We are now just 12 days away from Election Day, and with 40 million people casting their ballots already based on the U.S. Elections Project, Joe Biden continues to maintain a double-digit lead in the national polling averages on FiveThirtyEight. Today, we’re going to take a look at how the Electoral College map may look like based purely off of polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and making use of RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages as well.
Nationwide, Joe Biden has maintained a double-digit lead for over two weeks. Though this number is expected to narrow slightly, there is no doubt that Biden is dominating in the polls. Though the average has moved down about one percent in a few days, that is likely due to some outlier polls from IBD/TIPP showing Biden up only two, three percent, and some from low-quality pollster SurveyMonkey, with different results all the time. Among highly rated pollsters like Siena College/The New York Times (A+ rated), SurveyUSA (A rated), Public Religion Research Institute (A/B rated), Marist College (A+ rated), NBC News/The Wall Street Journal (A- rated), and the University of Massachusetts Lowell (A/B rated), Biden is either leading by high single digits or well into the double digits. (Polling average date lags slightly behind real-time due to poll release embargoes and so on.)
There is no doubt that Biden is doing well on the polling front, and as we’ll see, he’s doing very well in many swing states, too.
In case you’re not familiar with margin colors used in these maps, the order is as follows (the darker the color, the safer a state is for a candidate):
- If the lead is greater than or equal to 15 percent, the state is “safe”;
- If the lead is between five and 15 percent, the state is “likely”;
- If the lead is between one and five percent, the state is “lean”; and
- If the lead is within one percent, the state is “tilt.”
It is important to note that lean and, especially, tilt states can typically go either way. Most polls have margins of errors between two and four percentage points in either direction. (In 2016, the only state outside of this margin of error was Wisconsin, which had Hillary Clinton up by about six percent but ended up going to Trump by 0.7 percent.)
Let’s take a look at some of the safe states. We’ll focus on FiveThirtyEight averages because they also weigh polls by pollster quality and accuracy, so we get a better picture than on RCP.
What is surprising right off the bat are the safe states, or rather, the lack of them. Though Joe Biden has 183 safe electoral votes based on the polls, Trump only has 46. Now, I would like to point out that states like South Dakota or Tennessee should really be in this column, but due to the lack of data in these states, polls from low-grade pollsters really do shift the average enough that these states just barely make it into the likely column.
Most of these states aren’t too surprising, especially for Joe Biden. His lead is very solid in most of these states. For instance, in California, Biden leads by almost 31 percent, and in Massachusetts, Biden leads by 38 percent.
Moving on, let’s go to the likely states. We’ll start with the likely Trump states. Do note that due to the large range this characterization covers, quite a large spread of states fall into this column, even though there are drastic differences between them.
In a normal year, the majority of these states (perhaps except Montana and South Carolina) should be safe for the Republicans. I mean, Trump won by an almost 30-point margin four years ago in places like South Dakota. Admittedly, some polls from D- rated pollster SurveyMonkey has skewed the average there by quite a lot, making the state just barely fall into this column with a 14.8 percent lead.
The rest of these aren’t too surprising. Even on the Newshacker Blog presidential prediction (early October), Ind., Kan., Mo., Miss., Mont., S.C., and Utah fits into this category too.
Moving swiftly on, we have the likely Biden states.
The first noteworthy thing is that Biden has already won the election with just safe and likely states. That is very major as it means that Trump can win every other swing state, but he will still lose. This is mainly due to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined being the tipping point state (the state which puts a candidate’s total vote count over the winning threshold of 270) almost 40 percent of the time.
Maine at-large almost makes it into the safe column, with Biden leading by 14.8 percent. The at-large vote of Maine is practically guaranteed to go to Biden despite Clinton winning it by just three percent four years ago.
Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire are among the safest of the states in this category. Biden leads by double-digits in all of these states: 12.9, 12.7, 12.4, and 11.6 points respectively. These states have been locked down by the Democrats, and despite some GOP efforts saying N.H. is competitive, it definitely isn’t, at least this election.
In the Rust Belt, Biden leads comfortably in all of the states. In Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 8.0, 7.9, 7.3, and 6.2 percent respectively. Notably, despite Hillary Clinton winning Minn. but not the other three in 2016, Mich. is slightly better for Biden than Minn. is. Though in Penn. the average for Biden has dwindled slightly, he is still the clear favorite to win based on this data.
Surprisingly, Nebraska’s second district is very safe for Democrats, even more so than Nevada, which we’ll talk about later. Though nonpartisan polling in the district has been scarce, on the Siena College/New York Times poll, Biden leads by seven points. And on the average, Biden leads by a whopping 7.2 percent in this traditionally Republican-leaning district. It seems like Biden’s campaign has resonated well with Omahans, at least based on the polls.
The last state to make it onto this list is Nevada, a state that Clinton did win four years ago. Though Biden leads by “just” 6.4 percent, because of how the Las Vegas metropolitan area generally votes and based on vote trends, Democrats are the clear favorites to win the state.
We’ll now talk about the lean Trump states. There are four characterizations in this group: Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Nebraska’s first district.
Firstly, just to get it out of the way, the only reason Nebraska’s first district makes it onto this list is due to scarce polling data. The only poll from the district is a Democratic internal showing Trump leading by just two percent. Though it definitely is an outlier, we will still use it anyway because there are no other polls. However, based on how much the second district has moved for Biden, the first district will probably go to Trump by just a likely margin.
Alaska also barely makes it onto here with Trump leading by 4.8 percent. Alaska is actually way closer than most people think: in fact, on FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, Biden has a 22 percent chance of carrying the state, which is more than Trump’s chances at any of the states in the Democrats’ likely column. The state also has a competitive U.S. Senate race. However, by the time this state’s polls closes at 1 a.m., we will already have a general picture of who is winning.
Texas shows Trump leading by just 1.3 percent in this formerly GOP stronghold. Read the analysis for a detailed discussion on Lone Star State politics but as a summary, due to population growth, the state is becoming bluer and bluer, and this year is the first year in which Democrats actually have a realistic shot at the state. Polls have shown the race neck-and-neck.
Lastly, we have Ohio, the nation’s longest-lasting presidential bellwether seems like it will lose its streak based on polling. After a brief period where Biden led, Trump is now up again by 1.0 percent. Again, due to the state’s swingy nature, it is still hotly contested, and again, is anybody’s race. However, it is to be noted that Trump won by eight percent here, so Trump is more favored than Biden to win here. Interestingly, Iowa leans to the left of Ohio on polling numbers, so this will be the state to keep an eye on election night.
Now, let’s go to the lean Democratic states. The rest of the states fit in this category, as there are no tilt states.
Arizona is the state in which Biden leads by the most in this column, at 3.8 percent. Like Texas, population growth is fast making the state blue, and with Democrats’ major wins here in the 2018 midterms, Biden is the favorite to carry the state.
The next state is Florida, where Biden leads by 3.5 percent. I would definitely take Florida’s numbers with a huge grain of salt, because Florida always seems to swing on a knife’s edge, with most candidates winning within one or two percent. Even so, Biden is still the favorite to win this slightly GOP-leaning swing state.
North Carolina is a state in which the Democrats have made considerable gains in. Previously, the Democrats were only leading by one or two percent, but that has jumped to 3.1 percent. Again, due to the state’s Republican lean, the state will probably vote to Biden by a margin less than that, though Biden is a very slight favorite to win.
In Maine’s second district, Biden leads by 2.4 percent. In a surprising vote, the district went to Trump by almost 10 percent four years ago, so this is quite a large swing. However, data has been scarce in this district, so until Election Day, this district will remain largely anyone’s race. It is a pure tossup on most projections.
In Iowa, Biden leads by 1.1 percent. Polling has been both ways in this state lately: Biden leads in some polls, Trump leads in others. The newest polls from Monmouth University, though, released today, show Biden up by three to five percent, so Biden could definitely win in Iowa. However, due to the state’s red tilt in recent years, despite the polls, most forecasters are still expecting a narrow Trump victory here.
Finally, in Georgia, the closest state, Biden surprisingly leads by 1.o percent. Most of Georgia’s Democratic voters come from the Atlanta metropolitan area, and though recent polling data has been generally better for Biden than Trump, voter suppression by the GOP will probably result in Trump winning the state. However, it is still very competitive, so it could still go either way.
In conclusion, polling data is looking up for Joe Biden. He is leading in most polls in most swing states and dominates nationally, and he is by far the favorite to win. Still, weirder things have happened this year, so we must not count Trump out yet.
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Polling data is correct as of writing. Polling data may have changed since writing.