Presidential Race Moves In Biden’s Favor 20 Days Out (Mid-Oct.)

We are now officially 20 days from the election, and, since the last prediction, it was revealed that Trump paid just $750 in taxes, we have had the most chaotic presidential debate in history, and the President tested positive for COVID-19, all while Senate Republicans try to push through the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court and refusing to pass any coronavirus aid relief bills before Election Day.

Voting has already started in many states, and as of October 14, out of the states that report voting numbers, a cumulative nine million Americans have voted already, 73 times more than 2016. And out of the states that report voter party registration data, among mail-in ballots, 1.2 million Democrats and 505,000 Republicans have voted, clearly showing the divide between Democratic voters and Republican voters’ willingness to vote by mail.

This comes as the economy, health care, and the COVID-19 outbreak continue to be the most important issues for voters. Health care and COVID-19, as well as race relations and especially climate change, are more important to Democrats than Republicans.

All of this comes amid Joe Biden’s largest national lead ever, with him topping in at a 10.1-point lead over Donald Trump on FiveThirtyEight. This comes as Joe Biden experiences a post-debate and post-Trump-COVID surge in support. (On a separate note, this has been the most stable election season in modern history. At no point did Trump even come close to taking over Biden’s lead. This is something even Obama wasn’t able to do when he won by a landslide in 2008. McCain led Obama at some points.)

And even if you choose to believe RealClearPolitics over FiveThirtyEight, it isn’t much better for Trump either. He is still down 9.6 percent on the RCP average.

So, let’s now get into the election prediction. If you’re unfamiliar with how U.S. presidential elections work, make sure to check out our guide. We’ll once again start with the safe states for both the Democrats and Republicans.

Once again, note that this prediction is based on estimated winning margins for each candidate. The margins are as follows: if a candidate is expected to win 15 percent or greater, the state is safe, anywhere from five to 15 percent is likely, from one to five percent is lean, and if a candidate is expected to win by less than one percent, the state is tilt. I generally avoid using the tossup color as I like to characterize every state. Percent chances for state wins are based on the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

Given these numbers, you can see that Trump really is far behind Biden. The truth is that Trump has simply lost a lot of support in many Republican strongholds, so much so that a lot of them are no longer safe for him. That by no means means that Biden could win these states, though, as you’ll see.

Compared to the last prediction, New Mexico has moved into the safe column. New Mexico has simply gotten more liberal over the years, and the safe characterization is similar to many pundit forecasters, including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight, and even the PredictIt national betting odds all have N.M. classified as safe. With Biden having a 97 percent chance of winning, the state is a guaranteed lost cause for the GOP.

The rest of these states aren’t too surprising: there should really be no argument about who will win California or Wyoming.

We’ll now discuss the likely Republican states that aren’t considered swing states. These are the states that really should be safe, but because they aren’t expected to go to their respective candidates by over 15 percent, they fall into the likely column.

Most of these states have their respective candidates by double digits, or at least in the high single digits. The Democrats have practically locked down Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire, and the possibility of these states flipping are slim. A similar story goes for Montana, Mississippi, Utah, Indiana, Missouri, and Kansas. These states all went to Trump by safe or almost safe margins, and are not competitive, at least on the presidential level. Despite Montana and Kansas having very competitive U.S. Senate races, they aren’t competitive on the presidential level.

Nebraska’s first district moves from the safe column into the likely column. Though it isn’t competitive, it likely won’t go to Trump by a margin of over 15 percent. Some forecasters, like FiveThirtyEight and 270towin, also have the district at likely.

We’ll move on to the more competitive likely states next. These are the states that are at least somewhat competitive, but an upset is extremely unlikely.

Nevada and South Carolina are two states that went to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump respectively. Though they are probably not going to go to any candidate by a safe margin, realistically, they aren’t really competitive this year. Joe Biden practically has the Las Vegas metropolitan area locked down for him, and just that area can swing the entire state in the Democrats’ favor. Polls show Biden leading by 6.9 percent, and he has an 87 percent chance of winning. Though S.C. has a super competitive Senate race, again, on the presidential level, it just isn’t too competitive. Trump leads by 5.4 percent here and has an 84 percent chance of winning.

The same story goes for Alaska. Realistically speaking, though the margins will probably narrow up significantly compared to 2016, unless Native American turnout is extremely high, the state probably isn’t flipping. Due to the high Native American population, Alaska is one of few states where urban areas are more conservative than rural areas. In addition, Alaska also has a fairly large oil industry, a group that is very friendly to Republicans. Interestingly, though, Trump is only leading by a lean margin of 4.5 percent in the polls, with an 85 percent chance of winning. The state will be one to watch for its Senate and House race.

Minnesota is safer than the rest 0f the states in this column. Biden leads by 9.1 percent, a very large margin considering Clinton won by just a few percentage points in 2016. The Democrats have practically locked down the state already, and with the George Floyd protests earlier this year plus having voted for a number of progressives into Congress in 2018, the state is a far call for Trump (Trump has just a 10 percent chance of winning here).

We see our first flip so far in the state of Michigan, where polling has been very strong for Biden. With him leading by 8.3 percent and having a 91 percent chance of winning, the state is even safer for the Democrats than Missouri is for the Republicans. That is pretty significant considering the state voted for Trump, albeit by just a 0.27 percent margin. With all data considered, the probability of this state flipping are practically next to none.

We’ll now move on into the slightly more competitive lean states. These are the states that will probably decide the election for either candidate, and, spoiler alert: Biden wins.

Arizona has once again moved back into the lean column. I apologize for flipping the state back and forth, but after lots of careful consideration of the data, I feel that the state is probably lean for Biden. In polls, he has maintained a relatively consistent 3.8 point lead, and he has a two-thirds chance of winning the state. Because of how the state overwhelmingly voted for Democrats in 2018, though, I can’t really see how the state would go red without a drastic change in these last 20 days of the election. The state will probably get more and more Democratic, but this year, will probably go to Biden by a lean margin.

Surprisingly enough, Florida is considered safer for Biden than Florida is. Biden has a 71 percent chance of winning with him leading by 4.4 percent in the polls. This is likely due to a number of highly-rated pollsters putting Biden ahead in the state. Because of how much senior voters have shifted to the left this election cycle, they will probably be what secures Biden a victory in this state. Let’s just hope it won’t be as messy here as the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are two Rust Belt states that usually vote with Michigan, so it would be unlikely to see one of them vote differently from each other. Biden is showing strong leads in both states: he is up 7.3 percent and 7.1 percent respectively. In Pennsylvania, Biden has made a strong comeback, as at one point, he dwindled down to just a 4.5-point lead. It comes as a result of highly rated pollsters showing Biden up by high single digits or even double digits in the state. These two states were Trump states in 2016, but all voted for Trump by less than one-point margins. With Biden having an 85 percent chance of winning in Wis. and a 86 percent chance of winning in Penn., the “Blue Wall” seems to have been rebuilt.

Texas has moved into the lean Republican column as a result of the state having moved ever so slightly in the Trump’s favor. Trump leads by about 1.7 percent with a 70 percent chance of winning. Though the state is by no means unwinnable for Biden, he will need to inject much more money into the state and at least make a visit to the state. A Republican effort to suppress voting by removing mail-in ballot dropboxes has been blocked by a federal judge, so we will need to see how things develop in the Lone Star State.

The last region to be classified as lean is Nebraska’s second district, which encompasses Downtown Omaha. If you’re unsure as to what this is, make sure to check out our guide, which explains how Neb. and Maine divvy up their electoral votes. Biden has had an unexpectedly strong showing here, with him leading by 7.3 percent (yes, you read that correctly). Though it has been sparsely polled, we do have one reliable poll from Siena College/The New York Times (A+ rated) showing Biden up by seven percent here. The other polls have all been campaign internals. Biden has a 75 percent chance of winning here, which is insane considering the district has only gone to a Democrat once (2008) since Nebraska started divvying up electoral votes with this method.

We now get to the most competitive tilt states, of which there are four (and one district). Note that none of these are needed for Biden to win as he has already won, but, spoiler alert: in polls, he leads in all of them.

Georgia continues to remain in the tilt Republican column simply because polling data isn’t showing that strong of a lead for Trump. In fact, Biden is actually up by 0.8 percent, a lead that he has maintained since the beginning of this month. Despite this, though, the state still feels a bit too Republican to flip this year. Combine this with the massive voter suppression that goes on in the liberal stronghold of Atlanta, and the Republicans will probably be able to edge out a very narrow victory here this year. Trump has a 55 percent chance of winning, which puts Georgia as the closest Trump state. The expected popular vote share shows Trump up 0.8 percent.

North Carolina has consistently shown Biden leading by about one to 1.5 percent throughout the entire campaign season, with him currently leading by 2.8 percent, Biden’s best showing since June. This comes as a number of average-rated pollsters, such as Ipsos (B-), YouGov (B), Data for Progress (B-), and Public Policy Polling (B) show Biden leading in the state. However, without any A+ rated polling data for quite a while now, we are still not getting the full picture. The state is expected to be very close, with Biden having a 63 percent chance of winning. Like many other traditionally Republican states such as Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, the state’s leftward shift comes as a result of demographic shifts.

Iowa has once again moved back into the tilt Republican column. Polling data has, surprisingly, been quite good for Biden lately, with both a Quinnipiac University (B+ rated) and a Civiqs (B/C) rated poll putting Biden up. In September, a number of A+ rated pollsters, like Seltzer & Co. and Siena College/The New York Times put the race as even and Biden up by three respectively. The polling average here shows Biden up by 1.1 percent. Honestly, this race should probably be classified as a tossup, but I do believe that Trump may be able to just edge out a victory here, with him having a 55 percent chance of winning. This race’s rating may change prior to the election, so watch this space.

Maine’s second district continues to remain in the tilt Democratic column, even as FiveThirtyEight has moved it back into the tilt Republican column as the result of one C/D rated poll showing Trump leading by eight percent, despite polls in September by Siena College/The New York Times (A+ rated) and Suffolk University (A rated) both showing Biden up. Though Trump did manage to carry this district by a relatively large margin four years ago, that seems to be a fluke. With the state also voting for a Democratic congressman in the 2018 midterms, it seems like Biden may be able to just edge out a slight victory here. Due to that aforementioned C/D poll affecting the forecast, FiveThirtyEight now gives Trump a 54 percent chance of winning here. However, Biden still leads in the polling average, up 1.1 percent.

The last state to talk about is Ohio. I had a lot of trouble classifying this state, considering practically every forecaster who updated their polls recently have the state classified as a tossup. However, I eventually decided to classify it for Biden, even though it did vote for Trump in 2016. Biden does lead by 0.9 percent in the polls, and FiveThirtyEight does expect Biden to win 53 percent of the time. The race is expected to be very close, with the popular vote within 0.5 percent. This comes as a result of a Siena College/The New York Times (A+ rated) and a Fox News (A- rated) poll showing Biden leading. Most nonpartisan polls have shown Biden leading or the race even, too. Add on to the fact that Ohio has voted correctly since 1964, I currently feel inclined to believe that Biden may be able to take a narrow victory in this bellwether state.

Here is a summary of all the changes from the last forecast:

• Arizona moves from likely to lean Democratic.
• Nebraska’s first district moves from safe to likely Republican.
• Texas moves from tilt to lean Republican.
• Iowa moves from lean to tilt Republican.
• Ohio moves from tilt Republican to tilt Democratic.

The presidential race is changing quite quickly as Election Day gets closer and closer. At this point, it seems like the possibility of Trump winning is getting smaller and smaller. A miracle would need to happen for Trump in order to be able to turn this election around, and time is running out for that miracle to happen. People are already voting now, and Biden just continues to expand that lead.

There will be one more prediction in the run-up to Election Day on Nov. 3. A Senate prediction will be coming shortly, too. Make sure to stay tuned for that.

Make sure you go vote as your vote does count. Learn more about voting here. Early voting has begun in a number of states already, such as Texas and Georgia.