Since the last presidential race update post almost three weeks ago, there have been many changes and updates regarding this November’s presidential elections. Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight has release its official forecast, mail-in voting is in limbo after attacks by the Trump Administration on the USPS, and lots, lots more.
The first thing to talk about is FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast model, which was released on August 12. As of writing, the model is giving Joe Biden a 73% chance of winning and Donald Trump, 27%. FiveThirtyEight is often the most conservative in their rankings—when some models predicted a 90% or more chance of Hillary Clinton winning in 2016, FiveThirtyEight only gave her a 70% chance of winning. FiveThirtyEight analyst Nate Silver has stated that it is still too early to rule out the possibility of Donald Trump winning.
This prediction is notable because it is very similar to Hillary Clinton’s numbers back in 2016. However, it is important to know that most models and pollsters will have corrected their errors from 2016 and adjusted them accordingly. (The model is based on polling data and voting trends and demographics.) Below are all the states ranked from most Republican to most Democratic, with the most hotly contested swing states (Texas, Iowa, ME-2, Ga., Ohio, N.C., NE-2, Ariz., Fla., Pa., Minn., Wis., Nev., N.H., and Mich.). The colors of each state are FiveThirtyEight’s prediction of how each state will vote.
There are a number of takeaways from this chart. The first takeaway is that Michigan, Maine, Colorado, and Virginia are basically no longer considered competitive. If Michigan, a state that went for Donald Trump in 2016, is considered safer than Nevada, a state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, then that basically puts it out of swing state territory. Here are the predictions in map form (>85% safe, >70% likely, >60% lean, >50% tilt):
These predictions line up very closely with my predictions, except that I classified Arizona, North Carolina, and Nebraska’s Second District as lean rather than tilt.
The next issue to discuss is mail-in voting. With President Trump’s sabotages on the U.S. Postal Service, mail-in voting will likely be significantly affected. In fact, the USPS has already told most states that they will be affected in their ability to handle large amounts of mail ballots. Assuming that lots of mail-in ballots go uncounted in November, that could swing the election in favor of Donald Trump and the Republicans, because voters who vote in-person are those who believe the pandemic to not be severe (likely to be Republican) and elderly voters (a solid group of Republican voters). I am watching the situation regarding the USPS very closely and examining all developments.
With that all said, here is my prediction as of this post. This prediction assumes mail-in voting will be conducted and there will be no undercount of mail ballots. My predictions take into account voting trends, voter demographics, polls, COVID-19, and region. Margins are taken into account (>15% safe, >5% likely, >1% lean, and 0-1% tilt).
Poll data is showing Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico no longer being remotely competitive for the Republicans, and likely margins are being shown throughout the Rust Belt, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine (at-large). In addition, considering Arizona and North Carolina’s gradual leftward shift, they will probably vote Democratic in this year’s elections.
A state to pay close attention to is Utah. Though it is a solidly Republican state, data has shown that Trump is not a favorite in the state. In fact, in 2016, over 20% of Utahn voters cast votes to a third-party candidate, leaving Donald Trump with just 40% of the vote in the state. Add to the fact that Utah’s extremely popular former governor and current Republican senator Mitt Romney is refusing to endorse President Trump for reelection, and the margins in Utah may be way, way closer than anyone can possibly imagine. (Although I do not in any way believe Joe Biden could win the state, at least at this point in time.)