How South Carolina’s US Senate Race Got So Competitive

South Carolina is traditionally a ruby-red, solid Republican state. However, the incumbent Republican U.S. senator, Lindsey Graham, is facing the fight of his life. Polls have shown the race at a virtual statistical tie. How did the Senate race in the Palmetto State get so tight, when he won reelection in 2014 by a safe margin? And will Graham actually lose?

Early on in the year, this Senate race was rated as safe Republican by many forecasters. No one expected at all for this race to narrow up. Then, when Democrat Jaime Harrison, former chair of the S.C. Democratic Party and associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee officially became the Democratic nominee for this Senate seat (the primary was canceled due to COVID-19).

The Cook Political Report moved the race to likely Republican. But the race got narrower. So it was moved to lean Republican. And now, it’s a tossup. The other forecasters aren’t far behind, either. Inside Elections has the race at tilt Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Politico have the race at lean Republican. And The Economist and RealClearPolitics have the race at a tossup. The outlier is FiveThirtyEight, which still rates the race as likely Republican. The Newshacker Blog projection (late September) rates the race as tilt Republican.

The reason for this quick shift in race ratings has more to do with Senator Lindsey Graham than it does with the state. Fundamentally, the electorate hasn’t changed. What has changed, though, is voters’ perception of Graham.

Back in 2016, Graham was firmly opposed to Trump. He called him “crazy,” a “kook,” and “unfit for office,” yet, he has now become a staunch supporter of the President.

The hypocrisy doesn’t end there. When Supreme Court Justice Scalia died in Feb. 2016, Graham vowed not to let then-President Obama nominate Justice Merrick Garland onto the Supreme Court, claiming that it was too close to the election. He said, “I want you to use my words against me. If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say, ‘Lindsey Graham said, “Let’s let the next president whoever it might be, make that nomination.”‘” But now, with the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, he has come out in full support of Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

This has resulted in many voters believing Graham is dishonest. In fact, in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late Sept., over 50 percent of people believed Graham to be dishonest.

That is just one of the many reasons making the race competitive. Another main reason is that the Palmetto State is just simply not as right-leaning as you might think. Since 1992, there has always been at least 40 percent of people voting for the Democratic president, and in 2016, Trump won by only a likely margin. Polls show at least 45 percent of voters backing Jaime Harrison, which, based on historical data, isn’t all too surprising. Remember, 28 percent of S.C.’s electorate is Black. Driving out Black turnout could be key to Democrats winning the state.

In addition, Jaime Harrison is perhaps one of the strongest candidates the Democrats could run. He has no past voting record for his opponents to attack. He doesn’t support Medicare for All nor the Green New Deal, so the Republicans can’t use that against him.

Let’s now take a look at some polling data. The data is well within the margin of error for either candidate and have all been extremely close.

Though on FiveThirtyEight this race is the sixth most-competitive U.S. Senate race, the model still gives Lindsey Graham a 76 percent chance of winning on the Deluxe model, which an outlier compared to pundit forecasts like those on Cook and Crystal Ball. This percentage does drop down, though on the Lite forecast model, to 73 percent.

The outcome of this race will play a big part in determining which party wins the Senate majority. Though not crucial for the Democrats in securing a Senate majority, winning this race can help offset the possibility of an upset in other states. The seat is crucial for a Republican majority, though. Without this seat, there is practically no way the Republicans can get a majority.

Another thing to note is that Jaime Harrison has significantly and consistently out-fundraised Lindsey Graham. For example, in just the month of August, Harrison raised $10.6 million, which is $2 million more than what Graham raised in the second quarter. And Harrison raised more than $1 million in two back-to-back days earlier. New data shows Harrison raising $57 million in the third quarter, completely shattering the fundraising records of a U.S. Senate candidate. Harrison previously estimated he would need $10 million to win. PAC spending from both sides in the state has been high too.

Earlier, Graham was so concerned about Harrison’s numbers that he broke down—twice—on Fox News asking people to donate to him, saying that Harrison was “killing him financially.”

The issue with S.C. is that the Democrats always seem to hit a peak at around 45 percent of the vote. The reason could be because many whites are extremely reluctant to vote Democratic. In order to win this state, Jaime Harrison and the Democrats must significantly drive up Black and minority turnout.

On the presidential level, however, the Democrats are not as competitive. Though it is the closest non-swing state (after Texas), Trump does still have an 85 percent chance of winning the state (interestingly, Biden has an 85 percent chance of winning the entire election) as per FiveThirtyEight.

In 2016, the state voted for Trump by a likely margin, but only just. Trump won by a 14-point margin. Though the race is much closer this year, it seems very difficult for Biden to win. On the polling average, Trump is still up 5.4 percent. That means that an upset is possible, but probably unlikely.

Polling data has generally shown Trump leading by single-digit margins; however, to date, no A or higher rated pollsters have polled the state. It would be great if a highly-rated pollster (like The New York Times) could poll here so we get a better picture of where the race stands.

There is just one competitive U.S. House race here, which is the first district seat. The seat covers the Charleston area and has a Democratic incumbent, Joe Cunningham. Cunningham’s election in 2018 marked the first time since 1981 the district had been represented by a Democrat, and though the race is technically a tossup, many pundit forecasters like Cook, Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the race as lean or tilt Democratic. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe U.S. House forecast gives Cunningham a 54 percent chance, while JHK’s House forecast model gives him a 59 percent chance.

In conclusion, for the Democrats to win, they must drive up Black and minority turnout, which make up a sizable proportion of the South Carolina electorate. This may help them overcome the oh-so-dreaded peak of 45 percent of the vote share.

If you live in S.C. (or anywhere else for that matter) and are eligible to vote, please make sure you vote as early as possible, as your vote matters. Click here to learn more about voting.

A detailed U.S. Senate prediction will be coming tomorrow. Make sure to subscribe to the blog so you don’t miss any posts. There will be posts every weekday at least until Election Day.