In today’s post, we are going to take a deeper look at the 2020 Presidential electoral map based on FiveThirtyEight weighted polling data, as well as RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages and a few other compilers. Note that this isn’t a prediction, but rather a discussion of the data available.
For polling, the margins are >15% safe, >5% likely, >1% lean, and 0-1% tilt. We will apply the 2016 result to any state that does not have at least three polls. (Three is the minimum to account for bias in pollsters and averages.)
Some people like to complain that polls were incorrect in 2016. However, they really were. First of all, Hillary Clinton, did, in fact, win the popular vote. The polls predicted that correctly. In states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump’s winning margins were well within the polls’ margin of error. The only incorrect state was Wisconsin. That is just one out of 51 voting states and districts. In addition, they were pretty accurate in the 2018 midterms and this year’s primaries. Most pollsters would have adjusted for the mistakes in 2016, too. As a result, polls are, all-in-all, a pretty accurate depiction of the nation’s political scene.
Let’s first color in all the safe states. These are pretty much the same as any other electoral map.
There aren’t too many surprises here, except for the fact that Trump is noticeably behind Biden by over 120 votes. This is because Trump really isn’t doing too well in the polls this year, even in some staunchly Republican states. And also, margins in 2016 were very slim, too.
Biden gets the Northeast and the West Coast, as well as Illinois. Based on polls, Trump is only leading by over 15 percent in a handful of extremely Republican states, such as Idaho, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and so on. In addition, some of these states, like Arkansas and Louisiana, were classified as such due to a lack of polling data.
Let’s now take a look at the likely states, of which there are quite a lot.
Here, more states that we may classify as safe appear here. Surprisingly, the Rust Belt states of Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin appear, which is bad news for Trump. The consensus right now is that even if Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina go to Trump, he will still have to win at least Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to secure a narrow victory. Pennsylvania has moved back into the likely column due to new Marist College (A+ rated pollster) polls showing Biden leading by eight to nine points.
The rest of the states aren’t too surprising. Though Indiana, Montana, Mississippi, Missouri, Utah, Kansas, and South Carolina are expected to go to Trump, they are not expected to go by solid margins. South Carolina has been getting closer, and Trump is now only up by around six points there. Utah will be an interesting one to keep watch of, because of a large third party vote share there in 2016.
It is expected for New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico to go to Biden, so those aren’t too surprising. In the latter three states, Biden is even leading by double digit margins.
In Arizona, a state that went blue in the 2018 midterms and a hotly contested swing state this year, Biden is leading by 5.2 points here, enough to put it into the likely category. Trump’s comments on John McCain and the military have probably hurt him in the state. In fact, the Trump campaign has pulled ads out of here just before the Labor Day weekend. Ever since Biden took over Trump’s lead in March, it has stayed fairly consistent since then, with Biden only expanding his lead since.
Alaska is surprisingly not a likely state. By polling margins, it is lean only.
Let’s now shift our focus to the more competitive lean states. There are 158 lean votes.
The states in this category are Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine’s Second District, Nebraska’s Second District, and North Carolina. These are some of the most hotly contested swing states of this election. For a more in-depth analysis of swing states, click here.
For Alaska, there have only been three polls from two different pollsters, too few for FiveThirtyEight to come up with a weighted average. The average is Trump +3.3.
In Florida, the averages have moved slightly in favor of Trump due to a few new polls coming out from Marist College, an A+ pollster, showing the race tightening. Biden is leading by 2.7 points, which shows that the race in Florida has dramatically tightened up. However, Florida is always very close, and this is to be expected anyway. This will definitely be one to watch closely.
In Georgia, a state that is trending blue, Trump is still the favorite to win it according to the polls. Trump is ahead by 1.5 points, but the race is really close, with both candidates neck-and-neck.
In Iowa, a state that swung by a huge percentage to Trump in 2016, Biden and Trump are neck-and-neck, with Trump being slightly favored at +1.6 points. Interestingly, no candidate for the longest of times has won without Iowa and Ohio, so it will again be interesting to see how this plays out. There is also a larger percentage of undecided voters in this state, almost 10 percent.
Maine’s Second District and Nebraska’s Second District don’t have a FiveThirtyEight average either due to a lack of polling data. However, averaging out the available polls, Biden leads by lean margins in both states.
North Carolina, one of the closest races this year, and one that I classified tilt in my presidential prediction, is showing a slight edge for Biden, with him leading by 1.6 points. This race is sure to narrow up and FiveThirtyEight is estimating the state going to Biden by a margin of 0.4 points.
There are now just two tilt states left: Texas and Ohio.
Texas, surprisingly, is one of the closest states when it comes to polling this year, and that is especially notable since it hasn’t voted Democratic since 1976. The fact that it is so competitive this year is very bad news for the Trump campaign. If he loses Texas, there is virtually no chance that he can win this election. The state just barely makes it into the tilt characterization, with Trump leading by 0.8 points.
Ohio was once the biggest swing state but it seems like it is getting more and more Republican. In fact, this year could mark the end of the great Ohio Bellwether, in which Ohio has voted with the national winner since 1964. Similarly to how Missouri stopped becoming a bellwether in 2008, Ohio may be next to lose its status. Trump is leading by a tilt margin of 0.9 points in the state.
As polling data is constantly changing, some of these averages may have shifted since I wrote this post, although it shouldn’t be by too significant margins. It will be extremely interesting to see how well these averages hold up on election day: how far off will the polls be this year? Only time can tell.
Make sure to also check out my Presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial election predictions for early September too, and subscribe to receive email updates.
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Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing. Polling averages are based on the FiveThirtyEight average, and their website provides the most up-to-date information.