The 2020 Governor Race cycle is perhaps less exciting than in other years, for example, the midterm cycle, where over 30 states hold gubernatorial elections, but there are a few interesting races to talk about. Only 11 governor seats are up for grabs this year, that being of Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia.
We’ll first classify all the safe races. There are a few, and I’ll explain why below.
Washington and Delaware are the only two safe races for the Democratic Party. These races are almost certain to go to the Democrats. Vermont and New Hampshire are notably missing from this list.
Indiana, North Dakota, Utah, and West Virginia are all safe for the Republicans. Although West Virginia used to be a Democratic state as recently as 1996, the state is now among the most conservative-leaning in the whole country.
The likely races will now be classified.
Missouri should come at no surprise to anyone; it is no longer competitive and is highly likely to go to the Republicans. North Carolina is also considered likely for the Democrats. This is because Roy Cooper, the incumbent Democrat, won his election narrowly as Donald Trump carried the state by four percent. Since this year is expected to be a Democratic wave year with Joe Biden being the narrow favorite to win the state, Cooper should be able to keep his seat. However, his power within the state is quite limited due to a GOP-dominated state legislature.
Vermont and New Hampshire are likely Republican in this state, probably the only time you will ever see these states go red. These two states both have popular centrist Republican governors, Phil Scott and Chris Sunuru, similar to Massachusetts. As a result, their governors are likely to be reelected.
The last state to talk about is Montana. Montana will be an open election, as incumbent Steve Bullock (D) is ineligible for a third term due to term limits and has chosen to run for the Senate instead. This is the most competitive state this year, and Democratic candidate Mike Cooney is facing Republican candidate Greg Gianforte.
Many people might think that Montana is a safe Republican state, but that is only true on the presidential level. Down-ballot, Montana frequently votes for Democrats for positions such as governor, senator, representative, etc. The incumbent governor is a good example of this.
This could be an important race since Montana is projected to gain a House seat due to redistricting after the 2020 Census. If districted correctly, Democrats are hoping to gain a House seat here.
Polls are showing a slight edge here for Gianforte, though, and so this could be the first time in over two decades that the Montana governorship goes to the Republicans.
As a result, I will classify the seat as tilt Republican. This may change as election day nears. This is how our map looks after characterizing all the states.
Stay tuned to the blog as more election predictions and analyses are coming. My House prediction for early September should be coming out soon, so make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss it.
Check out my Presidential, Senate, and House predictions for early September too.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.
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