The Fast-Changing Presidential Race (Mid-Sept)

Welcome back to another 2020 presidential prediction. As we near the election, the dynamic of the presidential race is fast-changing, and there will be an update every two weeks on the races up until Election Day. Since the last prediction early this month, the national landscape has changed drastically, including the extremely unfortunate and saddening passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

In case you are not familiar with how the president is elected, make sure to check out our guide. A Senate prediction will be coming out after more senators express their opinions on whether or not to confirm a new justice onto the Supreme Court. With COVID-19, health care, abortion, gun control, racial relations, and now a Supreme Court seat up on the ballot this year, we can almost guarantee that turnout will be overwhelming this year—on both sides. This prediction will work with the assumption that turnout will be relatively high for both Democrats and Republicans alike. The Democrats have already raised

As per usual, states are classified according to the estimated win margin for each candidate. If it is predicted a candidate will win by more than 15 percent, the state is classified as safe. Five to 15 percent is likely, one to five percent is lean, and anything between zero and one percent is tilt.

We will start again by coloring in all the safe states. These remain pretty much the same throughout all my predictions. It is predicted that the respective candidates will win these states by more than 15 percent.

You may have noticed a large number of missing states from the Trump column. That is because though some states are almost certain to go to Trump, the margin will be less than 15 percent. As a result, just based on this map, the Democrats have a clear upper hand. Most of these states don’t require much discussion: they are certain to vote in one particular way.

Interestingly, though, even though I have classified Alabama as “safe” for Trump, a new poll from the Tyson Group (B/C rated pollster) is showing Trump up by just four percent in the state. In the bigger picture, though, that is likely to be an outlier.

Let’s now classify the states that are almost safe for their respective candidates, but the margins are expected to be less than 15 percent.

This category includes states that went to Hillary Clinton in 2016, like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Maine At-large, and New Hampshire. Since Biden is only expected to gain from Hillary’s margins in 2016, all of these states should vote for Biden by at least five percent. In Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico, Biden is virtually leading by double digits.

For Trump, this includes Montana, Utah, Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, and Mississippi. Mississippi, in particular, could very well narrow up. Black turnout is likely to be driven up significantly in this election, and the race there could well narrow up, though still expected to go to Trump by a solid margin. Polls are showing despite Trump leading by double digits in the state, the Senate race there only has the incumbent Republican (Cindy Hyde-Smith) up by a very narrow margin, which could be indicative of larger black turnout. There should be almost no argument about how the rest of these states will vote. Though Montana is competitive on the Senate and House level, it isn’t on the presidential level, and is probably going to vote for Trump.

The rest of the likely states are as follows.

Arizona once again moves back into the likely column. I am particularly confident that Democrats will be able to secure the races in Arizona, given the fact that the state is turning blue rapidly (Democrats scored insane victories here in the 2018 midterms). Michigan also belongs in this category. Even though it voted for Trump in 2016, it was by a razor-thin margin (0.27 percent) and so it was most likely a one-off fluke, like Barack Obama winning Indiana in 2008. The state will probably vote Democratic. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, for instance, is rating Michigan as safer for Biden than Nevada, a Clinton state in 2016. The same goes for Minnesota—it voted for Clinton in 2016. It probably isn’t flipping this year (it’s rated safer than Michigan on FiveThirtyEight). Compared to my previous prediction, Minn. and Ariz. moved from lean to likely.

The other state is South Carolina. I truly debated with myself for a long time as to whether or not the state should be lean or likely. Given how close the Senate race is here (even more narrow now after the incumbent vowed to vote in a Trump nominee), it seemed likely for a second that the state would be lean. However, after much consideration, on the presidential level, in spite of high Black turnout, it will still probably be lean Republican.

We now get into the lean states, which are the real competitive races of the year. There are 154 competitive electoral votes. Both Trump and Biden must at least win some states from this column in order to win the election. We’ll first start with the lean states.

With just the classification of lean states, Biden has won the election.

Iowa continues to be a lean Republican state. In polls, Trump is still ahead by 1.8 percent, and though the race narrowed up to even at one point in July, Trump is undoubtedly still favored to win this swing state. All races—presidential, Senate, and House—are super competitive in the state this year. Most reliable pollsters have also given Trump a slight edge in the state.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania continue to be lean Democratic states. Though the polling in Wisconsin is very good for Joe Biden (polling average shows Biden up by 6.4 percent), and there have been tons and tons of polls from the state, the race here will most likely narrow up. In addition, the state was significantly wrong in 2016 compared to the polls. Pennsylvania is arguably the most important state in 2020 (more on that in a separate post). This state is the least solid for Biden in the Rust Belt, but all data points to Biden being favored here.

Florida is another super competitive, super important race this year. However, do note that although it is worth 29 electoral votes, it isn’t crucial for Biden to win. If he just wins all the rest of the lean states (Rust Belt plus Clinton states), he will have 290 electoral votes, enough to secure a victory. The race has narrowed here significantly, to just a 2.0 percent lead for Biden. Despite this, though, FiveThirtyEight still gives Joe Biden a 60 percent chance of winning the state.

Nebraska’s Second District is the last lean characterization. The district covers the Omaha area, which is significantly more liberal than the rest of the state. In the big picture, it isn’t too important, although if the race is close, it may be quite important in a very close race. Polling is showing a sustained lead here for Joe Biden.

We now get to the most competitive states: the tilt states. There are 88 electoral votes in this category.

Texas and Georgia continue to be tilt Republican states. Texas, especially, is extremely close. Once again, the polling average here has fallen to just a 0.8 percent lead for Donald Trump, well within the margin of error. Georgia, too, is very close, with Trump coming in at a 1.0 percent lead. These states, though slightly favored to go to Trump, are very competitive this election season. Minority turnout will be key in these states.

Ohio has moved from lean to tilt Republican. Ohio has voted with the election winner correctly every year since 1964, so seeing it flip this year would be quite disappointing. Trump currently leads by 1.5 percent and FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 55 percent chance of winning, so the race is very close here too. Whether or not the Republicans force a justice onto the Supreme Court will probably affect how the state votes, too.

Maine’s Second District is a flip from my previous map. The district moves from lean Republican to tilt Democratic. The reason for this flip is because polling data is increasingly showing Biden leading in the district, with all evidence pointing toward Biden being a slight favorite here. FiveThirtyEight has also narrowed down the race significantly, and is now a 50-50 chance for either side. Even though it voted for Trump by almost 10 percent in 2016, it now seems increasingly likely to be a fluke. Highly rated polls, like those from Siena College/New York Times, Suffolk University, and Quinnipiac University, are all showing a lead for Biden in the state.

The final state is North Carolina. Again, this race is going to be extremely close, but Biden is still the favorite to win in the state. Biden currently leads by 1.2 percent in the state. If minority turnout is very high, it will likely move the race even more in favor of the Democrats. Because Thom Tillis, the incumbent Republican, has already come out staunchly in support of voting for Trump’s nominee, Cal Cunningham is likely to get an even bigger boost in the Senate, which could help the state flip blue on the presidential level.

With that, the final tally is 335-203. Though some margins have changed, the only flip is Maine’s Second District. Again, with just 42 days and counting until Election Day, things are not looking great for the president. If he chooses to force a nomination through before Election Day, it could further impact his path to reelection, as a fairly large chunk of the electorate would rather see the winner of November’s election nominate a justice. Forcing a vote could also massively drive up Democratic turnout, as many Democrats have already threatened to court-pack if Trump pushes a nominee through.

Again, aggregating all the data, here is a map based on win probability (not margin). Anything higher than 90 percent is safe, 80 percent for likely, 60 percent for lean, and anything between 50 and 60 percent is tilt.

This race is drumming up to be one of the highest-stakes elections in modern history. Make sure to vote if you are eligible. Leave a comment down below and tell me how accurate you think my predictions are. Make sure to subscribe in order to receive updates on when I post.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}