Final 2020 Pre-Election Gubernatorial Race Predictions

Welcome to the final installment of Newshacker Blog‘s governorship race prediction of the 2020 election cycle. Though not much has changed since the last governorship prediction in early September, I do want to make one last recap of where the governor races around the nation stand prior to Election Day on Nov. 3.

Though governor races are less interesting than the U.S. Senate and the presidency, the governorship is still a significant down-ballot statewide race that could have implications on the federal level. For instance, a popular Democratic governor in a swing state may end up helping Joe Biden win the popular vote in that state.

11 states are holding gubernatorial elections this year: Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.

In case you’re not familiar with margin colors used in these maps, the order is as follows (the darker the color, the safer a state is for a candidate):

• If the winning margin is expected to be greater than or equal to 15 percent, the state is “safe”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between five and 15 percent, the state is “likely”;
• If the winning margin is expected to be between one and five percent, the state is “lean”; and
• If the winning margin is expected to be within one percent, the state is “tilt.”

We’ll start off by taking a look at some of the safe states.

There are only two states that are expected to vote in a Democratic governor by a safe margin, and these are the states of Delaware and Washington. John Carney, Delaware’s current governor, is seeking a second term, while Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington, is hoping for a third term. These two governors should easily win their reelection bids.

There are a number of safe Republican states on this list, the most surprising of which are probably New Hampshire and Vermont. Both are generally Democratic states, but both states have extremely popular, liberal Republican governors. Chris Sununu and Phil Scott respectively remain outliers in their mostly Democratic-leaning states, and they have been able to win elections due to their extremely centrist, and even liberal, beliefs. Both of them are socially liberal and slightly fiscally conservative. Scott is popular from his good handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as is Sununu, and in the polls, both lead by 20-30 percent. They should have no trouble winning reelection.

Since Indiana, N.D., Utah, and W.Va. are safe Republican states on all levels, again, there should be no surprise here that a Republican will be voted into the governor’s mansion in these states. Eric Holcomb (R-Ind.), Doug Burgum (R-N.D.), and Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) should soar to victory. Utah’s incumbent governor, Gary Herbert is retiring, but that shouldn’t stop Republican candidate Spencer Cox from winning in this deep red state.

That leaves us with three relatively competitive races, two of which are likely for their respective candidates.

Though Missouri was once a swing state, it has moved out of that column and is now a ruby-red state. Because of that, incumbent governor Mike Parson will have no trouble cruising to victory in this state, albeit only by a likely margin. Polls show him leading his Democratic challenger Nicole Galloway by the mid single-digits. The highest-rated poll in for this rate is by Cygnal (A/B rated), which has Parson leading by seven on October 20.

Despite North Carolina being more of a swing state on the federal level, it seems as though incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has locked this state down. For instance, in 2016, the state voted for Donald Trump by four percent, yet Cooper managed to eke out a victory in the state. Since 2020 is a strong year for the Democrats, Cooper will probably win his race. Polls show Cooper leading by fairly high margins: Siena College/New York Times (A+ rated poll) shows Cooper leading by 14, SurveyUSA (A rated poll) shows Cooper leading by 13, while Monmouth University (A+ rated poll) shows Cooper leading by about eight percent. Emerson College (A- rated poll), which has shown better results for the GOP this year, shows Cooper leading by four percent. Also, all pundit forecasters are predicting the race for Cooper.

The only really competitive governor race this year is in Montana, which is expected to go to a Republican by a lean margin, thereby finishing off our map.

Though a Democrat has held the governorship in Montana for the past two decades, unfortunately, it seems like this streak is about to end. With incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock ineligible to run again due to term limits (he is running for senator instead), Republican Greg Gianforte, Montana’s current at-large congressman, looks poised to win.

Despite the fact that the race is still classified as a tossup by The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and 270towin, Gianforte has been leading in virtually every poll by at least a lean margin, if not a likely margin. Emerson College and Siena College/New York Times polls are showing good standings for him too, so 2020 may mark the first time in over two decades a Republican occupies Montana’s governorship.

The following table shows the final prediction in table form.

In conclusion, Republicans are expected to hold more governorships than Democrats. Because the governor race is more stable, there probably won’t be any changes from now till election day, which is now only a couple days away. Newshacker Blog‘s final U.S. Senate and Electoral College maps for this election will be out in the coming days too, so make sure to stay tuned for that by subscribing.

If you haven’t voted yet, there still is the opportunity to vote on Election Day, so please make sure you come up with a voting plan. Learn more about voting here.

Make sure to check out our final Electoral College prediction and U.S. Senate prediction.

Check out the 2020 election coverage page for more on the election.