A slew of new polls conducted by a large number of pollsters shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden having major leads over incumbent Republican President Donald Trump in virtually every swing state.
In almost a dozen polls released by the New York Times (A+ rated pollster by FiveThirtyEight), Fox News (A-), CNBC (A-), and others show Biden leading by huge margins in most states. Here is the raw data from each pollster for each state from poll results released on June 25:
And here are all poll average composites for each swing state compiled by FiveThirtyEight (As of 5:20 p.m. Eastern on June 24, 2020):
These polls are very telling for many reasons. First off, it is clear that a lot of states that Trump won in 2016 (like Mich., Wis., Fla., Pa., Ariz., and Ohio) have now very clearly flipped over to the Democratic Party. Although polling data is not 100% accurate, the aforementioned pollsters are A (or above) rated pollsters. These have been very accurate in the past, and only four states have been inaccurately predicted in the 2016 election, and all but Wisconsin have been within the polling error margin. (Wisconsin was off by about 7%, but a 7% shift now still puts it firmly into the Democratic camp.)
Based on the latest polling data, we can now create a more accurate Electoral College map. Note that the map is based on polling data (it is unlikely that Biden will win Florida by such a large margin) and guaranteed states (e.g. California has no polls, but it is definitely going to vote Democrat) alone.
Tossup states are the states that, based on the polling data, do not show a clear enough lead to group it into either category. They fall too close to the error margin.
Because the margins are so large in states like Colorado, New Mexico, Maine, and Virginia, it is sufficient to group them into the “safe” category already simply because even if the polls were off by a large margin, they would still probably be voting Democrat.
Another very telling thing is that states like Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, both states won by Donald Trump in 2016, are now very likely going to vote Democrat.
Even states like Arizona and North Carolina—states that even Obama failed to win in 2012—are showing leads for the Biden campaign over the Trump campaign.
And Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, formerly Republican strongholds, are not showing as big a lead for Trump compared to previous election years.
The map above is already a more conservative estimate. Consider that numerous pollsters have previously also been able to show leads for Biden in Ohio and Iowa. And one poll by Quinnipiac University at the start of the month shows that Biden is seeing a one-point lead over Trump in Texas. Should Texas go to Bide, it would be the largest Electoral College vote victory since George H. W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988 with 426 Electoral College votes.
What is so surprising is that America has become a way more polarized society than it ever was. For example, more people than ever are saying that they would be disappointed if their children dated a person of the opposing political view than themselves. And a growing percentage of people are saying that they would not consider a partnership with an opposing political view of their own. Because of this, landslide victories should not be a common sight. It would be shocking if Biden managed to win by such a large majority.
This year’s election is turning out to be very interesting. Stay tuned for more updates in the future. Make sure to subscribe.