Though Iowa, the Hawkeye State, is seen as getting progressively more Republican due to the state voting for Donald Trump by a 10-point margin in 2016, it is still a hotly contested swing state and definitely on both parties’ radar. There are close presidential, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races in the state, and we also must not forget the fact that Iowa has a long history of big swings between presidential candidates.
Let’s start by discussing Iowa on the presidential level. Iowa is a classic swing state, and since Lyndon Johnson’s election in 1964, only three presidents (Ford, Dukakis, and Gore) have won Iowa and lost the election. The state voted for Donald Trump by a 9.5-point margin four years ago, but don’t let that number make it seem Iowa is not a swing state. Iowa has a history of swinging between candidates of different parties (swings between years of voting for the same party are common too).
| Election Cycle | Swing |
| 1964 (D) -1972 (R) | 37-point swing |
| 1984 (R) – 1988 (D) | 18-point swing |
| 2000 (D) – 2004 (R) | 2-point swing |
| 2004 (R) – 2008 (D) | 4-point swing |
| 2012 (D) – 2016 (R) | 15-point swing |
As a result, it isn’t completely out of the question for it to swing back to the Democrats again this year.
Polling data is showing the state will be a very close state. As of writing, Biden is very slightly favored to win here, up 0.4 percent in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
In addition, most pundit forecasters are rating the state as lean Republican, the same characterization I used in my presidential forecast. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight, Politico, the JHK forecast, CNN, U.S. News and World Report, 270towin, and lots more have rated the race as such. However, as polling data has improved significantly for Biden in the state, forecasters such as The Cook Political Report have moved the race into the tossup category. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows that Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning Iowa, and the predicted vote share is 50.4 percent for Trump to Biden’s 48.3 percent, a clear tossup.
This is in conjunction with new polling data from Seltzer & Co., Iowa’s most reliable pollster (A+ rated) showing the race even. Another A+ rated pollsters, like Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, shows Biden up by three. A RABA Research (B/C rated) poll shows Biden up by two as well. Most new polls from Iowa are showing slim leads for Biden.
However, with the debates simply being a disaster for Trump, it is getting more and more unlikely for him to be reelected.
Let’s now shift our focus to Iowa’s Senate race, which is very hotly contested. The incumbent Republican, Joni Ernst, is facing off Theresa Greenfield, her Democratic challenger. Polling data has indicated both candidates are neck-and-neck, with highly respected Iowa-based pollster Selzer & Co. (A+ rated pollster) showing Greenfield up by three percent in the latest poll.
This race is a key race, and is a possible pickup for the Democrats. This race, along with Montana’s Senate race, is noted as one of two possible races that could give Democrats an outright majority of 51 seats in the Senate.
My Senate prediction (late Sept.) currently rates the race as tilt Democratic. However, the race can go in either direction. All pundit forecasters have rated this race as a tossup. FiveThirtyEight’s “deluxe” Senate forecast is giving Ernst a 53 percent chance of winning reelection, a tossup. (In fact, it is the most competitive Senate race.) The projected vote share is 49.0 percent for Ernst to Greenfield’s 48.3 percent. On the “lite” model, comprised only of polling data, the seat goes to Greenfield narrowly. With regard to polls in this Senate race, all but one of them are showing leads for Greenfield.
The final point of discussion is Iowa’s U.S. House races. Iowa is a perfect example of how House districts should be drawn—almost equal in size and population, splitting the state neatly into quarters, with no gerrymandering (an independent committee draws up the districts). As a result, three out of four of its House seats are hotly contested. (However, the state is expected to lose one House seat following apportionment due to the 2020 Census.)
Iowa’s first, second, and third districts are all hotly contested (the fourth is safe Republican). Currently, they all have Democratic incumbents following Democratic gains in the first and third districts after the 2018 midterms.
The first district was won by the Democrats by a five-point margin, and Monmouth University (A+ rated pollster) polls are showing the incumbent Democrat up ten percent. Most forecasters are rating this as either a tilt/lean Democratic state or a tossup.
The second state is an open election for this year. Though Monmouth’s poll has the Republican leading by a slight margin, pundit forecasters are more confident in rating this district as lean Democratic than the first. In 2018, the state reelected its Democratic incumbent by a margin of 12 percent. As it was rated safe then, this district has definitely gotten more Republican.
The third district contains Iowa’s capital and largest city, Des Moines. Monmouth’s poll is showing a moderate lead for the Democrats. The state was a complete tossup in 2018 and eventually voted in a Democrat by a two point margin. This year, though, the state is being predicted to vote slightly to the left, with most rating the race as lean Democratic or tossup.
In conclusion, Iowa is a very competitive state in all levels: presidential, senatorial, and House levels. The state will be a key state in the 2020 election and one to keep a close eye on.
I plan on doing these “state analyses” to most swing states before November 3, including Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, the Rust Belt states, and more. I have already covered Arizona, Florida, and Montana.
Stay tuned as I will have a post soon discussing my Senate predictions. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss it.
If you are eligible to vote, make sure you go and vote this November, as your vote matters. Use it wisely.
We are now 33 days away from Election Day.
PRE-RELEASE BREAKING NEWS (1:30 a.m. EDT): President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump announced that they have tested positive for COVID-19, shortly after a close aide, Hope Hicks, tested positive for the virus. Newshacker Blog wishes them a speedy recovery.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.
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