Due to the Electoral College system, many people that live in safe states do not get their voices heard on the presidential level. For instance, a Republican in California or a Democrat in Mississippi are not represented in the Electoral College, because those states are safe for the Democratic and Republican parties respectively. This basically means that a handful of states decide the election. Let’s take a look at them in this post.
The map below shows all the safe states and swing states for this election. (Margins are ignored for this map.) I will explain why some states are classified as “no longer swing states” later on in the post. As seen, the Democrats have 199 “safe” votes to start off with, while the Republicans have 125 “safe” votes to start off with. We will discuss the swing states roughly in order of competitiveness.
Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia
The first thing to note is that all of these states are no longer classified as swing states, highlighted in purple color. The reason for this is because these states have basically moved out of swing state territory and into Democratic territory. All of these states went to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and with the exception of New Hampshire, by fairly large margins too. It would, now, be almost inconceivable for a Republican to win in these states.
In all of these states, polls have shown strong leads for Joe Biden: +13.9 in Colorado, +7.4 in Nevada, +8.7 in New Hampshire, +13 in New Mexico, and +11.6 in Virginia. (In fact, New Mexico is now considered so un-swingy that there have only been two polls released so far.) There is virtually no way that Donald Trump will be even remotely competitive in any of these states as of right now.
Minnesota
Minnesota is also considered by some to be a swing state, but due to it voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and it not traditionally being considered a swing state, it seems like it will remain blue in 2020. In addition, due to Minnesota being the home ground of this year’s Black Lives Matter protest movement, it seems exceedingly likely that it is not a swing state, at least for this year’s election.
There have been no good polls conducted in the state as of writing.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
In a shocking turn of events, these Rust Belt states voted for Donald Trump in 2016, the first time since 1988 any of these states have gone to a Republican candidate. Trump won each of these states by margins of less than one percent (0.23% in Michigan, 0.72% in Pennsylvania, and 0.77% in Wisconsin). Considering Trump’s unpopularity with Americans, it seems virtually impossible that he would be able to main these narrow margins he won by in 2016, and the polls show that: Biden is leading by 6.9%, 5.4%, and 5.9% respectively. In addition, Trump has already given up on Michigan. Therefore, the chances he will win in any one of these is quite low.
Texas
This election cycle is the first in over 40 years that Texas is competitive, having been last won by a Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976. Due to rapid population growth in urban centers like Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas, Texas is slowly, but surely, moving into swing state territory. Compared to 2012’s 15-point margin for Mitt Romney, the state only went to Donald Trump by 9% in 2016, a six-point swing. Although it is expected to go to Donald Trump this year (albeit by a narrow margin), make no mistake—the state is absolutely in play this year.
Polls show Donald Trump leading by 1.3% here, within the margin of error. Check out my in-depth analysis of whether Texas can flip blue this year here.
Arizona
Arizona has voted Republican for over two decades now, so it may be surprising to some people that it is on this list. However, it is absolutely a swing state this year. Arizona’s population has grown very quickly recently, and Phoenix is now the fastest-growing city in America. Changes in demographics mean that Arizona is now favored to go to the Democrats, for the first time since 1996.
Arizona’s leftward trend can be seen in recent elections: in 2016, a Republican wave year, Arizona went to Trump by just 3.55%, a significant drop compared to 2012’s margin of 9.06% to Mitt Romney. Polls are showing Joe Biden leading in the state by about 4%. Many predictions, like the JHK forecast and the FiveThirtyEight forecast, all predict Arizona going to Joe Biden.
Iowa
Iowa has been a swing state for the longest of times, but it seems to be gradually moving out of swing state territory. It has become increasingly Republican in recent years, owing to a losing population like the rest of the Rust Belt. In 2016, it voted for Donald Trump by 9.41%, a 15-point swing compared to 2012. Iowa does, however, have a history of big swings, so it does have every possibility of swinging back this year. In 2018, three out of its four districts also voted for Democratic representatives. Both of its Senators are Republican. Iowa’s Senate race this year is considered extremely competitive, with the Democratic candidate Theresa Greenfield even leading in polls.
Polls show Donald Trump leading in Iowa by a margin of 1.3%, well within polls’ margins of error.
Ohio
The nation’s premier bellwether may lose its status this year (it has voted correctly with the nationwide winner since 1964). Like Iowa (and Missouri), a declining population has made the state more Republican and conservative over time. In 2016, it voted for Donald Trump by an eight-point margin, compared to 2012, when it voted for Barack Obama by a three-point margin, an 11-point swing. Unfortunately, this year may mark the first time since 1964 Ohio gets the election winner wrong.
Polls show Donald Trump leading in the state by 0.6%, well within the margin of error.
Maine’s Second Congressional District
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states which award electoral votes proportionally: two for the statewide winner and one each for its congressional districts. This makes individual districts in the states competitive even though they may not be at-large.
Maine’s second district is definitely competitive. In 2016, for the first time since Maine awarded electoral votes in this method, the second district went to Trump by over ten percent, a swing of over 18%. This is a huge swing and has led many to believe that it may still go to Donald Trump this year. Forecasters are divided on this one: though most rate it as “tossup,” some have rated it as lean R or lean D. Compared to the rest of the state, this district is rural, so leans way more conservative than the first district.
There have also been very few polls (3 only, the average is a 1.5% lead for Joe Biden). It will definitely be very difficult to call, but since it’s only worth one electoral vote, it isn’t too important in the big picture.
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District
Similar to Maine, Nebraska’s second congressional district is also considered competitive. Having voted Democratic only once (2008) since Nebraska started divvying up electoral votes in this method, it is projected to go to Joe Biden by quite a number of pollsters. This district encompasses the city of Omaha, making it more liberal than any other part of the state (Nebraska’s third district is the most conservative-leaning voting body in the country, even more so than Wyoming). The only two polls that have come out of the district show Joe Biden leading by an average of nine points, though none of them are particularly good polls.
Florida
The classic swing state, Florida has always seemed to swing by a knife’s edge every election. Exceedingly difficult to classify, its margins are often extremely narrow. It was the deciding state in the election of 2000, which had to be decided by the Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore. It is also arguably one of the most important swing states as it has 29 electoral votes, the third most in the country along with New York (only California and Texas have more). It should be a Democratic state due to many young people living there, but due to a large amount of senior retirees moving there, the state leans Republican, having elected a Republican governor and senators.
Polling data is showing a commanding lead for Joe Biden here: he is currently leading by 5.2%. It is important to note, however, that polls quite often overestimate Democrats in this state.
North Carolina
Another recent-year swing state that last went blue in 2008, North Carolina is a highly competitive state this year. Its urban centers such as Raleigh, Durham, and Greensboro have all grown quickly and will gain a seat after the census too. In 2016, the state voted for Trump by a margin of 3.66%, similar compared to 2012’s margin of 2.04%. Joe Biden has a slight edge here based on polling data (he is up 1.5%), but every single forecaster has it listed as a tossup. JHK and The Economist give Biden the slightest edge, while FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a tiny edge. This will be a very difficult state to call, too.
Georgia
Similar to Texas, Georgia has become a swing state as of this election cycle, yet, it is way more likely for Georgia to flip than Texas. Its largest city, Atlanta, is also growing very fast, bringing a liberal youth to this traditionally conservative state. It last went blue in 1992. In 2016, Trump won by a margin of 5.13%, compared to 2012’s margin of 7.82%. Though it is expected to go to Donald Trump, Biden’s chances of winning here are not bad, either.
Polls show Trump leading Biden by 0.7%, very much within the margin of error. All forecasters have Georgia at either a tossup or tilt/lean R.
Honorable Mention
Utah is a very interesting state politically. Although it has solidly voted Republican since 1964, 2016 and 2020 are very interesting years, at least electorally, for the state. Because of popular Utahn Republican Senator (and former governor) Mitt Romney’s refusal to endorse Donald Trump for president and the state’s Mormon demographic resulting in people not liking Trump, a third-party candidate, Evan McMullin, actually got more than 20% of the vote here in 2016. This resulted in Trump only getting 45.5% of the vote here, way less than when Mitt Romney ran for president in 2012 and getting 72.8% of the vote. Though I am not saying the state is competitive in any way for Republicans, it will be interesting to see how the state votes in 2020. Will Utahn voters unwillingly vote for Donald Trump? Only time will tell.
In conclusion, the fate of the election lies in the hands of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. So, if you live in any of these states, make sure to go vote. Unlike the rest of the country, your votes actually count. So make good use of it. Your vote matters.