As November’s general election draws closer with just 47 days to go, neither the Senate nor the Presidential races are tightening up. Rather, just about every swing state is moving in the Democrats’ favor. Let’s take a look at how the races stand today, based on forecasts and polling averages.
Let’s start by looking at the presidential race. (Check out my forecast, too.) As of writing, the nationwide polling average is seeing Joe Biden lead by about 7 points. This figure has barely changed since March, and most fluctuations are caused by outlier polls (such as a new poll from Rasmussen Reports (R) showing the race even between Trump and Biden). The data is already indicating Joe Biden having a majority of the vote share. This means that, if the election were held today, all the undecided voters could vote for Trump, but he would still lose as Joe Biden already has over 50 percent of the vote share.
The forecasts are looking good for Joe Biden too, especially when compared with Hillary Clinton’s numbers back in 2016. Joe Biden now has an approximately three-quarters chance of winning the presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model.
This figure hasn’t changed much, with Trump consistently hovering in the mid-to-low twenties since June.
The JHK forecast is also showing Joe Biden significantly ahead, at a 78 percent chance of winning the presidency. Compare this to 56 percent back in March, and you can see how significantly this gap has widened.
Based on the FiveThirtyEight model, just about every swing or tossup state has moved in favor of Biden since July, as seen in the table below.
The states that have seen the largest swing in favor of Biden are Minnesota, Arizona, and Wisconsin. The latter two of these voted for Trump in 2016, but Biden is now the clear favorite to win in these states. Wisconsin has an 80 percent chance of flipping blue this year. This is despite the fact that many believed the protests in Kenosha, Wis., would shift the election in Trump’s favor. All throughout the Rust Belt, the race has moved drastically in Biden’s favor. Now Michigan, a Trump state in 2016, has a higher likelihood of voting for Biden than Nevada, a Clinton state in 2016 (though Republicans are often overestimated in Nev.)!
It is almost unbelievable that Texas has an approximately 30 percent chance of flipping this election cycle. This is a traditional conservative stronghold that now has a very real possibility of flipping this year. The GOP losing Texas is akin to the Democrats losing California: it would be a major blow to their parties. Unfortunately for the Republicans, though, California is nowhere near competitive. Texas is. The chance of it flipping is almost the same as the chance Trump had of winning the presidency back in 2016.
Even states like Montana, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Alaska are listed here as being swing states. These are basically likely or safe GOP states that have anywhere from a 10 percent chance of flipping (Mo.) to an almost 20 percent chance of flipping (Alaska). That would have been unfathomable just four years ago, but now, are, despite them being long shots, possibilities for the Democrats.
The only real state in which Trump has made a slight gain in is Florida. Florida has always been a lean Republican swing state that is generally immune to wave years (like in 2018). Florida’s chances for Biden moved from 63 percent down to 60 percent. That still means it is very possible for Biden to win it, although it has gotten harder now. Whether Bloomberg spending $100 million here will help Biden remains to be seen. But even if Florida’s 29 electoral votes go to Trump, Biden has made up for this loss in places like the Rust Belt and Arizona. It isn’t essential for Biden to win this state in order to win. It is absolutely essential for Trump to win Florida if he even wants a shot at winning.
All in all, things are definitely looking up for the Democrats. The race isn’t really narrowing, and every day that passes is another lost day for Trump to gain ground. With just 47 days to go, this year’s election is drumming up to be an exciting one.
Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.