Glenn Youngkin Wins Virginia GOP Primary for Governor

After a grueling weekend of vote tabulation of ranked-choice voting, the results of the Virginia Republican Party gubernatorial primary held on May 8 were released, indicating that Glenn Youngkin, a former CEO and businessman, had won the party’s nomination to run in the Virginia gubernatorial election this November. The results indicated that once again, the Republican Party had chosen to embrace the pro-Trump strategy.

Virginia is one of two states (the other being New Jersey) that holds off-year gubernatorial elections in the year immediately following a presidential election year. (There will also be a special gubernatorial recall election in California due to the recall effort of Gov. Gavin Newsom succeeding there.)

Virginia is a state that has been trending bluer and bluer. It first voted for a Democrat, Barack Obama, in 2008 after voting Republican consistently after Lyndon B. Johnson won the state in 1964. And ever since, the state hasn’t looked back from the Democratic Party. As of writing, all statewide offices and bodies are controlled by Democrats, after the Democrats successfully flipped the state legislature in the 2019 elections. The state has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, mostly Democratic representatives, and a Democratic attorney general. Republicans have lost 13 consecutive statewide races in a state that was once a solid Republican stronghold.

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won the state by an astounding margin of 10.1 percent, making him the best-performing Democratic presidential candidate in this state since Franklin D. Roosevelt won in 1944. Previously, the state voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 by single-digit margins.

Shifting our attention back to the gubernatorial election, on Saturday, the state’s Republican Party held a non-state-sponsored primary election, which was conducted via ranked-choice voting. The decision came after a monthslong debate over whether to hold a closed convention or a primary, and they eventually settled on the latter after deciding that it will attract more voters. However, this primary took the form of a “disassembled convention,” meaning that the only people voting here are delegates who have already been vetted.

Though it seems that the writing seems to be on the wall for the Virginia GOP, just because the state is getting bluer and bluer does not mean that a Republican cannot win. In 2009, right after the state had flipped for the first time in over 40 years, the state voted for Republican Bob McDonnell to become governor by double digits.

Now, clearly, things have changed a lot since then, and demographic changes in the Northern Virginia area (Washington, D.C. suburbs), Richmond, and the Norfolk-Virginia Beach area have pushed the state further and further to the left, especially with the presence of Donald Trump.

In fact, the embracement of Donald Trump might just be the factor which will doom the Republicans in this race. The state as a whole repudiated Trump by over 10 points, indicating that the state generally dislikes Trump. Yet, in order to appease the Republican base, all of the Republicans who ran for the nomination tried to make themselves as “Trumpy” as possible.

As The New York Times put it: “One candidate brands himself a ‘conservative outlaw.’ Another boasts of her bipartisan censure by the State Senate for calling the Capitol rioters ‘patriots.’ A third, asked about Dominion voting machines — the subject of egregious conspiracy theories on the right — called them ‘the most important issue’ of the campaign,” demonstrating the candidates’ clear embrace of the former president.

The person who eventually prevailed was Glenn Youngkin, a wealthy newcomer to politics and a former CEO. He will likely face off against Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a former Virginia governor since incumbent Gov. Ralph Norham is ineligible to run again due to term limits. (In Virginia, you cannot run twice consecutively.) This is because even though the Democratic primary has not yet been held, virtually every poll conducted has seen McAuliffe run up the margins drastically.

Even though Youngkin is not the most pro-Trump candidate out on the ballot, raising Republican hopes, he still fully embraces the right-wing agenda, including criticizing McAuliffe for expanding Medicaid in the state. Republicans are hoping that Democrats, after seizing control of the state government in 2019 and passing liberal agenda including gun control, minimum wage, and more, Republicans will be incentivized to vote.

Youngkin has the advantage of never holding office in Virginia before, depriving Democrats the ability to attack him. He is also not as pro-Trump as Amanda Chase, who called rioters at the Capitol on Jan. 6 “patriots.” He is also worth over $200 million, so he will be able to financially compete against McAuliffe.

Even so, the chances don’t look great for Youngkin, especially in a state that has, for the most part, consistently repudiated Republicans in recent years. He has campaigned with Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who has been made as one of the faces of the Jan. 6 riots. The fact that the race itself was so Trumpy is also likely to be something Virginia Democrats consistently remind voters come November.

In addition, polls have showed that Virginians are typically supportive of the Democratic agenda, including overwhelming support for Medicare for all, providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, a wealth tax, increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, and more. The Virginia GOP’s embracement of candidates with controversial stances on issues like abortion, immigration, and preservation of Confederate monuments has been criticized.

The fact that Democrats have also made it far easier to vote in this state is also increasing Democratic chances here, making it very difficult for Republicans to win, even as the rural western part of the state grows more Republican.

In conclusion, the path doesn’t look bright for the Virginia GOP. The statewide party has really fallen drastically in recent years, and it doesn’t look as though the party’s staunch embrace of Trump will help them in such a blue state, either.