The Key Battleground State of Florida

Florida has always been a key battleground state in virtually every election cycle in modern history. The Sunshine State has a slight Republican tilt, but its 29 electoral votes, the third-biggest electoral prize, is always sought after by candidates on both sides. This year, none of its Senate seats are up for reelection.

The main liberal region of the state is in the southeast, where large countries such as Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach vote Democratic, while counties in the northern part of the state typically lean Republican.

In the year 2000, the state was the deciding state of the election. George W. Bush only won by a margin of 500 votes.

The state has seen population growth and a growing minority population, but an influx of elderly retirees keeps the state from swaying too far in one direction. This has also made it immune from wave years, such as the fact that it voted for a Republican senator (by a very narrow margin) in the Democratic wave year of 2018. The state is now the third-largest in terms of population, behind only Texas and California.

Polling data is showing Biden holding a constant lead, though his lead now has dwindled by over five percent from his peak. At Biden’s peak, he led by almost eight points, but that is now down to just two percent on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Though polling shows Donald Trump and Joe Biden almost neck-and-neck in the state, many pundit forecasters have rated the race slightly in favor of the Democrats. These include Inside Elections, Niskanen Center, The Economist, ABC News, NBC News, NPR, and FiveThirtyEight’s very own election model (a 60 percent chance of a Biden win). The Newshacker forecast also rates the race as such. The other forecasters have rated the race as a tossup.

This race is so important to both sides due to its large number of electoral votes. Though Pennsylvania is expected to be the tipping point (the state that puts a candidate above 270 electoral votes) about one-third of the time, Florida is expected to be the tipping point 14 percent of the time, the second-highest. This is likely due to the fact that Joe Biden already has a strong grip on the Rust Belt and states like Arizona. As a result, to Joe Biden, the state is significantly less important than it is to Joe Biden.

To understand what I mean, take a look at the electoral map below. This is already pretty generous for Trump since it assumes that he wins the swing states of Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and Maine’s Second District. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are pretty much all lost causes for Trump now, and Arizona is highly unlikely to flip.

To win, he must also carry North Carolina (plausible), Florida (also plausible), Pennsylvania (unlikely), and also Wisconsin (even more unlikely). He cannot afford to lose a single one (if Biden wins Wisconsin, it would be a tie in this scenario), or else, he would lose.

Therefore, the candidate that wins Florida has a significant upper hand. If Biden wins Florida, the race is practically lost for Trump. If Trump wins Florida, he could win, but he’ll have to face an uphill battle in order to win reelection.

Biden will definitely make a play for Florida, because if he wins it, it will ensure that Trump loses the election.

This state will also be one of the most expensive. Michael Bloomberg, for example, is spending $100 million in the state to help Democrats. And already, well over $200 million has been spent by both campaigns and outside groups in ads in the state.

With such a large elderly population, the impact of COVID-19 and how elderly voters will react remains to be seen. In any case, this will be one of the closest and most hotly contested races of the year.

Make sure to check out our other state analyses on Montana and Arizona.

A post on the presidential debate will be coming tomorrow. Make sure to stay tuned so you don’t miss it.

_{Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed slightly since writing.}