposed for Connecticut, which has five seats. A two-thirds majority in each house of the legislature is needed for maps to pass. As the legislature deadlocked, a bipartisan commission will redraw maps instead. The deadline is on Dec. 21, and if the commission does not submit a map by then, district lines will be drawn by the Connecticut Supreme Court.

The previous map had three Democratic-leaning seats and two highly competitive seats. All incumbents are Democrats.

Delaware

Delaware has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Democratic seat.

Florida

Florida Republicans are rife with disagreement over how to draw the state’s 28 districts after it gained one in reapportionment. The current map has eight Democratic-leaning districts, 14 Republican districts, and five highly-competitive districts (three held by Democrats and two by Republicans).

The state Senate’s proposals all keep the number of partisan-leaning seats the same, adding in a highly-competitive seat. The state House’s proposals all add one Republican-leaning seat.

The disagreements likely stem over how much gerrymandering would be considered too much for the Florida Supreme Court to accept and how extreme the lines could be before they would be too risky for the next decade.

Georgia

Republicans in Georgia, which has 14 districts, look poised to pass a map that eliminates a Democratic seat, merging Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath’s highly competitive seats in the Atlanta area into a new Democratic-leaning seat, while also making Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop’s majority-Black seat in southern Georgia more vulnerable.

The final tally on this map is a net gain of one seat for Republicans: four Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat, and nine Republican-leaning seats.

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Hawaii

Hawaii, which has two seats, has not yet enacted a map yet, but the bipartisan citizen redistricting committee has proposed a map that largely retains the status quo — two (very solidly) Democratic-leaning seats.

Idaho

Idaho, which has two seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining two (very solidly) Republican-leaning seats.

Illinois

Despite losing a congressional seat, Illinois‘s 17 seats remain the Democrats’ second-largest redistricting weapon after New York. The new map eliminates two Republican-leaning seats and makes the two Republican-leaning highly-competitive seats in the old map Democratic-leaning, though one still remains as highly competitive. This helps better the electoral prospects of Democratic Reps. Lauren Underwood in exurban Chicago and Cheri Bustos in western Illinois.

Moderate Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s suburban Chicago seat was merged into GOP Rep. Darin LaHood’s safely-Republican seat, which might have caused him to choose to retire. Meanwhile, GOP Reps. Mike Bost and Mary Miller are also in a head-to-head competition for a safely-Republican southern Illinois seat. GOP Rep. Rodney Davis’s electoral prospects are seriously endangered, with his Springfield-centered district going from R+8 to D+7. However, he could run in the neighboring ruby-red district.

The new map contains 13 Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat, and three Republican-leaning seats.

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Indiana

Indiana, which has nine seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining seven Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats. However, it makes a previously moderately-Republican leaning district into a solidly Republican one.

Iowa

On the surface, neither party has made significant gains in Iowa‘s newly-passed congressional map, which currently consists of four total seats: one solidly-Republican seat and three highly-competitive ones that lean Republican. One of these highly-competitive seats is held by Democrats (but up to three seats were held by Democrats after 2018’s blue wave election).

However, all of these seats have been made slightly redder in the new map, meaning that the GOP has gained slightly in this battleground state. The new map consists of two Republican-leaning seats (one of which moved from highly competitive to just slightly in the Republicans’ favor) and two highly-competitive seats.

Kansas

No map has yet been proposed in Kansas, which has four seats. Republicans are fully in charge of redistricting in Kansas as the party has the numbers in the legislature to override any potential vetoes from the Democratic governor. The deadline for a map is June 1, 2022.

The current map consists of three Republican-leaning seats all held by Republicans and one highly competitive seat held by a Democrat.

Kentucky

No map has yet been proposed in Kentucky, which has six seats. Republicans are fully in charge of redistricting in Kentucky as the party has the numbers in the legislature to override any potential vetoes from the Democratic governor. The deadline for a map is Jan. 7, 2022.

Despite the looming deadline, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has refused to call a special legislative session to discuss redistricting, as he says wants to see the proposed map before doing so to avoid taxpayer dollars being wasted on a map that might not stand up in court. There has been talk of Republicans choosing to draw a 6-0 Republican map, removing the state’s sole safe Democratic district and completely shutting out the Democrats.

Louisiana

No map has yet been proposed in Louisiana, which has six seats. Neither party controls the redistricting process new maps are proposed and passed by the Republican legislature and enacted by the Democratic governor. The deadline to pass a map is July 22, 2022.

The current map consists of five Republican-leaning seats and one Democratic-leaning one, with each party holding its respective seats.

Maine

Maine, which has two seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, except that it makes the one Republican-leaning seat slightly better for the Democrats (who already hold the seat). It retains one Republican-leaning seat and one Democratic-leaning seat.

Maryland

Maryland, which has eight seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining seven Democratic-leaning seats and one Republican-leaning seat, though the Republican seat has been made significantly less red — from a partisan lean of R+28 to just R+8.

Democrats, who fully control redistricting here, had the opportunity to draw a map that shuts Republicans out from all districts but chose not to.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts, which has nine seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining nine Democratic-leaning seats.

Michigan

Michigan‘s independent redistricting commission in charge of drawing lines for the state’s 13 districts (it lost a seat this year) is currently considering three separate maps. All maps eliminate two Republican seats, one of which is lost due to reapportionment. Two of the three maps make the extra GOP seat Democratic-leaning, while the other map makes it highly competitive.

The process in Michigan was unexpected for Democrats, who had expected to lose a seat. Instead, Democrats are looking to possibly gain a House seat from this battleground state.

Final maps from Michigan are expected by Dec. 30.

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Minnesota

Seven maps to redraw Minnesota‘s eight districts are under consideration, a state expected to head into its fourth consecutive round of having a court draw its maps. The state government here is divided — the state House and governorship are controlled by Democrats, while the state Senate is controlled by the GOP — making it difficult for a map to be agreed upon.

In anticipation of redistricting woes, the Minnesota Supreme Court has already assigned a five-judge panel to handle matters related to redistricting.

The maps under consideration all keep four Republican-leaning seats and three Democratic-leaning seats, with some maps making the last seat Democratic-leaning and others making it highly competitive.

Mississippi

Mississippi, which has four seats, has not yet approved a congressional map, but a map that features little change from the status quo has been proposed by the Republican state legislature. It retains three Republican-leaning seats and one Democratic-leaning seat.

Missouri

No map has yet been proposed in Missouri, which has eight seats. Republicans are fully in charge of redistricting in Missouri as the party has the numbers in the legislature to override any potential vetoes from the Democratic governor. The deadline for a map is Feb. 22, 2022.

The current map consists of six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats. Each party holds its respective seats.

Montana

Montana, which gained a seat this year, now has two seats, up from one solidly Republican at-large seat. The new map features two Republican-leaning seats, but one of them is only light red and could be competitive in a blue wave election.

Nebraska

Nebraska, which has three seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, except that it makes the one highly-competitive district slightly better for Republicans, who already hold the seat, by making it have a partisan lean of R+3, up from an even district. The map retains two Republican-leaning seats and one highly-competitive seat, currently held by Republicans.

Nevada

Nevada Democrats passed a map that “unpacks” its solidly-Democratic district centered around Las Vegas. The state, which has four seats, will now have one Democratic-leaning seat, two highly-competitive seats (which both favor Democrats), and one Republican-leaning seat.

This new map will help solidify the two incumbent Democrats currently in the two highly-competitive seats, as their districts lean Republican. It comes at the expense of Rep. Dina Titus’s seat, which has now been made significantly more competitive. The Republican-leaning seat has been made even more Republican.

Though this may seem a risky move, as it could theoretically allow Republicans to win all four of Nevada’s House seats in a red wave year, Democrats are betting on the fact that if Republicans perform well enough to do that, they will already have captured the House by a wide margin, and that extra seat won’t help much.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire Republicans, who fully control how the state’s two House seats’ lines are drawn, plan on changing the map from having two highly-competitive seats (both of which have Democratic incumbents) and creating a map with one Democratic-leaning seat and one Republican-leaning seat. The seats would move from D+2 to D+10 and R+1 to R+9 respectively.

Such a move would seriously endanger Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas’s seat. However, it is important to note that this is New Hampshire, where Republicans are much more liberal than national Republicans. Thus, whether or not this seat flips will highly depend on the Republican nominee.

New Jersey

No map has yet been proposed in New Jersey, which has 12 seats. Neither party controls redistricting — maps are drawn and set by a bipartisan commission. The deadline for a map is June 1, 2022.

The current map consists of six Democratic-leaning seats, three highly-competitive seats held by Democrats, and three Republican-leaning seats (one of which is held by a Democrat).

New Mexico

Like Nevada, New Mexico Democrats cracked up two solidly Democratic seats so that all three of the state’s districts would favor Democrats, if by a slim margin.

Under this map, there is one Democratic-leaning seat and two highly-competitive seats, both of which lean Democratic. It gravely endangers Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell’s seat in the southern part of the state, whose district moves from R+14 to D+4. The other two seats all get redder to compensate: the seat in northern New Mexico goes from D+14 to just D+5, while the seat centered around Albuquerque goes from D+18 to D+11.

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New York

The independent redistricting commission in New York (which lost a seat in this year’s redistricting process, bringing the state down to 26 seats) has released two proposed maps, but the commission is only advisory in nature and the Democratic legislature has the final say over redistricting in New York. It is therefore expected that none of the two maps will be final.

New York’s 26 seats are one of the Democrats’ biggest redistricting tools of this cycle (commissions in states such as California mean they can’t be gerrymandered in the Democrats’ favor). Thus, it is expected that New York Democrats could potentially enact a map that changes the map from 17 Democratic-leaning seats, three highly-competitive ones, and seven Republican-leaning seats into as brutal as a map with 23 Democratic-leaning seats and just three Republican-leaning seats.

North Carolina

Like clockwork, lawsuits are ongoing in North Carolina (which has 14 districts after gaining one this year) alleging the Republican-passed map of being an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander and a racial gerrymander depriving Blacks of a majority seat.

Despite the state being almost equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, the new map has just three Democratic-leaning seats (a reduction of two seats), one highly-competitive seat, and 10 Republican-leaning seats. This is accomplished by making Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s seat much more competitive, going from D+7 to D+1, and merging Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning’s D+21 seat in Greensboro into a safely Republican, R+16 seat. It is a net gain of two seats for Republicans.

Because of the lawsuits, which have pushed the deadline for candidate filing back by two months, however, a new set of lines may be drawn. Thus, this map may still be changed despite already having been finalized by the legislature.

North Dakota

North Dakota has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Republican seat.

Ohio

Because the Ohio legislature failed to agree on a map for Ohio’s 15 districts (it lost a district) with a bipartisan majority, the current map passed by Republicans will only last four years, though that will likely benefit Republicans as it will allow them to adjust the map. This map further gerrymanders an already gerrymandered map to be even more biased toward the Republicans by jeopardizing the electoral prospects of Democratic Reps. Tim Ryan and Marcy Kaptur, who now have to run in significantly redder districts.

The new map consists of 11 Republican-leaning seats, two highly-competitive seats, and just two Democratic-leaning seats. However, former Ohio Attorney General Eric Holder has filed a state lawsuit alleging the new map violates provisions that guarantee partisan fairness in the state constitution, so the map might be redrawn sooner than 2024.

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Oklahoma

In Oklahoma, which has five seats, Republicans passed a map that makes a previously moderately red district centered around Oklahoma City much redder, shutting out the Democrats of any possibility of contesting any seat in the state. The new map has five Republican-leaning seats.

Oregon

Despite previously making a power-sharing deal with Republicans to redraw Oregon‘s six districts after the state gained a district in redistricting, in a power play, Oregon Democrats rammed a map through that converts a two-Democrat, two-highly-competitive, one-Republican seat map into a map with four Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat (which slightly favors Democrats), and one Republican-leaning seat.

This map shores up Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio’s seat, with his district moving from R+1 to D+9. Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader could choose to run in his highly-competitive home district, or in the newly-formed D+7 district.

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This map helps to slightly shore up the Democrats’ margins in the House, as it increases the number of Democrat-favored seats by two.

Pennsylvania

Though Pennsylvania House Republicans have released a draft map that keeps much of the state’s 17 districts (the state lost one seat this cycle) the same, except that it removes a Democratic-leaning district, this map is highly unlikely to become law. The Senate, which is Republican-controlled, is expected to release a competing proposal soon, and the Republican legislature needs to pass a map that Democratic Gov. Tim Wolf signs before it can become law. Thus, any proposed map will face a tough uphill battle. The redistricting deadline is Feb. 15, 2022.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island, which has two seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, retaining two Democratic-leaning seats.

South Carolina

In South Carolina, which has seven seats, Republicans in the House and Senate have released competing proposals: all keep partisan control of the seats the same, at six Republican-leaning seats and one Democratic-leaning seat, but the House proposal makes a light-red seat centered around the coast and Charleston slightly bluer, while the Senate proposal makes that seat redder.

South Dakota

South Dakota has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Republican seat.

Tennessee

The only map so far proposed in Tennessee, which has nine seats, is one by Tennessee Democrats that retains the status quo of seven Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats, centered around Memphis and Nashville.

However, state Republicans, who are fully in control of redistricting, have not yet proposed a map, and it is possible they may choose to break up one or both of the cities to increase the number of Republican districts. The deadline for a map to be set is April 7, 2022.

Texas

Texas Republicans opted for a map that overwhelmingly protects incumbents rather than expanding their turf in this fast-growing state with 38 districts — two more than in the last round of reapportionment.

The final map consists of 13 Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat, and 24 Republican-leaning seats. Overall, there were two new Republican-leaning seats (from the extra seats the state gained in reapportionment), and five highly-competitive districts which Democrats held were made Democratic-leaning. Eight previously light-red seats held by Republicans were made ruby-red in a bid to protect them.

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This was accomplished by moving the bluest parts of Houston, Dallas, and Austin into new, uber-blue seats and giving these to Democrats so that the bluest precincts of those light-red districts would be located in the new seats.

Making these light-red seats ruby-red is greatly advantageous for the GOP, as it prevents Democrats from ever contesting those seats. As a result, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans — the median seat is 12 points more Republican than the state as a whole, and it has an efficiency gap of 15.3% (a measure of gerrymandering).

Utah

Utah, which has four seats, has approved a congressional map that features little change from the status quo, except that it makes one moderately Republican-leaning seat much safer for the Republicans, retaining four Republican-leaning seats. The new map essentially nullifies the chance of a Democrat ever becoming competitive in any of the state’s districts.

This map was enacted by the Republican state legislature, which also essentially nullified a passed ballot initiative that would require redistricting to be done by an independent commission, which proposed three maps that would all make that light-red seat a blue seat centered around Salt Lake City.

Democrats have decried the map as a blatant example of gerrymandering and the group that proposed the aforementioned ballot measure is also planning another initiative that would repeal this map.

Vermont

Vermont has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Democratic seat.

Virginia

The Supreme Court of Virginia is currently handling redistricting after a bipartisan commission failed to agree on a proposal on how to draw lines for the state’s 11 districts.

The proposal keeps the partisan balance of maps the same (five each of Democratic- and Republican-leaning seats and a highly-competitive seat) but draws a new minority-majority district, putting Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in jeopardy as she now needs to run in an R+16 district against the incumbent GOP Rep. Robert Wittman. This map, however, is still subject to change.

Washington

The independent redistricting commission in Washington state missed a Nov. 15 deadline to draw a map for the state’s 10 districts, allowing the responsibility to fall to the state Supreme Court. However, the commission voted to adopt a map 13 minutes after the deadline, which featured little change from the old map. The court has decided to adopt that version of the map, and the state legislature will have 30 days to review and enact the new map after the next session begins on Jan. 10, 2022.

This map retains six Democratic-leaning seats, one highly-competitive seat, and three Republican-leaning seats.

West Virginia

West Virginia is down to two seats after it lost a seat in this year’s redistricting cycle. All of its districts are solidly Republican, so this change is a loss to Republicans. The new map features two (very solidly) Republican-leaning seats.

Wisconsin

Already one of the most-gerrymandered states in the nation, with Republicans winning six of eight congressional seats despite barely breaking 50% in presidential popular votes, Wisconsin is likely to have a map that remains fairly similar to its current one: six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats.

Part of the problem is that Democratic voters are largely concentrated in two cities — Milwaukee and Madison — and this makes it is very difficult to draw a fair map without severely cracking apart the two safe-blue districts centered around the two cities. This would require oddly-shaped lines and breaking up municipalities.

Despite Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoing the map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature previously and redistricting falling to the state Supreme Court, both Republicans and the governor have submitted plans that would hardly change the current lines. This is in part because the court announced that partisanship would be ignored in the new map and would opt for a map as similar as possible to the old maps. However, this could still change, and a map only needs to be finalized by April 15, 2022, giving all parties plenty of time.

Wyoming

Wyoming has just one at-large district and does not go through redistricting. It is a safe Republican seat.