How Might the 2022 Midterms Play Out?

The 2022 midterms are just under 10 months away. As they get closer, we are starting to get a better picture of how these elections might play out, especially as congressional redistricting is starting to be finalized by most states. We are starting to see clues of how some of the most consequential elections of this midterm election cycle might play out for both the Democrats and the Republicans.

The 2022 midterm elections will be very interesting for a number of reasons. Firstly, the decennial redistricting process will have finished for just the 24th time in history. The redistricting process, as will be discussed later, has turned out better for the Democrats than expected. Compared to the 2010 redistricting cycle, which was an absolute bloodbath for the Democrats, substantially bolstering the GOP’s gains, this year is poised to be very different.

Secondly — and this is one of the most important — no election has ever happened with one party (the Republicans) still actively rejecting the results of the previous presidential election. By and large, the mainstream pro-Trump wing of the Republican Party still refuses to accept President Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential election, and this has resulted in a number of consequences for the GOP.

One is that the GOP has been actively pursuing laws that will restrict voter turnout, citing “voter fraud” in the 2020 election. These laws, such as the one passed in Georgia, do nothing more but make it more difficult for people to vote, especially for Democratic-leaning communities of color. Mostly enacted in Republican-leaning swing states, they restrict absentee voting, close down polling stations, restrict voting hours, and, overall, harm working-class voters’ ability to vote. Also, they include provisions that make it easier for partisan hacks to take over the voting process from the hands of nonpartisan election boards. This may increase the chances of a legitimate election being overturned.

Though some blue states have enacted laws to make it easier to vote, these will have less of an impact as many of the most consequential elections will take place in GOP-controlled or GOP-leaning swing states. This includes elections in Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Florida, and Ohio.

Compounded with the Democrats’ inability to pursue voting rights legislation on the federal level, this problem is only expected to worsen.

There is also the national political environment to consider. We are currently in one of the most polarized eras of American politics, and that has been reflected in voter polls. A Gallup poll indicated that Biden’s approval rating has dropped to just 40%, down from 57% when he took office last January. The downfall has mainly come from Democratic voters (his approval dropped from 98% to 82%) and independent voters (dropping from 61% to 33%). Approval among Republicans has remained steady, dropping from 11% to just 5% in the latest poll.

The fall in Democratic approval isn’t likely to be significant come the 2022 midterms, because although they may disapprove of Biden, they are still extremely likely to vote Democratic. For instance, progressive Democrats may be dissatisfied with the lack of progress from the Biden administration, but that isn’t going to cause them to vote Republican — they’ll continue to vote blue, or not vote at all.

Rather, the presidential approval figure is important because, historically, presidential approval polls have been good indicators of midterm year performance.

In addition, according to the same Gallup poll, Biden’s approval rating one year into taking office is the most polarized ever recorded, going back almost 50 years. There is an 83% difference in approval between Democrats and Republicans. It is more polarized than Donald Trump’s approval rating because Republicans approved of Trump less than Democrats approve of Biden. Prior to Trump, opposing party voters were far more likely to view the president more favorably.

In any case, the president’s party has typically lost House seats in a midterm election, and that trend only looks likely to continue with Biden’s approval rating in the water heading into the 2022 midterms.

However, one important fact to keep in mind is that there is limited ground that the Democrats can lose in the House. The 2020 House elections turned out to be far worse for the Democrats than predicted, with the party losing a number of highly-competitive House races. In fact, of all the non-safe 2020 House races as listed by The New York Times, Democrats won zero tossup or Republican-leaning seats and managed to lose seven Democratic-leaning seats. Democrats were also unable to win competitive Senate races in numerous states. That is a major underperformance for a party that was widely expected to sweep the 2020 elections both on the House and Senate levels.

One can argue that there is only so much that Democrats can lose in the midterms. This means the Democrats need to focus less on defense and try and take back some highly competitive seats that might only have voted Republican by extremely narrow margins two years ago (assuming those districts remained the same). However, this still doesn’t negate the fact that incumbents typically lose dozens of House seats in their midterm elections.

The Senate has a very favorable map for the Democrats this cycle. Of all the Democratic-held seats up for reelection this year, just four of them — Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada — can even be considered competitive, and all are in states that are trending blue. Nevada, in particular, is getting very favorable for the Democrats, even if they might not win by large margins. In 2016, a red wave year, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was able to win by 3% in a fairly red year. Arizona and Georgia both have two Democratic senators, and are trending blue. New Hampshire is a perennial swing state, but has leaned Democratic federally in recent years.

On the other hand, Republicans will be defending seats in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And in all of them except Florida and Wisconsin, the incumbent is retiring, so these will be open races. That dramatically increases the chances of these races flipping.

Furthermore, incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is in an extremely precarious position. Not only did he break his promise to not run for reelection after seeking two terms in office by choosing to run again this year, but his previous two elections all came down to luck. In 2010, he was able to ride on the coattails of an extremely strong red wave year to beat incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Six years later, he got lucky again as he was not only able to run against Feingold again (candidates who lose election but choose to run again typically fare badly), but was also able to rid the coattails of Trump’s election victory, who dramatically outperformed in the Rust Belt region.

This year, Johnson doesn’t seem to have anyone’s coattails to ride along with. Also, he only just recently announced his intention to seek reelection. This late decision has robbed him of valuable time to campaign, and so it remains to be seen if he will be so lucky this year.

Based on historical trends, it seems like a reverse of the 2018 midterms is most likely — Democrats lose the House but retain or even expand their Senate majority. This is especially considering the population growth in states with Senate elections, such as Georgia and Arizona, helping make these states lean even bluer than they were two years ago. Also, there is the point to consider that the Democrats haven’t enacted any legislation (so far) that seems likely to cause a major pushback from Republicans, which was true in 2010 with the Affordable Care Act. History does, however, prepare us for the expectation that Republicans are likely to have a good midterm year.