Is Michigan Is Safer For Biden Than South Dakota Is For Trump?

One of the three Rust Belt swing states (the others being Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Michigan shocked the nation when it voted for Trump in 2016 by a margin of just 0.23 percent. This prompted many to ask whether the so-called “Blue Wall” will ever exist again. However, it seems like that the Great Lakes State, along with its neighbors, have been able to rebuild the lucrative “Blue Wall” again.

With Michigan’s surprising flip in 2016, Michigan was once again thrown back into the swing state column. Though it had voted Democratic for many years, last voting for a Republican (George H. W. Bush) in 1988, it had actually not been that solid for the Democrats. In 2000 and 2004, Al Gore and John Kerry only won the state by margins of six and four percent respectively. Because Barack Obama performed so strongly in 2008 and 2012, carrying the state by 17 and 10 percent respectively, many people forgot that Michigan was, at heart, a swing state.

This resulted in Hillary Clinton (and other Democrats) being complacent in winning this state (along with Wisconsin) in 2016. Aside from the last week of the election, Clinton spent barely any money on ads here, and made zero in-person rallies in this state throughout the entire campaign season, while Trump spent fairly heavily in the state and made a number of rallies here.

Trump’s message of bringing the economy back together seemed to really resonate well with undecided voters here, who overwhelmingly voted for him. Trump was able to win this state by the most narrow margin out of the three Rust Belt states: by just 0.23 percent, or 10,704 votes.

As we’ll soon see, though, the chances of him carrying Michigan again are very slim. Firstly, though, let’s take a look at the demographics and geography of Michigan.

Michigan’s main Democratic stronghold is the city of Detroit. Though Detroit has been on the decline for decades, in recent years, the situation seems to have gotten better thanks to large-scale revitalization projects. Once a global manufacturing hub, especially for the automobile industry, it no longer holds that title. In general, most of the rest of the state is quite red, despite there being a heavy blue-collar worker presence. Though cities like Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Flint have trended somewhat Democratic in recent years, and the area did vote Democratic in the 2018 midterms, it isn’t an area the Democrats can rely on.

On the state level, the Democrats did amazingly well in the 2018 midterms. Democrats flipped all of the statewide offices held by Republicans, won the governorship, made considerable gains in the state legislature (though the GOP does still hold a majority in the legislature), flipped two U.S. House seats, and retained their U.S. Senate seat. In fact, the Michigan State House is considered a tossup this year. Democrats need to flip just seven seats to have a majority there. However, since a state constitutional amendment was passed in 2018 which would require congressional and legislative district maps to be drawn by a bipartisan citizen committee, arguably, the importance of the state legislature has diminished.

Having lost the state due to complacency in 2016, Joe Biden has made sure not to forget the Rust Belt. Since Sept. 1, the Biden campaign has made one stop in Grand Rapids, one in Flint, and a whopping eight campaign stops in the Detroit metropolitan area, compared to just four stops statewide the Trump campaign has made. In addition, according to the New York Times, Biden has spent over $53 million on ads in the Rust Belt region last month, compared to just $17 million by the Trump campaign.

That has paid off largely for Biden, who solidly leads Trump in the polls. Biden maintains an eight-point lead over Trump in this state, and he already has a majority of the vote share in the state. That is in stark contrast to 2016 when pre-election polls only gave Clinton a four-, five-point in the state, which isn’t too far out from the margin of error of polls. As seen below, Trump has never led Biden at all in the entire campaign season.

This lead has led to most to believe that Biden will score a victory in Michigan. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a whopping 94 percent chance of carrying the state, which, to put it into perspective, is the same amount that Trump has of carrying South Dakota, a solid, solid Republican state. In addition, Biden has a larger chance of carrying Michigan than Trump does Mississippi and Missouri.

Pundit forecasters have rated Michigan for Biden. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Politico, CNN, and more have rated this race as lean Democratic. Niskanen Center, ABC News, The Economist, and FiveThirtyEight, as well as the Newshacker Blog projection, have rated the race as likely Democratic.

Though Biden should not get complacent, he is in a very good position to carry the state.

The U.S. Senate election here is narrower than it is on the presidential level. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is defending his seat against John James (R). James ran for but lost, the 2018 Senate election here.

Peters is definitely the clear favorite to win the state. He maintains an 82 percent chance of victory in the state, a figure that has, despite moving down a few percentage points since September, remained largely stagnant. Polling data typically indicates a six-point lead for Peters in this state. Fox News and Siena College/New York Times polls, which are highly rated, show Peters up by eight.

In conclusion, Michigan seems to have been locked down by the Democrats. Biden and Peters are expected to win, and the party is looking to regain a majority in the state House. FiveThirtyEight’s simulation shows that, if Biden wins Michigan (ignoring all other states), he will have a 92 percent chance of winning the entire election.

2.3 million people in Michigan, or 48 percent of 2016 turnout, have voted already as of writing, based on data from the U.S. Elections Project.

Again, Election Day is very soon, so if you still haven’t voted, make sure you think of a voting plan. Learn more about voting here.

The last state I plan to cover in this swing state series is the state of Wisconsin, which will be coming out very soon. Meanwhile, check out our other swing state analyses: Arizona, Montana, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Maine and Nebraska’s second districts, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, and Alabama, Alaska, and Maine.

Check out our 2020 election coverage page for more on the election. Make sure to subscribe for more posts just like this one.