Texas: a state in the deep South, once part of the Confederacy, and has been staunchly Republican since Jimmy Carter’s election of 1976, is now in play for the Democrats in the 2020 election. The state has 38 Electoral votes, second only to California, is now considered a swing state and is one of the first times it has been in play in recent years. Let’s discuss the politics of the Lone Star State and see what it would take for Joe Biden to carry the state this year.
The main cities of Texas—namely Austin, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and El Paso—have always generally been somewhat favorable to the Democrats. In Texas, mainly Republican suburban voters give the Republican Party the edge. However, this has been changing in recent years. Although Republican Senator Ted Cruz was reelected in the 2018 midterms, his race was a very close one. He is now warning the GOP that Texas is very much in play for this year’s election.
One of the main reasons for this shift is of course demographics. Houston, Dallas, and Austin are among the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. Urbanization generally brings more young Democrats to the state, and, with Austin’s development into a technological hub, is likely to continue the blueward shift. In general, more urbanization means more votes for the Democrats. (A similar story can be said for Arizona, where Phoenix is the fastest-growing American city, making the state trend bluer.)
However, a larger reason is probably due to resentment against President Trump and the GOP in general over issues like the COVID-19 pandemic. Texas has arguably handled the pandemic very badly, with Houston becoming one of the most hard-hit cities in the nation. Considering it still hasn’t accepted the Medicaid expansion (even Oklahoma, its staunchly conservative neighbor, recently voted to adopt the Medicaid expansion), along with its high population means that many are unable to afford good-quality health care.
Because of this, Joe Biden has dramatically ramped up the number of staff members working in Texas recently. It is insane to think that the state, which voted for McCain over Obama in 2008 by a 12-point margin, actually has a decent shot to be won by a Democrat this year.
The polling data agrees with these trends, too. As of writing, Biden is currently leading by 0.2 points over Trump. That is arguably very small and within the margin of error, but we must consider 2016’s results.
In 2016, at around this time, Trump had a 95% chance of winning Texas. In addition, all the polls showed Trump leading anywhere between 4 and 13 points (average 12 points), with Trump eventually winning the state with a nine-point lead, representing a three-point swing in favor of Clinton. This meant that the state was not competitive in 2016. The charts below show the statistics from the 2016 election prediction by FiveThirtyEight.
Clinton had never seen a lead in the state of Texas at all throughout the entire campaign season. Therefore, for Biden to be leading in the state overall, it is very major.
However, the chances of Biden actually winning the state are not too great. Generally, most forecasters show a two-thirds chance of Trump carrying the state, with about a one-third chance of Biden carrying the state. The chances are still too small for Texas to be characterized, but, these percentages have decreased for Trump significantly over time. Not too long ago, before the pandemic’s “second wave” and the protest movement, there was about an 80% chance that Trump would win the state. PredictIt betting odds show similar trends too, with the price bet for Trump winning right now at 68 cents.
With this year being a presidential year and Democrats seeing it as a referendum against Donald Trump and the GOP, as well as America becoming extremely polarized, turnout on both sides will definitely be quite high. All eyes will certainly be on Texas as it shapes up to be one of the most interesting races of the year.
Good read!
Thanks!