Why These States Are No Longer Competitive For the GOP

There are a number of states around the country that were once considered swing states but have staunchly moved in favor of Democrats in recent years. These include the past swing states of (alphabetically) Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. In this post, we are going to be taking a look at why these states are no longer swing states.

Before we start, make sure to check out my presidential and Senate predictions, as well as the guide on American presidential elections, as they are all relevant to this post.

Let’s first take a look at all the states that are at least somewhat competitive on the presidential level.

However, among these, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia are arguably no longer swing states, on virtually all federal levels.

Let’s start by looking at the state of Colorado.

The main liberal areas of Colorado include the city of Denver and its suburbs, Pueblo, and most of its ski resort towns. Republicans are strongest in El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, as well as rural Colorado.

The Centennial State last voted Republican in 2004, when George W. Bush won by a four-point margin. Since then, the state has shifted drastically to the left, when Democratic presidential candidates won the state by nine, five, and five points in 2008, 2012, and 2016 respectively. With the state doing all mail-in elections since 2013 (all eligible voters are automatically sent mail-in ballots), turnout is very high in the state, allowing Democrats to easily cruise to victory. Biden leads by double digits in the state (13.1 percent to be exact) and has a 95 percent chance of winning.

On the Senate level, incumbent Republican Cory Gardner is extremely likely to be ousted in this blue wave year. He is deeply unpopular in the state as he is a staunch supporter of the president, and he is almost certain to lose this year. Democrat John Hickenlooper has led in every single poll, and all pundit forecasters are giving the race to the Democrats. FiveThirtyEight gives Hickenlooper an 81 percent chance of flipping the seat. With Denver growing larger and larger and more and more liberal (the state is expected to go from nine to ten electoral votes following reapportionment from the 2020 census), it seems like the GOP’s days in this state are numbered.

The next state we have is Nevada, the Silver State. Though the Trump campaign has made lots of noise about flipping the state, the state is practically locked down for the Democrats despite only leading by 6.4 percent in the state. The first thing to note is that Republicans are consistently overestimated in statewide polls here. For instance, Trump was actually leading in polling here in 2016, yet Hillary Clinton won by two percent. And like Colorado, it has voted Democratic since George W. Bush’s three-point win in 2004. Obama won the state both times by a seven-point margin. The state has a relatively small population, with just six electoral votes.

There is a clear north-south divide in this state, with the northern part being a Republican stronghold, with the possible exception of Reno, which has grown more Democratic in recent years. However, Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas and is located in the very south of the state, casts 87 percent of the state’s votes and is a solidly Democratic stronghold. Nevada is a good example of how one city is responsible for flipping an entire state: because Las Vegas’s population drastically overshadows the rest of the state, no matter how Republican the rest of the state is, the state still goes to Democrats. This is in part due to domestic migration from Democratic states like California.

With Democrats having a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegations, both U.S. Senate seats, controlling the governorship, and in control of both houses of the Nevada State Legislature, the state is practically a lost cause for the Democrats.

The next state on our list is New Hampshire. Although the presidential race here in 2016 was particularly close, with Hillary Clinton just barely eking out a victory here, the Granite State’s days of being a swing state seem increasingly numbered. It is a very interesting state in terms of demographics—its population is mostly white, yet it leans Democratic. This could be because the state is one of the nation’s most well-educated states, with 36.5 percent of adults having a college degree.

The state is pretty divided when it comes to regional politics. Most of the state’s Republican voters come from business expats from Massachusetts, who come to N.H. to avoid high taxes. Hillsborough County narrowly flipped red in 2016, in part due to 2016 being a Republican wave year. However, that county has voted for Obama both times, and Nashua and Manchester still voting blue that year, it seems 2016 may be just a fluke. Concord, Keene, and Newport are Democratic strongholds, as is Grafton County.

Unlike the rest of the states, the state last went red in 2000, where Bush won the state fairly narrowly. Had Gore won this state instead, and Bush would have lost the presidency, no matter who won Florida. Also, as the state is the first state to hold a presidential primary in the entire nation (Iowa is technically first, but they hold a caucus), virtually all hopeful primary candidates pay a visit to the state.

We do have to remember that although Hillary Clinton only won this state very narrowly four years ago, she was still able to win it in a Republican wave year. That should say enough as to why the state probably isn’t competitive, at least for Trump. In addition, with the N.H. GOP failing to field a good candidate against Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the race is rated as safe Democratic by many forecasters (FiveThirtyEight gives Shaheen a 98 percent chance of winning). It isn’t difficult to say that without a major party restructure, N.H. will probably remain Democratic for the next couple of years. Biden has an 86 percent chance of winning the state.

An interesting quirk is that although all of the state’s U.S. House delegates and senators are controlled by Democrats, as is the state legislature, N.H. has a Republican governor, Chris Sununu. However, because he is a liberal Republican (like the governors of Mass. and Vermont) and doesn’t support many modern GOP policies, he is heavily favored to win reelection.

Next up is New Mexico. The Land of Enchantment is one of the most liberal states among all the ones that we’ll discuss here. This state has a diverse populace: as of 2018, only 28 percent of the state is non-Hispanic white. 11 percent of the state population consists of American Indians and 55 percent are Hispanics. In general, a diverse population indicates a more liberal-leaning one, as minority voters tend to overwhelmingly vote Democratic. The state has a small population with just five electoral votes, so on the national landscape, it isn’t too important.

The state also last went red in 2004, when Bush won by a 0.7 percent margin. After that, Democrats have won by high single-digits or double-digits, pushing it firmly out of the swing state column. Democrats are strongest in the state’s two large cities, Albuquerque and Santa Fe, as well in Native American reservations like the Navajo Nation (in the northwestern part of the state).

The state has been rated as safe Democratic by FiveThirtyEight (97 percent chance of winning), The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, CNN, The Economist, and more. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Politico rate it as likely Democratic. Polling data indicates Biden leading by over 13 percent.

Again, with Democrats controlling all of its U.S. House delegations, both its U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, and both houses of the N.M. State Legislature, the state is all but gone for the Republican party.

The last state left on our list is Virginia. Nowhere has the GOP lost support quicker, and made so irrelevant so quickly, as it has in Virginia. Long a Republican stronghold, the state voted for Bush by an eight-point margin in 2004 and voted for Republicans (bar once) since 1952. Yet, in 2016, it voted for Hillary Clinton by a margin of five percent, becoming the only state in which Bill Clinton lost both times but was won by his wife. In just two decades, the state oversaw a major political realignment.

Most of the state’s population is located in the Washington, D.C. suburbs in the northeastern part of the state and in the Virginia Beach-Norfolk metropolitan area. These areas, along with Richmond, are the Democrats’ main strongholds in the state. Growth in these parts of the state has resulted in Democrats’ recent major gains in the state. Though rural Virginia, especially the western part of the state, has grown more conservative, it isn’t enough to overcome the huge growth in areas such as Northern Virginia.

After the 2010 midterms, Republicans held an 8-3 majority in the state’s U.S. House delegations. Today, Democrats hold a 7-4 majority and are hoping to pick up a new seat this year too. In fact, since 2009, Republicans have lost every single statewide race in Virginia, and both chambers of the Virginia State Legislature flipped blue in 2019. The governor is also a Democrat. The state’s drastic and rapid leftward shift is very important to emphasize—no other state has seen such a dramatic shift away from one party so quickly in recent history.

With the Trump campaign totally ignoring the state this year and with Biden leading by 13.4 percent and having a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the state, it’s safe to say that Virginia will become a safe Democratic state, joining the likes of the Northeast and the West Coast.

In conclusion, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, which give 37 electoral votes combined, are just simply not competitive for the GOP anymore. While I could see a very slight possibility of New Hampshire being somewhat competitive in the future, I expect the rest of these states to get bluer and bluer in the next couple of elections. The Democrats have already made significant inroads in these states that will probably be too difficult for the GOP to overcome unless something fundamental about the GOP changes. Our map looks like this now:

Even if you live in one of these states that are almost certain to go to Biden, you should still vote, as your vote matters, especially in down-ballot elections. Learn more about voting here.

Take a look at our other state analyses as well. I have already covered the following swing states and districts: Arizona, Montana, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Kansas, and Nebraska’s 2nd district and Maine’s 2nd district. Stay tuned for more posts just like this one.

Check out our 2020 election coverage page for more on the election.