Welcome to the final installment of the Newshacker Blog U.S. Senate election prediction. This will be the final prediction from this blog for the Senate elections from now through to Election Day. 91 million Americans have already voted early, based on data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project, and with this year expected to be a Democratic wave year, the Democrats ride high with a 73 percent chance of gaining a trifecta in government.
To anyone not familiar with how U.S. Senate elections work, one-third of all senators are up for election every two years, with each senator serving six-year terms. This year, 33 Class II Senate seats are up for election (or reelection), and there are two special elections—one in Arizona and one in Georgia—bringing the total of seats up for election this year to 35. This also means Georgia is the only state this election cycle to have both of its Senate seats up for election.
Note that each state gets two senators, no matter its population. This has resulted in the Senate having a major rural tilt.
On the national level, the Democrats currently have a 73 percent chance of gaining the Senate majority based on FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Senate forecast, which considers polling, demographics, history, fundraising, and other pundit forecasters’ ratings.
When looking at FiveThirtyEight’s Lite forecast, which considers only polling data, the chance increases to a 77 percent chance for a Democratic majority. FiveThirtyEight is a highly revered website for aggregating polling data and forecasting elections. In 2016, they were one of few forecasters that still gave Trump a 30 percent chance of victory on Election Day and pointed out Trump was only a polling error away from winning.
The Economist also has a well-established forecast model. Their forecast gives the Democrats a 74 percent chance of winning the Senate, almost on par with FiveThirtyEight.
Also, in the event of a 50-50 tie in the Senate, the Vice President, being the President of the Senate, gives the majority to his or her party. This means that, since Kamala Harris is expected to win, the Democrats will have a Senate majority with just 50 seats.
In case you’re not familiar with margin colors used in these maps, the order is as follows (the darker the color, the safer a state is for a candidate):
- If the winning margin is expected to be greater than or equal to 15 percent, the state is “safe”;
- If the winning margin is expected to be between five and 15 percent, the state is “likely”;
- If the winning margin is expected to be between one and five percent, the state is “lean”; and
- If the winning margin is expected to be within one percent, the state is “tilt.”
We’ll now start with the safe states.
In a normal election year, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia would probably only be likely for the Democrats, but this is such a strong year for the Democrats that they are expected to win big in these Senate races. FiveThirtyEight puts Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Ben Luján (D) (open race), and Mark Warner (D-Va.)’s expected winning margins at 17, 15, and 18 percent respectively. Polls are showing those candidates leading by similar margins, too. Shaheen, Luján, and Warner will almost certainly have no issues carrying their states. Pundit forecasters, like The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight, and more have rated these races as safe, too. (Sabato’s Crystal Ball has these races at likely.)
Except for N.M., where Luján has a 95 percent chance of winning on FiveThirtyEight, the rest of these states have a 97 percent chance (or better) of going to their respective candidates. Most of these have a greater than 99 percent chance of voting a certain way.
For reference, here are the rest of the candidates in the safe states. (Incumbents are denoted with an “I.”)
| State | Expected Winner | Challenger |
| Arkansas | I: Tom Cotton (R) | No Democratic challenger |
| Delaware | I: Christopher Coons (D) | Lauren Witzke (R) |
| Idaho | I: Jim Risch (R) | Paulette Jordan (D) |
| Illinois | I: Richard Durbin (D) | Mark Curran (R) |
| Louisiana* | I: Bill Casidy (R) | Antoine Pierce/Peter Wenstrup (D) |
| Massachusetts | I: Ed Markey (D) | Kevin O’Connor (R) |
| Nebraska | I: Ben Sasse (R) | Chris Janicek (D) |
| New Hampshire | I: Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Corky Messner (R) |
| New Jersey | I: Cory Booker (D) | Rikin Mehta (R) |
| New Mexico | Ben Luján (D) | Mark Ronchetti (R) |
| Oklahoma | I: Jim Inhofe (R) | Abby Broyles (D) |
| Oregon | I: Jeff Merkley (D) | Jo Perkins (R) |
| Rhode Island | I: Jack Reed (D) | Allen Waters (R) |
| South Dakota | I: Mike Rounds (R) | Dan Ahlers (D) |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | Marquita Bradshaw (D) |
| Virginia | I: Mark Warner (D) | Daniel Gade (R) |
| West Virginia | I: Shelley Capito (R) | Paula Swearengin (D) |
| Wyoming | Cynthia Lummis (R) | Merav Ben-David (D) |
*Louisiana uses a runoff election model, where all candidates appear on the same ballot. If no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote share, the race will proceed into a runoff election held at a later date.
As seen from the map above, that leaves 17 states with at least somewhat competitive races. And among these, a whopping three races have Democratic incumbents. The rest are all Republicans playing defense—a sign that shows how bad the GOP’s position is heading into this election. Let’s now move on to the likely states.
Probably the safest race in this category is Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)’s race in Kentucky. Even though McConnell is very unpopular with his constituents, the fact that he is a Republican should be enough to allow him to win his race against challenger Amy McGrath (D). Kentucky is a ruby-red state that practically votes along party lines, so it will be insanely difficult for McGrath to pull off a victory here. McConnell has a 96 percent chance of winning on FiveThirtyEight, but it is expected that his winning margin will be just under 15 percent—possibly 13 or 14 percent.
Mississippi has also been locked down for incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). Mississippi is traditionally a deeply conservative, ruby-red Bible Belt state in the Deep South, so Republicans usually have no trouble winning the state. Because Black turnout is expected to be higher this election, though, challenger Mike Espy (D) will probably fare better than previous candidates in this race. Despite Espy being a very strong candidate for this race, again, due to demographics, the chances of him winning are slim. Hyde-Smith has an 85 percent chance of claiming victory on FiveThirtyEight. However, the state has been very sparsely polled, and Mississippi’s early voting system is very lackluster, so we may only know who even has a lead on Election Day.
Alabama is the only state with a Democratic incumbent that is expected to flip for the Republicans this year. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) was elected in a 2017 special election against a candidate who had a number of major child molestation allegations come out against him, and so Jones was able to pull off a narrow victory in this extremely conservative state. Unfortunately for Jones, this year, he isn’t running against someone with a scandal. Instead, he’s running against Tommy Tuberville (R), who, although isn’t too well-known in the state, is all but certain to win due to the redness of this state and a large amount of party-line voting and the fact that the Republican administration has endorsed him. Even though Tuberville is “only” at a 80 percent chance of victory based on FiveThirtyEight, it seems hugely unlikely a Democrat will be able to win another statewide race here, based on polling data showing Tuberville ahead. Pundit forecasters are split on rating this race as likely or lean Republican, but none have it as a tossup.
Surprisingly, the now-solid blue state of Colorado has a Republican incumbent, Cory Gardner (R-Colo.). He has been a staunch supporter of the president and is a surefire GOP party-line voter, so it isn’t surprising that it is highly likely he will be ousted this year. With John Hickenlooper (D) being well-known throughout the state and Colorado’s anti-GOP sentiment in recent years, Hickenlooper is enjoying an 85 percent chance of victory, and pundit forecasters rate the race for him too. Polling data has been strong for him as well.
As I’ve discussed many times now, Arizona is moving further and further to the left, and is evident in the Democrats’ strong performance in the state in the 2018 midterms, with the party flipping a Senate seat and winning the majority of the state’s delegations to the U.S. House. That streak is set to continue this year when appointed incumbent Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) is expected to lose to Mark Kelly (D). McSally actually lost the Senate race in 2018, so when she was appointed to this seat after John McCain died, it was a surprise to many people. Since she was already rejected by Arizonan voters once, her chances of being (re)elected are slim. Kelly, a well-known candidate and former astronaut, has an 81 percent chance of winning. No pundit forecaster rates this race as a tossup; all rate it for Kelly.
Minnesota is another state the Democrats have virtually locked down, on all levels. It is more liberal than the other Rust Belt states of Mich., Wis., and Pa., and so it’s no surprise that incumbent Tina Smith (D-Minn.) is expected to be reelected over challenger Jason Lewis (R). Smith has a whopping 93 percent chance of being reelected.
Michigan is the last lean state on the list. Though Michigan voted for Donald Trump four years ago (albeit by only 0.27 percent), it seems to have shifted back to the left, especially after the 2018 midterms where Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won the governorship. As a result, incumbent Gary Peters (D-Mich.) has an 82 percent chance of keeping his seat over John James (R).
We now get into the more competitive lean states. In these states, an upset is possible, but one candidate has a clear edge.
Texas is a very competitive state on the presidential level, with Biden and Trump within a half-percentage point of each other, but it seems like M.J. Hegar (D) hasn’t been able to make so many inroads to try and defeat incumbent John Cornyn (R-Texas). To put it plainly, Hegar simply isn’t known enough in the state, unlike Beto O’Rourke who came very close to flipping Ted Cruz (R-Texas)’s seat two years ago (the margin was three percent). The lack of name recognition is hurting her in Texas, a state that is fast turning blue. With Cornyn having an 86 percent chance of victory, it seems likely the earliest we could see a Democratic Texan senator is in 2024. Though the race is quite close based on polling, Hegar would need more than a polling error in order to win. Pundit forecasters agree: the race is rated as likely by the Crystal Ball and FiveThirtyEight, while Inside Elections, Cook, and Politico have the race as lean. This race has actually moved from likely to lean compared to this blog’s previous prediction, simply because turnout in Texas has been so overwhelming.
A new lean Republican race is Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)’s race in the more libertarian-leaning state of Alaska. Sullivan and Alaska’s other senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) couldn’t be more different: Sullivan is a staunch supporter of the president, while Murkowski is more willing to break with her party on certain issues. Cook, Sabato, and Politico rate this race as lean, and Sullivan has a 75 percent chance of winning, with polls generally favoring him. Due to the race being much closer than expected, I have moved it from likely Republican to lean Republican, as now, the race is projected to go to Sullivan by only three to four points. For challenger Al Gross (Independent, but caucuses with Democrats) to win, he will need to dramatically ramp up Native American turnout.
Montana is another traditionally red state that has a competitive Senate race this year. Incumbent Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is facing a major challenge from Montana’s current Democratic governor, Steve Bullock (D), who is unable to run for governor again due to term limits. Interestingly, Montana already has one Democratic senator, so if Bullock can win, the state will be sending two Democrats to Washington. However, the state’s red lean added with the fact that Republican super PACs have been spending a lot of money into this race results in this race being favored to go to Daines, who has a 65 percent chance of winning. The race is certainly close though, with both candidates in the low single digits in the polls, and aside from the Crystal Ball and FiveThirtyEight, which rate this race as lean Republican, the rest, including Cook, rate this race as a tossup.
As I have previously explained, Kansas is seeing one of its most competitive Senate races in a long time. This is an open Senate race, and Barbara Bollier (D) will be facing off against Roger Marshall (R). Though Marshall is still a favorite to win in this ruby-red Great Plains state, the race here is actually more narrow than races in states like Michigan and Texas. Marshall only has a 75 percent chance of winning, and pundit forecasters are reluctant to rate the race any more solid than lean. Polls have shown Bollier and Marshall neck-and-neck.
Finally, the last lean Republican state is South Carolina, which I moved from tilt to lean Republican. Again, this is another shocking state which has moved from very solid for the GOP to practically a tossup (understand more). The reason for the characterization change is simply because I don’t believe that the race will be decided by a margin of less than one percent. However, I do believe that this will be one of the more contested Senate seats in this area, and will probably be decided by a margin of one to two percent. Incumbent Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is facing a formidable challenge from Jaime Harrison (D), who is consistently out-fundraising him. Though an upset is not out of the question, Graham still has a 76 percent chance of victory, and Republican super PACs have been pouring money into the race. Still, Cook rates the race as a tossup, Inside Elections as tilt Republican, and lean Republican by the Crystal Ball and Politico.
Moving on, we have Maine. Now, prior to Donald Trump’s presidency, this race would’ve been solid Republican. Longtime incumbent Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been very popular in the state due to her bipartisanship and willingness to split with her party. However, a number of pro-Trump decisions have dramatically reduced her popularity in the state, causing her to drop from the most popular senator in Washington to the last popular. This has opened up a window for the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, Sara Gideon (D) to challenge Collins for her seat. With Gideon having a 60 percent chance of victory, polls showing her leading, and pundit forecasters like the Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and FiveThirtyEight rating the race for her, Collins is facing the first-ever competitive race in her political career.
In North Carolina, a hotly competitive swing state on all levels this year, challenger Cal Cunningham (D) is doing surprisingly well compared to the state’s unpopular GOP senator, Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Despite a “sexting” scandal, Cunningham’s poll numbers have barely budged, as it seems like most people have made up their minds already. Cunningham has continued to lead in every poll in the state, and that has given him a 64 percent chance of victory here. That said, this is still a very competitive Senate seat, and if Cunningham fails to win it, it could cost the Democrats a majority in the Senate.
The last state on this list is Iowa, which I have moved from tilt to lean Democrat. Like S.C., it feels like the race simply won’t be decided by such a narrow margin, considering the fact that challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) is doing so well against incumbent Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). By percentage chance alone, this is the most competitive Senate seat this year, with a 51 percent chance of going to Greenfield. Interestingly, the Crystal Ball has rated this race as lean Democratic, the first of any forecaster to move the race out of the tossup column. Considering that this year is expected to be a blue wave year, Greenfield is slightly favored to win this race.
Also, I would like to point out that the Selzer & Co. poll is an outlier. On the presidential level, it showed Trump up by seven percent in that state, when all other polls have been showing a tight race. As such, I would regard this poll less highly.
We now get to the two most competitive Senate races of this season, and both of them are in Georgia.
Let’s start off with Georgia‘s normal Senate election. This is an extremely close race with incumbent David Purdue (R-Ga.) in a neck-and-neck race with Jon Ossoff (D). With Georgia having a turnout rate rivaling that of so many other states this year despite massive and blatant voter suppression, Georgia is, for the first time, seeing competitive presidential and Senate races. That has opened the door for Democrats to make inroads in the state, especially around the heavily Democratic Atlanta metropolitan area. Purdue only has a 58 percent chance of victory, down from 70 percent just a week ago. This is in part due to Ossoff seeing many favorable polls from high-quality pollsters. It seems like massive voter turnout could potentially drive this race in Ossoff’s favor.
The result of the special election in Georgia will be highly dependent on turnout in the runoff. Basically, how this special election will work is that instead of holding primaries, all candidates who want this seat will appear on the same ballot in November. Currently, there are two Republicans, Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) and Doug Collins (R), as well one Democrat, Raphael Warnock (D), who are considered the front-runners of this race. If no candidate gets above 50 percent of the vote in November (which is all but certain to happen), the race will proceed into a runoff, where the top two vote-getters will face off in January. Polling data has indicated that the two most likely candidates to proceed to the runoff are Loeffler and Warnock. Thus, the outcome of the race will depend on whether Democrats turn out to vote in the January runoff. If turnout continues to be high in the runoff, Warnock should be able to win, based on runoff polling data. Thus, this race is rated as tilt Democratic for now, but this race will be revisited later. On FiveThirtyEight, Warnock has jumped up to a 63 percent chance of winning, a more than 10 percent increase in just two days.
That gives us the final no tossups projection from the Newshacker Blog. From the previous post, the following race ratings changed:
- Georgia (Special) moves from tilt Republican to tilt Democratic.
- Iowa moves from tilt to lean Democratic.
- Texas moves from likely to lean Republican.
- Alaska moves from likely to lean Republican.
- South Carolina moves from tilt to lean Republican.
To summarize, the map is as follows:
Include tossups, and here is how I would rate the race:
Since Iowa, N.C., S.C., and Ga. are seeing such close races, I would rate them as a tossup. Amazingly, with a Biden/Harris presidency, the Democrats only need to net one seat out of seven in order to have the majority, a sign that shows how strong a position the Democrats are in.
In conclusion, keep your eyes peeled on the following races on election night. They will likely make or break the election.
In any case, the Democrats still lead on this map. If Biden wins the presidency, the Democrats need only to win five seats, and on this map, only two seats (Alabama and Michigan) have Democratic incumbents. The rest are all Republican-held. Again, this is a good sign of how strongly the Democrats are doing this season.
See how the race progressed thoughout the campaign season by looking at our prior predictions:
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Make sure to check out the final Newshacker Blog Electoral College prediction and gubernatorial race prediction as well.
Check out our 2020 election coverage page for more on the election.
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